re: COVID was smeared all over Metro-NYC for weeks and weeks... 1/10 of 1% death rate?

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I agree, but you say that around here and people lose their damned minds.

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Well, it does beg the question -- is 5X the flu worth a Great Depression?
Is 5X the flu a reasonable rationale for abrogation of swaths of Constitutional rights?

I think those are more the issues people are "losing their damned minds" over.
They want to know why we are still shutdown.

So why are we still shutdown?
We were put in a terrible box by Redfield, Messonnier, Lindstrom and the CDCLabs. They left US without deployable tests just as CV19 hit. It was a catastrophic blunder.

But once it occurred, the only real alternative we had was to shutdown until we could beef up test availability, hospital supplies, and get a better understanding of the virus.

The shutdown was marketed to the public as "flattening the curve." It was the right approach.

Though "flattening the curve" bought us some time, it was never a long term solution. Unfortunately, many politicians lost sight of that fact. For them, shutdown is no longer a bridge. It is a destination.

As folks absorb personal economic desolation, they are going to quickly become intolerant of political ineptitude, lack of vision, and lack of insight.

IMO, the CV19-Flu comparisons are driven in large part by those frustrations.

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A really bad flu season would be 80k deaths, or about 240 per million population.

Covid deaths per million so far:

NY 1242
NJ 872
CT 680
MA 563
LA 427
MI 404

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Covid deaths per million per pop is 204 according to Worldmeter.

I'll grant you the so far.

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Data during this period are incomplete because of the lag in time between when the death occurred and when the death certificate is completed, submitted to NCHS and processed for reporting purposes. This delay can range from 1 week to 8 weeks or more, depending on the jurisdiction, age, and cause of death.

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Did you even read the fine print?

Then you leave off another column with 16K deaths

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Post a link to your stats

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Why?I just yours

This is the update from the Cuomo press conference yesterday:

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NYC overall: 19.9% positive for antibodies.

Bronx: 27.6%
Brooklyn: 19.2%
Manhattan: 17.3%
Queens: 18.4%
Staten Island: 19.2%

(Results are weighted.)

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Using the NYC antibody data we can rough sketch a few things.

Mortality is approximately 157 per 100,000 for NYC. We can calculate this using the current population and the current death count for NYC.

Mortality for the flu, depending on what data set you use, runs b/w 3 - 15 per 100,000.

nCFR for NYC is 7.52%, that is the theoretical high point and we know that it will go down at some point in the future as more cases are confirmed.

Using the antibody data we get an IFR of 0.76%.

There are a number of known biases when dealing with this kind of data. For a long time, we only had confirmed cases and deaths. Using those numbers produces serious issues and that is why it is called the "Naive" CFR. With the antibody data, we are starting to address the bias of not knowing the true number of infections. We will get better and more widespread antibody data over time and that will allow for more accurate calculations. We are still faced with the bias of not knowing how many people infected now may eventually die but that should become less of an issue as the data set gets larger.

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Mortality is approximately 157 per 100,000 for NYC. We can calculate this using the current population and the current death count for NYC.

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Which current death count?

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All data is incomplete

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LMAO! Says the guy who just posted posted a definitive "death's rate off stats with admitted "lag times"

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That is the column that likely contains the most blatant medicare fraud misrepresentations

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You KNOW this how? Nobody knows so stop pretending that you do.

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HOWEVER, even if you INCLUDED the last column, you still only have 23,000 deaths.

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Once again.

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Data during this period are incomplete because of the lag in time between when the death occurred and when the death certificate is completed, submitted to NCHS and processed for reporting purposes. This delay can range from 1 week to 8 weeks or more, depending on the jurisdiction, age, and cause of death.

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Do you want me to highlight it again?

BTW,are you actually trying to tell me this the final count?

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INCLUDES all of New Jersey... South New Jersey, Central New Jersey, and the Jersey Shore

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Western Connecticut?

Doesn't change the fact that the tri state area is still the worse place on the planet for the outbreak.

