A Trump-Harris 2nd term is not too far fetched if Biden-Trump split the electoral college

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First off, you need a 269-269 electoral college tie:

Plenty has been discussed about how either Joe Biden or Donald Trump can secure a majority in the electoral college this year. One item that has not been discussed as much is what happens if the electoral college’s 538 votes come down to a 269-269 tie.

A very realistic tie scenario could come down to Biden taking back Michigan and Wisconsin from Trump, but failing to do so in Wisconsin or elsewhere. If Biden loses the Maine 2nd like Clinton, but gains the Nebraska 2nd; this would lead to a tie.

Another possible tie would involve Biden taking back Michigan and Wisconsin, but failing to take back Pennsylvania. Meanwhile, he takes Arizona – a state with continued DEM trends. This would lead to a tie as well.

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Second: Trump wins the Contingent Election in the House 26-23-1, which is very likely

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Lastly: In a Contingent Election, the VP is chosen by the Senate. If the Dems manage to flip the Senate and get to 51, they will likely vote Harris in as VP.

Senate Procedures

The procedures for the US Senate are much less convoluted than the House. We have 100 Senators, and 51 votes gets you the Vice Presidency. In a tie, the current Vice President would presumably be the tie-breaker. So yes, this does lead to a scenario where a 50-50 tie from the elections leads to outgoing Vice President Mike Pence casting a ballot for himself to remain on the job. Of course, if the House has failed to pick a President, this would make him the acting President as a result.

Right now, the Senate stands at 53 Republicans, 47 Democrats. To get Harris as VP (or President), Democrats must net four seats. This will be a tough haul itself; as Alabama Democrat Doug Jones is going to struggle to win re-election. Democrats have good chances to take flip Colorado, Arizona, Maine, and North Carolina. If they can hold Alabama, or replace it with Montana, Georgia, Iowa, or Alaska; they can get to 51 – which would allow Harris to win.

Conclusion

So…. how likely is any of this? The map logic is sound – and all it takes is a very states going a specific way. 5%? I’m not a forecaster. But the chance is there. The question then becomes, does anyone get to 26 delegations in the house? Who wins the VP vote in the Senate? It is also entirely possibly a Trump win in the House could be paired with a Harris VP win. How about a Trump-Harris administration?

Can’t rule it out.

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