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re: Without human intervention how big would these fires get?
Posted on 11/12/18 at 11:47 am to jcaz
Posted on 11/12/18 at 11:47 am to jcaz
quote:
. I read that most areas naturally see fire every 10-15 years.
Quite far from reality. Some areas (e.g., SE long leaf pine) historically burned every 3-5 years, many other forested landscapes had return intervals measured in hundreds of years. The combination of forest management, fire suppression and, yes, climate change is greatly altering the frequency and intensity of fire. Add to that an expanding residential/wildland interface and you have the table set for catastrophic wildfires.
1
Posted on 11/12/18 at 11:57 am to al_cajun
One reason the fires get as big as they do is human intervention.
Posted on 11/12/18 at 11:58 am to jbgleason
quote:
The wacky Governor of CA got on the TV this morning and blamed the entire fire on Global Warming and Pres Trump's policies.
To be perfectly fair, Trump blamed it all on the forestry service for not having any fire suppression methods in place...and as someone else pointed out, most of these fires are occurring on federal land and Trump is the one that controls, and slashed, funding to the federal forestry service.
Posted on 11/12/18 at 12:08 pm to fr33manator
quote:
Should have been doing controlled burns and these wouldn’t likely be as bad
Blame the federal government for that. Instead of treating these fires as disasters and using disaster funding to fight them, they were making the Forest Service use their funds to fight them.
I was listening to a podcast recently where the guy said he's talked to forest service employees who just had to stop working on projects because the funds were being pulled to fight fires.
If they were able to set prescribed fires to those areas, then maybe we wouldn't see so many wildfires. Look at the southeast--we don't have near the wildfires the west has. Climate and the location of populations cores are factors in that (like someone already said, hard to burn near all of these cities), but we also have a lot more prescribed burns.
Thankfully, that changed last year when they quit making the FS use their funds to fight fires.
Posted on 11/12/18 at 12:45 pm to al_cajun
Posted on 11/12/18 at 1:40 pm to al_cajun
After the initial one? Probably isolated. The undergrowth would be kept in check and more natural vegetation would grow.
ETA
Nature did a great job at regulation for billions of years. It is pretty funny humans think they can do a better job at containment.
ETA
Nature did a great job at regulation for billions of years. It is pretty funny humans think they can do a better job at containment.
This post was edited on 11/12/18 at 1:42 pm
Posted on 11/12/18 at 1:42 pm to Buryl
Nice input.
I don't know the terminology but in NM and CO this summer they let the fires burn, with containment. Meaning they cut (?) fire lines near communities but otherwise let the fires burn naturally until weather or lack of fuel caused them to die out.
Is this the same thing as suppression?
And now that weather is favorable they are doing prescribed burns all over to reduce the risk for next summer.
LINK
Anyone know if CA does prescribed burns in the "off-season"? Do they even have an off-season?.
I don't know the terminology but in NM and CO this summer they let the fires burn, with containment. Meaning they cut (?) fire lines near communities but otherwise let the fires burn naturally until weather or lack of fuel caused them to die out.
Is this the same thing as suppression?
And now that weather is favorable they are doing prescribed burns all over to reduce the risk for next summer.
LINK
Anyone know if CA does prescribed burns in the "off-season"? Do they even have an off-season?.
Posted on 11/12/18 at 1:43 pm to CoachChappy
quote:
It would burn most of the state the way God intended.
there is no God
Posted on 11/12/18 at 1:47 pm to TigerStripes06
quote:
Trump is the one that controls, and slashed, funding to the federal forestry service
Pretty sure you are 100% wrong on this one. I'll see if I can find a link.
Eta:
LINK
quote:
Trump’s 62-page budget document does not provide detailed spending changes, but its narrative highlights certain priorities. Both departments commit to fully funding wildland firefighting through the Forest Service and Bureau of Land Management at 100 percent of their respective 10-year averages. That works out to $2.4 billion for the Forest Service, while BLM’s figure was not specified.
You are right that funding to the forest service was cut, but funding for wildfire management is still funded at the 10 year average.
I suppose that could be interpreted differently by different people, depending on their agenda.
This post was edited on 11/12/18 at 1:54 pm
Posted on 11/12/18 at 1:59 pm to Buryl
Buryl:
Thanks for posting. It's nice to hear from someone who actually knows what they are talking about.
I lived in CA for 7 years, from '98 to 2005. I remember regulations and recommendations about construction methods, brush clearing and landscaping best practices to mitigate the wildfire threat. Maybe things have changed in the past 12 or 13 years, but I seriously doubt local and state governments have decided to willfully ignore a persistent threat.
