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Message
re: What would have prevented the amount of Flood Disaster loss of life?
Posted on 7/11/25 at 8:09 am to NoMercy
Posted on 7/11/25 at 8:09 am to NoMercy
Reality is that as is always the case, this was a combination of a lot of things to go wrong. Significant underforecasting of the rainfall levels and rate by the experts.
Bad design and location for many of the cabins.
An overused alert system that many of us have turned off/muted because of that. Poor leadership at all levels (national, state, local).
Numerous transplants not understanding the nature of the area.
Overdevelopment of land along with forcing structures into areas they never should have been.
No warning systems in place outside of phones.
Tons of other things. Lots of people to blame and every entity will blame someone else and not take ownership of their own failures.
Bad design and location for many of the cabins.
An overused alert system that many of us have turned off/muted because of that. Poor leadership at all levels (national, state, local).
Numerous transplants not understanding the nature of the area.
Overdevelopment of land along with forcing structures into areas they never should have been.
No warning systems in place outside of phones.
Tons of other things. Lots of people to blame and every entity will blame someone else and not take ownership of their own failures.
1
Posted on 7/11/25 at 8:10 am to Nado Jenkins83
quote:
Pretty sure they have to sign waivers
Who are "they"?
The estimate yesterday was 100 or so dead and 170 missing. They did not all sign waivers.
Posted on 7/11/25 at 8:11 am to aTmTexas Dillo
quote:
Who are "they"?
he's talking about the camps. The RV Parks are where a large % of these are coming from.
Posted on 7/11/25 at 8:12 am to LemmyLives
quote:
LemmyLives
quote:
Aggy is great at preventing disaster... Too soon?
What in the actual frick is wrong with you?
Posted on 7/11/25 at 8:12 am to AGGIES
I think longer span bridges would have helped. It’s going to be hard to keep me from believing the rise of 27 feet in 45 mins isn’t because of the amount of debris that was lodged between the piers of the bridge. I don’t know the area but it would be interesting to see the river gauge readings upstream and downstream of this one.
Posted on 7/11/25 at 8:13 am to Mr Sausage
quote:
What in the actual frick is wrong with you?
Not really a grown up. He is a snarky SEC fan.
Posted on 7/11/25 at 8:14 am to Mr Sausage
quote:
can we have a show of hands for everyone that has a 200 year storm plan?
I mean this wasn’t a 200 year event. Not even 50. It was something to be seen numerous times in a lifetime spent along that river due to soil and terrain conditions and proximity to the gulf. Your plan should be high arse alert or evac which is common for hurricanes in LA. They were given a good forecast to allow this for the entire region. Human nature and whatever intricacies of it in this area failed.
Posted on 7/11/25 at 8:19 am to Geauxgurt
quote:
Reality is that as is always the case, this was a combination of a lot of things to go wrong. Significant underforecasting of the rainfall levels and rate by the experts. Bad design and location for many of the cabins. An overused alert system that many of us have turned off/muted because of that. Poor leadership at all levels (national, state, local). Numerous transplants not understanding the nature of the area. Overdevelopment of land along with forcing structures into areas they never should have been. No warning systems in place outside of phones. Tons of other things. Lots of people to blame and every entity will blame someone else and not take ownership of their own failures.
This is how you feel with the exception that I think the forecast may have been enough. They could not pinpoint where the big rain events would happen but knew they had likelihoods. Just takes one over the entire watershed with the soil and terrain conditions. So you had to be ready.
Posted on 7/11/25 at 8:19 am to Galactic Inquisitor
quote:
1. Better restrictions on what they build in the floodplains
Be specific. How many miles out from the 100 year flood plain should all private property rights be extinguished? What about the 500 year flood plain? Are they allowed to build a Dollar General in the zone? What about a Post Office? Just no homes or campsites?
Posted on 7/11/25 at 8:20 am to TimeOutdoors
quote:
I think longer span bridges would have helped. It’s going to be hard to keep me from believing the rise of 27 feet in 45 mins isn’t because of the amount of debris that was lodged between the piers of the bridge. I don’t know the area but it would be interesting to see the river gauge readings upstream and downstream of this one.
Its rock and has significant elevation change from the top of the hills to the river valley. Water gets to the creek and river quickly. Flood Events go over the bridges as you move towards the headwaters.
Posted on 7/11/25 at 8:20 am to AGGIES
Amazing how far inland tropical systems can have an impact
We’ve seen it back to back years with Tenn/nc area and now tx hill country
Scary stuff
It might mean the end of camps in that area for good or at least no housing anywhere close to river
Now come the lawsuits
We’ve seen it back to back years with Tenn/nc area and now tx hill country
Scary stuff
It might mean the end of camps in that area for good or at least no housing anywhere close to river
Now come the lawsuits
Posted on 7/11/25 at 8:23 am to NoMercy
quote:
I mean this wasn’t a 200 year event. Not even 50
that's not accurate based on the rainfall data.
quote:
It was something to be seen numerous times in a lifetime spent along that river due to soil and terrain conditions and proximity to the gulf.
this is also inaccurate.
Posted on 7/11/25 at 8:24 am to AGGIES
Nothing. shite happens. I don’t want to live in a world where we prevent every tragedy but have zero fun.
Posted on 7/11/25 at 8:32 am to HeadCall
The real experts need to be looking at this (wouldn’t be surprised if they’re already doing so)
They are the engineers and scientists from the Coastal and Hydraulic Laboratory at the Waterways Experiment Station in Vicksburg.
