re: Buckle up boys: Atlanta Fed predicts 4.8% 2Q GDP! MAGA on Fire!!

They always start off high but this does seem later in the cycle than the others were.

Hell that would get trump’s average up around 3% even including the first partial crappy one back at the start of his term

Here is the Atlanta Fed chart and report

Federal reserve bank Atlanta GDP now

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When do the actual numbers come out?

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July 27 is the advanced estimate. But the advanced estimate has an average error around 0.5 percentage points, so it’ll be late August before we get a good measure.

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Atl is generally the more conservative estimate, correct?

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Not really, the nowcast tends to over-forecast actual movements in either direction. When gdp is rising, atl nowcast tends to overpredict growth and when gdp is falling they tend to overpredict the drop. But even by there standard, 4.8 is real solid. And the fact that it is raising is a damn strong sign that gdp is likely on the rise as well. Just probably not all the way to 4.8

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I've been told for years this would never be the case, and we would never see 4% growth ever again.

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It isn’t unusual to see quarterly growth of over 4%. That’s happened under every President.

Obama policies lay groundwork for GDP growth
-CNN

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When do the actual numbers come out?

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Typically, after the end of the second quarter, I presume.

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Atlanta Fed predicts

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Paging 90proofbitchboy. Would love to get your thoughts on trumps booming economy

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melt harder first

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melt harder first

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MELT

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Why hasn’t 90doucheprofessional started a thread????????!??!?

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NY Fed's Nowcast only has 3.26% growth.



Of course, I don't care about Bayesian updating.