re: Assessment and Risk of US Collapse

It would be debased to the point of no longer having value, making it necessary to create a more stable currency backed by gold or silver much like what happened in Germany post WW1 or the US following the Revolution

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Downvoted for AI

Upvoted because you recognized we are screwed

Blame the leaders, not the AI

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Thats fair, but try getting anyone from either side to still have a decent debate on the big media outlets

Miss those days where you could be on different sides and still have a professional argument.

Either way, I still think the data provided is relevant

When you see the other 145+ economies below us start to crap out then get nervous

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We can’t possibly pay off 40 trillion dollars in debt because it grows each year by 1 trillion in interest so we never touch the principle. The ONLY way we ever could would be to print 40 trillion new dollars therefore debasing it to the point of being worthless

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That’s definitely true if you had to pay it off in one year. I am optimistic that we will grow out of the debt as a percentage of our GDP. I’m not certain of it, but I do believe in the upside of AI, if not the aggressive timetables that are bandied about.

There are two ways this is likely to go. One is a socialist takeover of our government. They could simply declare much of the debt null and simply not repay it. The cost of this would mostly be borne by affluent and wealthy bond holders - their political enemies.

A second is the government, in the face of persistent and increasing inflation, could hold interest rates below the rate of inflation for a number of years. This would gradually transfer wealth from the bond holders to the federal government. The government can maintain regulations that require insurance companies, banks, and other institutions to carry government debt, thus passing the cost of the debt to their customers (us).

The trick to all of this is that the spending problem persists. If we compare this to historical cases in which a great power had tremendous debt we see that, in each case in which the power recovered, the spending problem - war - went away.

The US is spending over a trillion dollars per year on defense. There are scenarios in which that substantially goes away. Unfortunately for me, those scenarios all involve the adoption of a one-world government obviating the need for defense spending.

If the US can grow its economy, while employing interest rates lower than inflation (two things that often go hand in hand) we could grow out of the problem. But this only works if fiscal discipline is eventually imposed.

One thing we have going for us is that our only potential competitor - China - is a bigger mess than we are.

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There must also be a movement to elect strong legislators.

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Agree. Maybe every few years we all write down a strong candidate’s name and then add up the names to find out which legislator the majority of the people want.

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I've for a while now raged against ruling by executive orders,, as dear leader is so fond of

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Franklin Roosevelt (D) issued over 3700 executive orders. But nice try trying to make it seem Trump is the only one albeit being a straight up lie

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This is the actual threat: 5. Unsustainable fiscal commitments and debt

These are the factors that make solving that problem near impossible: 1. Collapse of institutional legitimacy and political norms 2. Extreme polarization turning political opponents into existential enemies 3. Economic inequality combined with declining perceived mobility 4. Concentration of political/economic power and regulatory capture 6. Information ecosystems that reward outrage and misinformation 7. Institutional paralysis caused by constitutional structures poorly adapted to modern political parties

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Bingo. Without sound money, the only thing standing between you and the invading hordes will be in your gun cabinet.

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Will be?

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Yeah, well…I was speaking in relative terms.