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And, yes genius. I left out the column "deaths with" pneumonia, and "deaths with" COVID

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Why would you do that? So CV-19 wasn't a factor in their deaths?

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Well, it does beg the question -- is 5X the flu worth a Great Depression?
Is 5X the flu a reasonable rationale for abrogation of swaths of Constitutional rights?

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Great questions, and my answer is "no".

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I think those are more the issues people are "losing their damned minds" over.
They want to know why we are still shutdown.

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That is the root cause of the mind-losing, yes, but IMO the discussion about how to handle this politically has to start with an honest look at the risks. And a lot of this board doesn't want anything to do with honesty when discussing the risks.

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So why are we still shutdown?
We were put in a terrible box by Redfield, Messonnier, Lindstrom and the CDCLabs. They left US without deployable tests just as CV19 hit. It was a catastrophic blunder.

But once it occurred, the only real alternative we had was to shutdown until we could beef up test availability, hospital supplies, and get a better understanding of the virus.

The shutdown was marketed to the public as "flattening the curve." It was the right approach.

Though "flattening the curve" bought us some time, it was never a long term solution. Unfortunately, many politicians lost sight of that fact. For them, shutdown is no longer a bridge. It is a destination.

As folks absorb personal economic desolation, they are going to quickly become intolerant of political ineptitude, lack of vision, and lack of insight.

IMO, the CV19-Flu comparisons are driven in large part by those frustrations.

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Yep. But for me frustration doesn't justify the spread of lies and misinformation. It also doesn't justify calling someone a "pussy" or similar because they think this virus is more dangerous than you do.

The only way to get through this is to face the truth and bring the truth. All this fighting lies with lies gets us nowhere.

Back to the point of this Topic...

Since Jan of 2020, NYC's subway system has been a 'Steaming Pot of Virus Stew'... yet the death rate has been FAR below initial predictions.






Here is my point again (Since you seem to be lost):

My point hasn't changed. New Yorker's had been swimming in COVID-19 sheddings from January thru March, yet the death rate (total population divided by COVID deaths) in Metropolitan NYC is in the range of 1/10th of 1%.

This virus had every opportunity to explode catastrophically in Metro NYC, but it did not. This is NOT the plague. This is a serious flu-like virus, but not the mega-disaster sold to us by MSM and the CDC/NIH/IHME/WHO/Gates Foundation, etc.

Extensive antibody testing in Metro NYC has been totally ignored by the CDC/NIH. High time for an IMMEDIATE federal testing program in NYC.

Coumo's antibody testing indicates 4 to 5 million asymptomatic cases among Metro NYC's 20,000,000 residents.

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Since Jan of 2020, NYC's subway system has been a 'Steaming Pot of Virus Stew'... yet the death rate has been FAR below initial predictions.

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Why must you keep arguing against the strawman and his "initial predictions"?

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My point hasn't changed. New Yorker's had been swimming in COVID-19 sheddings from January thru March, yet the death rate (total population divided by COVID deaths) in Metropolitan NYC is in the range of 1/10th of 1%.

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And with the fatality rate estimations since at least back to March, with 100% of a population contracting the virus we would not expect much more than 1/2 of 1% of them to die.

What exactly is the point you're trying to make, and who is your target audience? Because framing it as you've done and always do, you have zero chance of having a meaningful discussion with the people you would seemingly be trying to sway. The only possible outcome of your antics is a circle-jerk with those who already think like you do, where any rational discussion is dismissed outright.

It's not productive at all, but if circle-jerks are your thing, and it seems like they are, have fun. Just understand that's what this is.

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So 330,000 nationwide?

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If everyone nationwide rode to work and back in jam-packed subway cars at the height of the virus's contagion? And with no heightened hygienic practices?

Then, 330K on the high end, wouldn't surprise me. Particularly when the vast majority of the 330K would likely be elderly and with co-morbidities (and with a hefty measure of false reporting on death certificates - encouraged by federal agencies)