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Started By
Message
re: Cocaine Mitch doesn’t have the votes yet, as of this morning
Posted on 10/5/18 at 7:46 am to SCLibertarian
Posted on 10/5/18 at 7:46 am to SCLibertarian
quote:
Murkowski will not survive a no vote. In 2010, she won as an Independent after losing the Republican Primary because the party establishment supported her over the Tea Party candidate. Kavanaugh is pure GOP establishment and liked by Bush Republicans. If Murkowski votes no, she loses the demographic that saved her in 2010.
There is so much time between now and when she's up for re-election, I just don't think it will matter much.
2
Posted on 10/5/18 at 7:46 am to Dale51
quote:Lol they wish. They’ll get a meeting with Hillary in a bad part of DC at 2am.
I have my doubts. Anyone who crosses the dem mob family will get the same treatment as a "guilty" conservative gets now.
Posted on 10/5/18 at 7:50 am to Dale51
quote:
Why is Falke meeting with Coons again? Whats the deal with Flakes bromance with Coons? It just seems kinda creepy.
It seems they are gearing up for a run in 2020
Posted on 10/5/18 at 7:52 am to The Pirate King
That would be awesome. What a great ticket for the Dims
Posted on 10/5/18 at 7:54 am to moneyg
quote:
There is so much time between now and when she's up for re-election, I just don't think it will matter much.
Alaska is a very weird state too. I honestly have no clue what her constituents even feel about this vote.
Posted on 10/5/18 at 8:05 am to Icansee4miles
It's totally unconventional, but that's Trump. I think he told Cocaine Mitch to call the vote.
If Kavanaugh doesn't get voted in:
- the travesty that the dems accomplished should lead to a red wave election in the senate, as the Ds in states Trump carried will have that vote hanging around their neck in the upcoming election.
- The Rs who vote against him also will have to defend that in their next re-election effort.
- Trump will re-nominate him when there are more Rs in the senate.
If he does squeak by with 50 votes:
- Rs get the win just before the election and the Ds in states Trump won must face the voters having made that vote
- the Rs who vote against him are on record for their next primary as well.
It's a risky play but it could be win/win.
If Kavanaugh doesn't get voted in:
- the travesty that the dems accomplished should lead to a red wave election in the senate, as the Ds in states Trump carried will have that vote hanging around their neck in the upcoming election.
- The Rs who vote against him also will have to defend that in their next re-election effort.
- Trump will re-nominate him when there are more Rs in the senate.
If he does squeak by with 50 votes:
- Rs get the win just before the election and the Ds in states Trump won must face the voters having made that vote
- the Rs who vote against him are on record for their next primary as well.
It's a risky play but it could be win/win.
Posted on 10/5/18 at 8:07 am to Northwestern tiger
Mitch needs to start yelling at the 4 undecided whent hey get on the elevators!!
Posted on 10/5/18 at 8:27 am to Jimmy2shoes
There is absolutely no risk on Trump's side, as you detailed. Put them on the record, renominate again. Republicans needed something to galvanize their voters and they now have it. Dems overplayed their hand.
Posted on 10/5/18 at 8:38 am to Fireman17
quote:
Trying to be McCain cause he is dead?
Could be, but at least McCain was a little more subtle. He didn't practically move into Pelosi's spare bedroom for a couple weeks before an important vote.
Posted on 10/5/18 at 8:41 am to timdonaghyswhistle
quote:
Alaska is a very weird state too. I honestly have no clue what her constituents even feel about this vote.
The natives want to keep Obamacare humming along. The state went solidly to Trump, but the need to keep DC dollars flowing into Alaska is priority one.
I’d let Lisa know that if she’s a “no,” she can kiss her chairman seat on the Energy Committee goodbye.
Posted on 10/5/18 at 8:46 am to The Pirate King
quote:
It seems they are gearing up for a run in 2020
Great..hope so!
