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re: When are we getting our tariff stimulus check?
Posted on 11/15/25 at 5:22 pm to TechDawg2007
Posted on 11/15/25 at 5:22 pm to TechDawg2007
quote:
When are we getting our tariff stimulus check?
Right after the 5 grand from DOGE. I think it was floated out there at this time as a distraction
This post was edited on 11/15/25 at 5:23 pm
0
Posted on 11/15/25 at 5:24 pm to TechDawg2007
Waiting to see the stimulus titties to start popping up around town.
Posted on 11/15/25 at 5:37 pm to TechDawg2007
Same time as those 5k doge checks hit...
Posted on 11/15/25 at 5:37 pm to Obtuse1
quote:Maybe I'm misunderstanding him, but the M1 point only matters if the check represents new money entering the system. Tariff revenue is already collected from consumers through higher import prices, so when the government sends a “tariff dividend,” it’s using money that already exists in the system.
I had the same question and ask the "econ" guy* I work with, and after a whole bunch of words not covered in macro, his answer was it will increase M1 and thus potentially drive more inflation.
M1 might tick up on paper when the deposits hit checking accounts, but that doesn’t necessarily always mean the money supply actually expanded or that inflationary pressure increased (assuming the dividend is paid in full through tariffs). M1 rises any time cash moves into checking, but that doesn’t create new dollars.
If the source of the money is existing tariff revenue, and not new deficit spending, how will a change in M1 actually tell us anything meaningful about inflation?
This post was edited on 11/15/25 at 5:39 pm
Posted on 11/15/25 at 5:40 pm to Cosmo
Why though
Posted on 11/15/25 at 5:54 pm to TechDawg2007
I make 7 figures dawg. Ain't getting no stimmy
Posted on 11/15/25 at 6:10 pm to MoarKilometers
quote:
Oh, then that totally justifies another round of trump socialism checks. My bad
While I think the checks are a dumb idea for various reasons, you clearly don't know what socialism is.
Posted on 11/15/25 at 6:14 pm to TechDawg2007
quote:
When are we getting our tariff stimulus check?
I hope never. That’s what started this round of inflation in 2020.
Posted on 11/15/25 at 6:16 pm to northshorebamaman
quote:
But a tariff dividend comes from taxes on imports, so the money has already been taken out of consumers’ pockets through higher prices. If the government later hands some of that back, is that really “stimulus,” or is it just moving the same dollars from one place to another?
1000% correct.
It's like stealing $1 from you every day, while handing you $20 at the end of each month.
Posted on 11/15/25 at 6:18 pm to LSURussian
quote:
I hope never. That’s what started this round of inflation in 2020.
Not the same. This isn't new money.
Posted on 11/15/25 at 6:40 pm to TechDawg2007
I hope never, pissed at Trump, apply that money to the debt/.
Posted on 11/15/25 at 7:54 pm to RLDSC FAN
quote:
Around February 30th
April 1st only to pay some of it back in April 15th unless you are a ghetto queen getting over 10k in EITC and child tax credits.
Posted on 11/15/25 at 8:45 pm to northshorebamaman
quote:
If the source of the money is existing tariff revenue, and not new deficit spending, how will a change in M1 actually tell us anything meaningful about inflation?
If I see him and think of it I will ask him for the dumbed down version. In the attorney world he is a bow tie attorney and I am just a litigator. In military terms he is a 17C to my 11B mind.
The first thing I think of is that increase in M1 functions different than most increases in M1. It is similar to tax return season when people view the return as found money and they spend it differently than if it came in small increments over the year. It puts demand side pressure on sectors that are normally well into discretionary spending for most people. While it might not put much inflationary pressure on rice and beans it would likely put pressure on TVs, other electronics, and ribeye steaks.
I do see your point that this money came out of the pockets of consumers and US companies that import raw materials or finished goods so it is just going around in the blender. I have often said economics is 49% math and 51% sociology and I think they way people view and thus spend the money puts different inflationary pressure on the market.
Posted on 11/15/25 at 9:16 pm to Obtuse1
quote:I'm not sure either. It's economics.
If I see him and think of it I will ask him for the dumbed down version. In the attorney world he is a bow tie attorney and I am just a litigator. In military terms he is a 17C to my 11B mind.
quote:I can see some temporary pressure on the typical "tax return" purchases but there won't be any new dollars behind it, so, in [my] theory there's no built-in inflationary force beyond the typical return season assuming it's truly 100% funded through tariffs. That's also the rub because I don't have a huge amount of trust that it won't end up as a bait-and-switch. Every single dollar potentially added through deficit spending to make up the difference lives by the same rules as a stimmy check... and these are politicians.
The first thing I think of is that increase in M1 functions different than most increases in M1. It is similar to tax return season when people view the return as found money and they spend it differently than if it came in small increments over the year. It puts demand side pressure on sectors that are normally well into discretionary spending for most people. While it might not put much inflationary pressure on rice and beans it would likely put pressure on TVs, other electronics, and ribeye steaks.
eta- one thing that gives me pause is that even if 100% funded by existing dollars the distribution will still be wildly uneven between those paying the tariffs and those getting checks. Not sure how that works out but it seems to suggest there could be inflation in some sectors.
This post was edited on 11/15/25 at 9:30 pm
Posted on 11/15/25 at 9:19 pm to TechDawg2007
They can have that dam stimulus. Just give me $2 grand tax credit
Posted on 11/15/25 at 9:21 pm to TechDawg2007
quote:
When are we getting our tariff stimulus check?
When Congress authorizes it.
Posted on 11/15/25 at 9:41 pm to dallastigers
Just remember this acronym, T.A.C.O.
Posted on 11/15/25 at 10:05 pm to MoarKilometers
quote:
then that totally justifies another round of trump socialism checks
-Gov collects taxes.
-Tariffs generate revenue.
-Gov returns money to taxpayers since tariffs are providing revenue.
Yep. Totally socialism.
Posted on 11/15/25 at 10:06 pm to High C
quote:This is one of the things about Covid that I thought for sure we learned our lesson about, but apparently not.
You’ll blow through that $2k, but the inflation it creates will be around long after.
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