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re: 7% Mortgage Rates 30-Year

Posted on 9/24/26 at 7:09 am to
Posted by SlowFlowPro
With populists, expect populism
Member since Jan 2004
483395 posts
Posted on 9/24/26 at 7:09 am to
"in Louisiana" is an important qualifier

This is a dying state
Posted by Azkiger
Member since Nov 2016
28902 posts
Posted on 9/24/26 at 7:13 am to
quote:

"in Louisiana" is an important qualifier

This is a dying state


It just started dying?

My father flipped houses in this state every 3-6 years for the last 30 years. Never had to sell it for 15-25% less than its appraisal value. Same for the strip mall he built.
Posted by NC_Tigah
Ray Bans for Max Polarization
Member since Sep 2003
141314 posts
Posted on 9/24/26 at 7:27 am to
quote:

I don't know anyone who would argue it's better to discuss the period from 1975-1985 as a better comparison than the "new world order" era.

It depends on the context. I don't know anyone who sees home prices dropping 25% sans a second Great Recession. Historical interest rates are important information. Historical home size, quality, and real cost is important information.

OTOH, I've heard folks on this site claiming no US generation has lived in a more difficult time than GenY. In that context 1975-95 is a telling comparator.

I also understand you'd draw a comparison between our present situation, and the 10 most affordable yrs of home ownership in US history. Here's you post-cold war period. Have at it ...



Posted by Solo Cam
Member since Sep 2015
35236 posts
Posted on 9/24/26 at 7:50 am to
quote:

The problem is the median home prices. They need to fall at least 15-25%
Where does that cut come from?

We have massive price increases on material and shipping and a labor shortage.

where do you think home builders are going to find another 1/4 of prices to cut?

It's insane that you guys are now pro war, high interest rates and high gas.

If Kamala buried the epstein files, went to war with iran, diesel hit record highs and interest rates were going up you guys would be saying we need to take our country back.
Posted by SlowFlowPro
With populists, expect populism
Member since Jan 2004
483395 posts
Posted on 9/24/26 at 7:56 am to
quote:

Where does that cut come from?

We have massive price increases on material and shipping and a labor shortage.


Ultimately if the overall market decreases, eventually those material prices will follow suit. The producers of that material are subject to the same market forces as anything else. In a deflationary period, if they don't reduce prices, they wont sell any products.

These are all the positive secondary effects of focusing on the housing prices, similar to insurance. If we focus on inflating everything, then the inflation maintains across the secondary and tertiary effects.

Lower prices ultimately solve all of them.

quote:

It's insane that you guys are now pro war, high interest rates and high gas.

None of those apply to me

I'm anti-war

I'm neutral on interest rates and gas prices. Both are based in market principles.

quote:

If Kamala

Sir, this is an In-and-Out
Posted by SDVTiger
Cabo San Lucas
Member since Nov 2011
100742 posts
Posted on 9/24/26 at 8:02 am to
In the last 100yrs how many times has home prices decreased?
Posted by Solo Cam
Member since Sep 2015
35236 posts
Posted on 9/24/26 at 8:17 am to
quote:

Ultimately if the overall market decreases, eventually those material prices will follow suit. The producers of that material are subject to the same market forces as anything else. In a deflationary period, if they don't reduce prices, they wont sell any products.

You're dodging the question because you know the answer.

if the price of goods is higher due to tariffs and the cost to ship is literally higher than it's ever been- how does a company reduce the price?

The only way is massive layoffs. To reset the entire economy you're talking about a recession and possibly a depression.

quote:

These are all the positive secondary effects of focusing on the housing prices, similar to insurance. If we focus on inflating everything, then the inflation maintains across the secondary and tertiary effects
So what are your thoughts on the big beautiful bill increasing spending?

quote:

Lower prices ultimately solve all of them.
Oh yeah eventually it will, once everyone is struggling to make ends meet and find a job and unemployment is at a record high then no one will spend any money, most mom and pops will close snd bigger businesses will weather the storm and then prices will come down.

There's no issues in your logic, you're just avoiding the fact that this is going to be awful for the american people.

quote:

None of those apply to me

I'm anti-war

I'm neutral on interest rates and gas prices. Both are based in market principles.
You think the fuel right now is a market issue?

quote:

Sir, this is an In-and-Out
Deflection is a strong sign of a logical argument. maybe if you close your eyes and put your fingers in your ears it'll all go away lol.
Posted by NC_Tigah
Ray Bans for Max Polarization
Member since Sep 2003
141314 posts
Posted on 9/24/26 at 8:18 am to
quote:

In the last 100yrs how many times has home prices decreased?
25% as SFP suggests? The answer would be twice….once during the Great Depression and then after the Great Recession
Posted by SDVTiger
Cabo San Lucas
Member since Nov 2011
100742 posts
Posted on 9/24/26 at 9:06 am to
quote:

25% as SFP suggests?


quote:

U.S. national home values on a nominal (non-inflation-adjusted) annual basis have experienced major nationwide declines during only two distinct eras over the last 100 years: the early 1990s and the 2008 financial crisis


SFP is hoping for major chaos
Posted by NC_Tigah
Ray Bans for Max Polarization
Member since Sep 2003
141314 posts
Posted on 9/24/26 at 10:17 am to
quote:

SFP is hoping for major chaos
One can hope. My preference is to deal in probabilities.
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