"Flakey/Coons 2020"
Posted on 10/5/18 at 8:46 am to moneyg
quote:if this was about the wall or marginal tax rates or any other regular issue, you would be correct
There is so much time between now and when she's up for re-election, I just don't think it will matter much.
but this is about SCOTUS, and she will go down over this
belee dat
Posted on 10/5/18 at 8:49 am to frankenfish
quote:spot on, same thing I've been saying, except change "could" with "will" or "is" a "win/win"
It's a risky play but it could be win/win.
Posted on 10/5/18 at 8:59 am to Dale51
Flake and Koons are getting a lot of free pub with this crap.
Posted on 10/5/18 at 9:08 am to Bard
quote:If it's Jones, trying to find a way to keep that seat, I will get to watch people's heads explode.
My prayer to the 7lb 8oz Baby Jesus is that the vote passes because of 1 Democrat crossing the aisle to vote for Kavanaugh
Posted on 10/5/18 at 9:10 am to Northwestern tiger
My bet is when the rubber hits the road he will have the votes.
Heitkamp being a no is only because she is toast either way.
Collins and Murkowski would be complete fools to vote no. There just isn't enough there to justify a no vote.
Collins is in Class II which means she is up for re-election in 2020 when Trump will be running for re-election. Maine is a funny state, but Collins will likely need Trump to campaign with her or face a primary challenge.
If the Senate goes the way its looking in 2018 Collins frankly becomes expendable in 2020 and can be challenged in the primary.
Murkowski just got re-elected so she is a bit more of a wild card because at the end of the day she won't be held accountable for this particular vote. It won't look good for her body of work, but there is a lot of time for her to recover.
Flake is a yes he really can't walk back from getting his requested additional investigation, saying he didn't hear "any additional corroboration" and then vote no.
With Collins and Flake that makes it 50, Manchin will follow so that is 51. Then I think Murkowski becomes a yes making 52. After that, one more at risk D (would have said McCaskill a few weeks ago but she's toast; could be Stabenow depending on her internals) will jump on board making it 53. The only question I have is if some of the other Ds running will swing moving the total past 53. It could happen, but I don't think so.
If I were advising the President I would get a large rally in Michigan tonight...
Heitkamp being a no is only because she is toast either way.
Collins and Murkowski would be complete fools to vote no. There just isn't enough there to justify a no vote.
Collins is in Class II which means she is up for re-election in 2020 when Trump will be running for re-election. Maine is a funny state, but Collins will likely need Trump to campaign with her or face a primary challenge.
If the Senate goes the way its looking in 2018 Collins frankly becomes expendable in 2020 and can be challenged in the primary.
Murkowski just got re-elected so she is a bit more of a wild card because at the end of the day she won't be held accountable for this particular vote. It won't look good for her body of work, but there is a lot of time for her to recover.
Flake is a yes he really can't walk back from getting his requested additional investigation, saying he didn't hear "any additional corroboration" and then vote no.
With Collins and Flake that makes it 50, Manchin will follow so that is 51. Then I think Murkowski becomes a yes making 52. After that, one more at risk D (would have said McCaskill a few weeks ago but she's toast; could be Stabenow depending on her internals) will jump on board making it 53. The only question I have is if some of the other Ds running will swing moving the total past 53. It could happen, but I don't think so.
If I were advising the President I would get a large rally in Michigan tonight...
Posted on 10/5/18 at 9:15 am to Northwestern tiger
quote:
Key undecided senators -- including West Virginia Democrat Joe Manchin -- maintained they were undecided on Friday morning and won't make their decision known until they're on the Senate floor.
I’m sure it has nothing to do with paid agitators harassing them on the way to the senate.
This post was edited on 10/5/18 at 9:15 am
Posted on 10/5/18 at 9:16 am to Northwestern tiger
Given the closeness, there’s no scenario where Manchin could vote no and keep his seat lol
Posted on 10/5/18 at 9:17 am to the808bass
quote:
I’d let Lisa know that if she’s a “no,” she can kiss her chairman seat on the Energy Committee goodbye.
This right here. Mitch needs to start playing hardball with her and Collins, especially since it looks like he may pick up a few more seats from red-state Dems.
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