re: Winter thread: 3.5" officially in BR on the 8th day of meteorological winter!!

HOT! REAL HOT! DAMN HOT! ITS HOTTER THAN THE SUN. FOOL ARE YOU LISTENING I SAID ITS HOT. IT SO HOT IN MY SHORTS I COULD COOK THINGS IN THEM. A LITTLE CROTCH POT COOKING. (Where is that line from?)

Didn't someone post a couple of weeks ago about some major snow event around Thanksgiving weekend?

Sort of missed on that one.

It's a tough recipe to get right down here. It's tough to have an entire column sub freezing. Cold air being more dense, it might be cold enough on the ground but not often is it cold enough just above the surface. Then we need to have enough moisture available, without it warming shite back up.

Basically we need a low tracking across the gulf nearish to the coast. Tap a cold flow off the planes to keep it cold enough and then get a little help cooling from evaporation. So many moving parts and a really fine line between cold rain/ice storm/snow, you almost don't know until there's snow falling.



That's the 1993 "Storm of the Century". A low tracking from west to east across the gulf "bombing" out and being able to tap a big pull of cold air off the midsection of the country. The clouds sitting south of Louisiana are indicative of very cold air blowing over the gulf. You'll sometimes see this off New England post noreaster.

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That was the first time I ever remember seeing snow, and in March no less.
It stuck on roofs and cars here but didn't Birmingham have around 18"

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One of the first big wins for computer modeling. Called for gulf coast storm and an epic blizzard in the mid-Atlantic/NE days out. Birmingham did catch a foot and a half. Hell Mobile got a solid 6" ( ). Apalachicola got an 11 foot storm surge and the trailing deracho stretched down into central america and hit Florida and Cuba with hurricane force winds. I remember the thundersnow from that one.

Probably not going to be a good year for a snow maker here though. Like our chances better with an active subtropical jet typical of El Nino years to throw some energy our way.

That volcano is doing work already

Here's the Farmers Almanac. Just saving this here to see his they do:

1st-3rd.
Heavy rain from Gulf Coast north and east to the Carolinas, followed by clearing skies.
4th-7th.
Chilly rain.
8th-11th.
Continued cool conditions with some rain and showers. Mixed precipitation over the high terrain of the Virginias and North Carolina.
12th-15th.
Showery/thundery conditions, then fair.
16th-19th.
Unsettled weather.
20th-23rd.
Showery from Mississippi and all points east followed by clearing and very cold weather; frosts down to Florida.
24th-27th.
A big warm-up in time for Christmas with a few showers.
28th-31st.
Rain from Florida and points north to the Virginias, then fair and colder.

JANUARY 2018

1st-3rd.
Showers south to Gulf Coast, then turning fair, cold.
4th-7th.
Fair, cold. Frosts to Gulf Coast.
8th-11th.
Chilly rains.
12th-15th.
Clearing skies.
16th-19th.
Showers for lower Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia to Florida.
20th-23rd.
Snow for Tennessee, western mountains of North Carolina, then clearing; rain for Southeast, Gulf Coast.

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Farmer's Almanac forecasts always seem so random

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Agree.

But I've noticed it has a good track record on the macro level (ie the South will have a cool, rainy spring or whatever). They seem to be expecting a cold, rainy winter.

We're looking at December bliss starting on the 6th lasting as far out as we can see

I'm a weather nerd myself. Spent a lot of time in past winters on talkweather.com. I think most of the posters there moved to a new site called southernwx.com

I just want a cool few days around Christmas. I'm tired of having a warm Christmas.