re: Zeta - The cleanup begins

It's ground clutter. The radar beam gets bent toward the ground when there's a thermal inversion (warm air above cold air). For this reason you tend to see it at night. Basically the radar beam is picking up bugs or trees or other shite near the ground instead of going up into the air.

Looking at the St. Louis radar using some of the dual-pol products I can tell it's hitting a bunch of non-uniform things which basically means it ain't rain or snow. So it's ground clutter for sure.



This is the upper air balloon from Springfield, MO tonight. Thermal inversion clearly in place with a cold front pushing through.

Wtf

I'd say not to worry too much yet. Euro and it's ensembles tend to be west biased and with the big upper low approaching by the time it's be coming, it's hard to see how the system would be fully tropical. Certainly would struggle against shear and what are now coolish water in the northern Gulf.

So just be aware.

SELA FORCE FIELD ACTIVATE!!

Okay what the frick man.

Well Florida already cancelled the game so....

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Oct 24 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Epsilon, located over the west-central Atlantic Ocean.

Satellite, radar and surface data indicate that a broad area of low
pressure located just southwest of Grand Cayman Island is gradually
becoming better organized, with a better defined wind circulation,
increasing thunderstorm activity and falling surface pressures since
yesterday. Environmental conditions are conducive for further
development, and a tropical depression is expected to form within
the next day or so while the low drifts toward the north and
northwest. The system could move near western Cuba on Monday and
move slowly across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by Tuesday.
Interests in western Cuba, the Florida Keys, and the Yucatan
Peninsula should monitor the progress of this disturbance. A NOAA
Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate
the disturbance this afternoon. Regardless of development, locally
heavy rainfall will be possible over portions of the Cayman Islands,
Jamaica and Cuba through early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

That black line is on Houma again.

When it is on us this far out ,we will be fine. It’s going to go somewhere else.

This thing will 100% not go west of Marsh Island.