re: China is dumping US treasuries because they know Trump is watching the 10-year yield

So they're not coming due on a schedule?

You asked when they would refi. I gave you the answer

China has been selling for years, they don’t actually have that much US debt anymore.

Since we are negotiating with Japan on trade right now, we should have our biggest creditor purchase whatever China dumps

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China is going to cave, they can't afford not to.

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THIS is a prayer. You think they will, but you have no idea if they will. Meanwhile, no one saw them dumping treasuries, and this is a main ingredient to the very recession / stagflation I am talking about. And when it drags on for years and in the midterms and the next election cycle, people are so pissed at republicans that we wind up with democrat everything, who loses then?

Trump is done with politics after this term, his ego assuaged. He will have done it all that one man can do in a lifetime. He will sit on his billions and be insulated from the fallout of this insanity. Meanwhile, the rest of us will be reaping consequences for decades, just like after Smoot Hawley and five decades of a congress composed of Democrats.

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So the admin can’t have multiple goals?

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They're all in conflict with each other, so they can, but they won't work in concert together effectively.

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Are you suggesting that they’re conflicting goals?

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They 100% are.

If the goal is to bring manufacturing back, then we will still have "unfair trade" and imports from abroad will decrease, so we won't get the tariff tax revenue.

If the goal is "fair trade/zero tariffs", we will get no tariff revenue and manufacturing is more likely to go abroad.

If the goal is replacing the income tax, we won't have fair trade and we will still be relying on manufacturing abroad to supply the goods that we will tax, so it's not coming home.

Those are the 3 main theories.

If the goal is the "refi" plan, then the point is to not reach any deal and push recession until the treasuries can be refinanced.

There's one more lesser theory that's been floated and it's escaping me.

You think a Billionaire like Trump is just going to sit on his Billions and fade into the sunset? If he was going to do that he would never had run for president three times. It's not about the money. Trump has taken on the world and is trying to change what would have been and people like yourself would have let it happen.

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Some people claim this dump by China actually cost them billions

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Probably. Trade wars are inefficient all around. That's why historically the consequences are so dire.

Trade wars become psychological, like the muh fight nonsense from MAGA. It's about inflicting pain to try to claim some position of leverage more than rational longterm strategy.

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Trump started this, what did he expect China to do? Say sorry? This shite is going to get ugly, and we are going to be the ones caught in the middle of all it.

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China is not the only third world hellhole where things can be made.

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Why can’t there be several areas of focus?

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Because then morons like him would have nothing to complain about.

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Those are the 3 main theories.

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Oh I thought you were talking about known goals of the admin.

I didn’t realize you were instructing a class on economic theory.