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re: 7% Mortgage Rates 30-Year
Posted on 9/23/26 at 11:59 am to Tomatocantender
Posted on 9/23/26 at 11:59 am to Tomatocantender
quote:
Ouch! That number coupled with median home prices, no bueno.
DSA is eating this shite up. Trump is feeding it. Your grandkids will be communist muslims.
Posted on 9/23/26 at 12:02 pm to The Pirate King
quote:
Just what will stimulate the market and fix things...killing everyone's equity and net worth so no one can afford to put 20% down on a house.
I think that that would have to be baked in already for them to fall to the numbers he said. But that's the whole point is the market is inflated and those secondary effects will further ensure return to equilibrium.
For the sake of argument, let's just assume that housing prices are inflated. Why pretty much all the data indicates this is the truth, just so you know. Why do we bend over backwards to artificially prop up this specific asset class? If the market is inflated and people will go upside down, then all it says is that people made bad choices within a market scenario.
One of the reason that housing has gotten so insanely overpriced is because we keep using government to artificially increase the pricing of houses.
Posted on 9/23/26 at 12:05 pm to jp4lsu
quote:Yeah, talk about a crisis. If home prices drop 30% we will see banks just dissolve, and personal bankruptcies sky rocket.
Loan amounts greater than the home value. It would be a disaster.
What we wont see is property tax rates decrease with em
Posted on 9/23/26 at 12:06 pm to dr
quote:
my first home in '86 was 16% on 15 year owner financed
How much did that home cost though? 6 years in the Reagan years. I know he inherited a mess but 16% sounds absurb for a guy that’s publicly applauded by conservatives
Posted on 9/23/26 at 12:22 pm to Tomatocantender
My 1st mortgage was 6% in the mid-90s. Refinanced to 4% in early 2000s.
2nd house was 4% in early 2010s, refinanced to 2.375% in 2021.
People in the 80s were paying 15%+.
Yeah, it sucks, but they're not going to stay there.
2nd house was 4% in early 2010s, refinanced to 2.375% in 2021.
People in the 80s were paying 15%+.
Yeah, it sucks, but they're not going to stay there.
Posted on 9/23/26 at 12:23 pm to Tomatocantender
The cost of the home+ the insurance+ the taxes+ the maintenance cost=scaring people away from purchasing.
7% interest rates are just part of the challenge here.
It's just not as attractive of an option now as it was 5 years ago.
7% interest rates are just part of the challenge here.
It's just not as attractive of an option now as it was 5 years ago.
Posted on 9/23/26 at 12:24 pm to udtiger
quote:
refinanced to 2.375% in 2021
Same
Posted on 9/23/26 at 12:25 pm to SDVTiger
quote:
They were more like 50k and got to about 100k end of the decade
With an 18% rate that was a payment of 1500
Mortgage rates in 1989 were about 10%.
Posted on 9/23/26 at 12:26 pm to Lsupimp
quote:
The cost of the home+ the insurance+ the taxes+ the maintenance cost=scaring people away from purchasing.
Decreases in prices solves basically all of these
Again, basically EVERYthing indicates "prices are too high" and that if they come down all of the primary and secondary issues move in the right direction.
Posted on 9/23/26 at 12:29 pm to Tomatocantender
Doesn't take a one eyed Michael Bury to see that this is a cycle similar to 2006-2008 going on. High home prices, gouging due to lack of location/location/location inventory, and rising interest rates make these AAA tranches look like dog shite wrapped in cat shite. Oh and btw, who would have known that Synthetic CDO's are still literally a thing???? Those who don't learn from the past are doomed to repeat the same greedy mistakes and busted Bubbles.
This post was edited on 9/23/26 at 12:32 pm
Posted on 9/23/26 at 12:30 pm to Tomatocantender
My first mortgage was 13.3%. When interest rates dropped, I refinanced. That's how it works.
Posted on 9/23/26 at 12:35 pm to SlowFlowPro
I'm not arguing with you. I'm just not sure how you practically accomplish that-supply and demand being what it is.
Posted on 9/23/26 at 12:38 pm to RobertFootball
quote:
No, housing prices need to fall 35-55% at the least.
So then no one sells because they're underwater.
You're saying that someone who, for example, still owes $350,000 on a house they paid $500,000 for...now that house is only worth $250,000.
Who on earth would sell???
Posted on 9/23/26 at 12:40 pm to SDVTiger
quote:
If housing dropped this much the frenzy of buying would push it right back up
Seriously???
What would they be buying?
Are you gonna sell your house when you have to cough up and extra $50,000-$100,000 to pay off your mortgage?
Posted on 9/23/26 at 12:41 pm to BamaGradinTn
quote:
So then no one sells because they're underwater.
You're saying that someone who, for example, still owes $350,000 on a house they paid $500,000 for...now that house is only worth $250,000.
Who on earth would sell???
That brings to mind a genuine question I have. What is the proper balance?
Homes have generally represented the biggest asset for the average American. What's a reasonable expectation for home value appreciation?
Posted on 9/23/26 at 12:43 pm to Tomatocantender
So just a few bps higher than when I bought my first house 15 years ago. Cool.
Posted on 9/23/26 at 12:43 pm to Lsupimp
There is plenty of supply now.
And how you accomplish it is just don't engage in policies/regulations set on increasing housing prices (like lowering interest rates). The market will sort itself out within the regulatory/financial framework we have.
The cracks are starting to form, especially in the areas people flooded to during Covid (like Florida, Texas, etc). The markets in a bubble who were the hottest typically are the canaries in coal mines.
And how you accomplish it is just don't engage in policies/regulations set on increasing housing prices (like lowering interest rates). The market will sort itself out within the regulatory/financial framework we have.
The cracks are starting to form, especially in the areas people flooded to during Covid (like Florida, Texas, etc). The markets in a bubble who were the hottest typically are the canaries in coal mines.
Posted on 9/23/26 at 12:43 pm to SparkyWilson
quote:
So then no one sells because they're underwater.
You're saying that someone who, for example, still owes $350,000 on a house they paid $500,000 for...now that house is only worth $250,000.
Who on earth would sell???
That brings to mind a genuine question I have. What is the proper balance?
Homes have generally represented the biggest asset for the average American. What's a reasonable expectation for home value appreciation?
And that is an excellent question. I don't know the answer.
Posted on 9/23/26 at 12:44 pm to SparkyWilson
quote:
Homes have generally represented the biggest asset for the average American. What's a reasonable expectation for home value appreciation?
In a perfect world this entire paradigm changes
*ETA: of course there will be pain to some on that path. I understand that.
This post was edited on 9/23/26 at 12:47 pm
Posted on 9/23/26 at 12:47 pm to Tomatocantender
It ain’t too bad come tax season.
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