They are the engineers and scientists from the Coastal and Hydraulic Laboratory at the Waterways Experiment Station in Vicksburg.
Posted on 7/11/25 at 8:38 am to TutHillTiger
quote:
Better warning systems would have saved some lives but truth is this is just a cost of living in that area like Hurricanes and tornadoes are to us and earth quakes, fires and mudslides are to California people .
I get what you're saying but earthquakes in California are extremely low risk. There have been about 10 earthquake deaths in CA in the last 20 years. Every 20 to 30 years they might get a severe one where loss of life is substantial but flooding kills people all the time.
Posted on 7/11/25 at 9:06 am to Powerman
“A computer monitored system could easily detect this. Say a monitor is set up to detect first a one foot and then two foot and then five foot rise etc”
Similar to some other op..
Technology exist
Map terrain with lidar .
Place permanent monitoring system in tributaries upstream and through out river downstream.
Monitor level and rate of rise of water system..
Run the math .. fluid flow in systems are a common problem in many fields.. civil engineering.. petroleum eng. Hydrology.
With today new tech . Let ai do it.
With today’s technology transmits warning to designated static sirens and also responsible human . If one tributary flooded .. warning .. if all of upstream tributaries flooding . Blast a serious warning.
Have sirens and visual alarms posted on river. Have them for different level.. yellow warning to red flashing and blaring constantly.
Have evacuation procedures .. known and practiced not just posted on walls.
Have equipment that can evacuate the amount of residents in the camp in a minimal amount of time. Not random pick up trucks. But Buses.. tractors with trailers etc.. camps can not be overbuilt in areas that can not get the residents out in a set time frame.
Have all campsite have sirens posted inside building also and weather radios in place. Possibly.. have all beds assigned a life vest to be kept at location ( like an offshore crew boat)
Restriction on where buildings can be put that are sleeping quarter
Problem impacts “tourist” and crosses counties .. so imo should be a state solution..
Similar to some other op..
Technology exist
Map terrain with lidar .
Place permanent monitoring system in tributaries upstream and through out river downstream.
Monitor level and rate of rise of water system..
Run the math .. fluid flow in systems are a common problem in many fields.. civil engineering.. petroleum eng. Hydrology.
With today new tech . Let ai do it.
With today’s technology transmits warning to designated static sirens and also responsible human . If one tributary flooded .. warning .. if all of upstream tributaries flooding . Blast a serious warning.
Have sirens and visual alarms posted on river. Have them for different level.. yellow warning to red flashing and blaring constantly.
Have evacuation procedures .. known and practiced not just posted on walls.
Have equipment that can evacuate the amount of residents in the camp in a minimal amount of time. Not random pick up trucks. But Buses.. tractors with trailers etc.. camps can not be overbuilt in areas that can not get the residents out in a set time frame.
Have all campsite have sirens posted inside building also and weather radios in place. Possibly.. have all beds assigned a life vest to be kept at location ( like an offshore crew boat)
Restriction on where buildings can be put that are sleeping quarter
Problem impacts “tourist” and crosses counties .. so imo should be a state solution..
Posted on 7/11/25 at 9:22 am to AGGIES
That was sort of my original point.
You’re either gonna have to remove homes, multiple RV parks, multiple camps, and not let anything be built there ever.
Or
You have to take every single remote, seemingly less dangerous weather conditions a lot more seriously
So I think the flood warnings and flood watches are not adequate. It sounds like the weather service was saying prior to midnight was there was a chance for heavy rain, but their predictions were off by 100%. So if that doesn’t work than nothing else works.
It’s like you need sirens and firefighters going property to property for 30 miles forcing evacuations, which also seems like a huge challenge to pull off. The timing of when you require that is almost impossible to determine.
You’re either gonna have to remove homes, multiple RV parks, multiple camps, and not let anything be built there ever.
Or
You have to take every single remote, seemingly less dangerous weather conditions a lot more seriously
So I think the flood warnings and flood watches are not adequate. It sounds like the weather service was saying prior to midnight was there was a chance for heavy rain, but their predictions were off by 100%. So if that doesn’t work than nothing else works.
It’s like you need sirens and firefighters going property to property for 30 miles forcing evacuations, which also seems like a huge challenge to pull off. The timing of when you require that is almost impossible to determine.
This post was edited on 7/11/25 at 9:24 am
Posted on 7/11/25 at 9:29 am to AGGIES
Phones need to have alerts based upon location, not residence.
Better alert systems. I've heard multiple people say they ignored the warnings because there are always flood warnings. I get flood alerts daily for 1-3 months when the Mississippi in in "flood stage" but safely within its levees. If the is a real event, I'd probably ignore it also.
It's like the color flags on the beach. I don't know the last time I've seen a green flag. Even on days where you could waterski in the gulf. For me a yellow flag is the safest flag I see-
Better alert systems. I've heard multiple people say they ignored the warnings because there are always flood warnings. I get flood alerts daily for 1-3 months when the Mississippi in in "flood stage" but safely within its levees. If the is a real event, I'd probably ignore it also.
It's like the color flags on the beach. I don't know the last time I've seen a green flag. Even on days where you could waterski in the gulf. For me a yellow flag is the safest flag I see-
Posted on 7/11/25 at 9:30 am to NoMercy
quote:
I mean this wasn’t a 200 year event. Not even 50.
Not an expert, but 12 inches of rain in a 6 hour period, seems like it would be a 100+ year event.
Posted on 7/11/25 at 9:32 am to AGGIES
Strange concept here. Don't build and house children in a flood plain.
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