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Started By
Message
re: California threatening a retaliatory gerrymandering
Posted on 8/10/25 at 4:21 pm to RockyMtnTigerWDE
Posted on 8/10/25 at 4:21 pm to RockyMtnTigerWDE
Any census change can't happen very fast, too much legal BS to process, from most accounts. However, POTUS Donald Trump can assign ICE Agents to polling stations across Calif & the country during the mid term elections for a more immediate effect.
0
Posted on 8/10/25 at 4:24 pm to Lgrnwd
quote:
So how many more Democrat seats can they reasonably squeeze out of their state?
They're likely going to need to lose more when the 2030 census rolls around. The brunt of the out-migration is the urban areas (read: blue areas) with LA and San Fran (read: bluest of the blue) leading the category.
Good luck to them in trying to create more liberal districts when their liberal population centers are the ones shedding the most population.
Posted on 8/10/25 at 4:29 pm to Jimbeaux
quote:
So, Kamala got 60% of the vote in 2024, and Trump got 40%.
Yet the Dems have 45 seats (87%) to Republicans 7 seats (13%)?
And Dems want to gerrymander even more?
If the seats matched the votes in aggregate, just in CA, then this Congress would be exactly the same as in 1994. Remember how huge that was for the GOP?
Posted on 8/10/25 at 4:32 pm to Lgrnwd
quote:
retaliatory gerrymandering
I hope this phrase is used by the defense during the subsequent lawsuits.
Posted on 8/10/25 at 4:32 pm to Lgrnwd
How does one gerrymander something already gerrymandered?
Posted on 8/10/25 at 4:55 pm to Lgrnwd
I thought the California legislature outsourced their power to create Congressional districts to an independent commission?
Posted on 8/10/25 at 5:27 pm to JimEverett
quote:You really think they’re independent?
I thought the California legislature outsourced their power to create Congressional districts to an independent commission?
Posted on 8/10/25 at 5:35 pm to Lgrnwd
Even if non citizens are still allowed in the count, 2030 census will see on the low end a 12-15 shift for electoral college purposes. It will be a little less for congressional seats, but still 10+ seat shift to red states.
Posted on 8/10/25 at 5:39 pm to RockyMtnTigerWDE
Is the next census scheduled for this year? Or will trump have to force one ?
Posted on 8/10/25 at 5:52 pm to BigPerm30
After the census……they’ll be lucky to save 100 of what they already have. They’ll lose at least 50 seats.
Posted on 8/10/25 at 5:55 pm to Lgrnwd
Gerrymandering gives us unimpeachable representatives on both sides. Letting political parties draw these districts is beyond absurd. Let a computer do it.
Posted on 8/10/25 at 6:09 pm to RockyMtnTigerWDE
quote:
One thing to look for is if Trump can get a new census where illegals are not counted. This will alter the make up of Dem congressional seats a bit as well.
The problem is that the census is self reporting. How many illegals will self report as being an illegal. Dems will tell them to mark themselves as citizens. It will take a verification process that can attach perjury charges to people that lie on their census forms
Posted on 8/10/25 at 6:17 pm to CubsFanBudMan
quote:
The problem is that the census is self reporting. How many illegals will self report as being an illegal. Dems will tell them to mark themselves as citizens. It will take a verification process that can attach perjury charges to people that lie on their census forms
Isn't there documentation held somewhere on all citizens? So when 370 million "citizens" are counted by the census, can't it be compared to the 350 million recorded citizens?
Posted on 8/10/25 at 6:19 pm to Trevaylin
quote:
This plays easily into the 4-d chess approach by trump to get the rules established through the Supreme Court.
It's already gone that far.
Multiple times.
A decade of Supreme Court rulings have given states increasingly unfettered power in redistricting
quote:
In June 2019, the Supreme Court swept aside the idea that federal courts could rein in state lawmakers' power to draw legislative maps designed primarily to entrench their own party's power.
The ruling, a 5-4 split along ideological lines with conservative justices in the majority, made it clear that partisan gerrymandering was here to stay, absent states taking matters into their own hands or the unlikely scenario of Congress' stepping in to impose some sort of national ban.
Writing for the majority, Chief Justice John Roberts said simply that federal courts had no authority to intervene on the issue, even if it means election outcomes can "seem unjust."
Posted on 8/10/25 at 6:20 pm to udtiger
quote:
Plus, if they go too far, that raises the question as to whether CA would still be a republican form of government that is guaranteed under Article IV, Section 4 of the US Constitution
Update: it would not
Posted on 8/10/25 at 6:20 pm to Aubie Spr96
quote:
Gerrymandering gives us unimpeachable representatives on both sides. Letting political parties draw these districts is beyond absurd. Let a computer do it.
I agree with this.
Posted on 8/10/25 at 6:23 pm to Warrior Court
quote:
I agree with this.
As long as my side writes the algorithm, I agree with it too.
Posted on 8/10/25 at 6:38 pm to Jimmyboy
quote:
Is the next census scheduled for this year? Or will trump have to force one ?
2030
Posted on 8/10/25 at 6:40 pm to Jimmyboy
quote:
will trump have to force one ?
I believe that is his plan
Posted on 8/10/25 at 6:41 pm to David_DJS
Let a neutral party write the algorithm.
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