As you know as a firefighter, prescribed burns are a necessary tool, but aren't foolproof. The weather forecast - temperature, winds and humidity - are a primary component of when a burn takes place, as well as air quality considerations. I remember reading about a prescribed burn at Yosemite, near El Portal, that got out of hand and burned something like 10,000 acres. Whoops! But that doesn't mean prescribed burns should be eliminated.
Wasn't the giant Yellowstone fire in the late '80s partially the result of a "hands off" fire policy at that time? Those fires burned close to one million acres over the summer and only got extinguished because of an early snowfall.
I haven't seen it in this thread yet, but there are actually people who are suggesting the state is setting the fires to prop up their budget. It's amazing to me the stupid shite people are willing to believe.
Thanks for posting. It's nice to hear from someone who actually knows what they are talking about.
I lived in CA for 7 years, from '98 to 2005. I remember regulations and recommendations about construction methods, brush clearing and landscaping best practices to mitigate the wildfire threat. Maybe things have changed in the past 12 or 13 years, but I seriously doubt local and state governments have decided to willfully ignore a persistent threat.
As you know as a firefighter, prescribed burns are a necessary tool, but aren't foolproof. The weather forecast - temperature, winds and humidity - are a primary component of when a burn takes place, as well as air quality considerations. I remember reading about a prescribed burn at Yosemite, near El Portal, that got out of hand and burned something like 10,000 acres. Whoops! But that doesn't mean prescribed burns should be eliminated.
Wasn't the giant Yellowstone fire in the late '80s partially the result of a "hands off" fire policy at that time? Those fires burned close to one million acres over the summer and only got extinguished because of an early snowfall.
I haven't seen it in this thread yet, but there are actually people who are suggesting the state is setting the fires to prop up their budget. It's amazing to me the stupid shite people are willing to believe.
Posted on 11/12/18 at 2:20 pm to al_cajun
God calls upon us to help those that are yet sinners
When lot was leaving sodom and Gomorrah as it was burning God told him to turn around and help put out the fire
When lot was leaving sodom and Gomorrah as it was burning God told him to turn around and help put out the fire
Posted on 11/12/18 at 2:33 pm to IllegalPete
quote:
I don't know the terminology but in NM and CO this summer they let the fires burn, with containment. Meaning they cut (?) fire lines near communities but otherwise let the fires burn naturally until weather or lack of fuel caused them to die out.
Is this the same thing as suppression?
And now that weather is favorable they are doing prescribed burns all over to reduce the risk for next summer.
Generally we would refer to those fires as "under observation", and what you described is pretty much exactly what happens. "Observation" could mean anything form flying over it every few days to actually bringing people in to watch it and maybe construct some fire line or conduct back burns to keep fire out of an area, or move it in another area.
You'll almost never see them do this with a fire that's near any significant population area. Too risky. It's much more common in wilderness areas, or towards the end of the season.
The last fire I fought before I "retired" was a controlled burn that had been out for a week. The weather warmed up, wind kicked in, and most likely blew a few embers from a stump across the fire line. Fire burned 6,000 acres in heavy timber until it we brought it under control. We got snowed on the last day of the fire, I froze my arse off.
Posted on 11/12/18 at 2:54 pm to al_cajun
without humans they would probably never start in the first place. The fires would be natural fires and they would aid to reduce the amount of underbrush etc.
This post was edited on 11/12/18 at 2:55 pm
Posted on 11/12/18 at 4:06 pm to al_cajun
very bigly
Posted on 11/12/18 at 6:11 pm to CoachChappy
quote:
It would burn most of the state the way God intended.
So you're saying an electoral shift, and redistricting would be involved then?
Posted on 11/12/18 at 6:14 pm to Mid Iowa Tiger
Park service on that one.
Back when, stopped fires before they could clear fuel and later fires became the monsters. Now it's a game of catch up we lost.
Back when, stopped fires before they could clear fuel and later fires became the monsters. Now it's a game of catch up we lost.
Posted on 11/12/18 at 10:38 pm to islandtiger
I mean it seemed like the biggest catalyst in these fires was the wind.
They can’t blame drought. It’s Cali. It never rains.
They can’t blame drought. It’s Cali. It never rains.
Posted on 11/12/18 at 10:58 pm to jcaz
quote:
They can’t blame drought. It’s Cali. It never rains.
Fire season used to be 6-8 months now essentially year-round. CA is a classic Mediterranean climate with rains in CA typically starting in Sept-Oct...next to nothing this far this year.
Posted on 11/12/18 at 11:05 pm to al_cajun
The three near me were all man made.
So nothing would have even happened without human intervention.
Faulty wiring.
A motorcycle accident. One guy.
A truck dragging a metal part.
So nothing would have even happened without human intervention.
Faulty wiring.
A motorcycle accident. One guy.
A truck dragging a metal part.
Posted on 11/12/18 at 11:07 pm to al_cajun
Aren't most of these fires started by humans?
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