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Started By
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What Happens If the US Does Absolutely Nothing To Combat COVID-19?
Posted on 3/19/20 at 6:00 am
Posted on 3/19/20 at 6:00 am
In a series of tweets, Jeremy C. Young, Assistant Professor of History at Dixie State, summarized what the report says would happen if the U.S. does absolutely nothing. That is, if we treat COVID-19 like the flu, go about our business, and let the virus take its course. The Imperial College team plugged infection and death rates from China, Korea, and Italy into epidemic modeling software and ran a simulation... Here's what would happen:
Better wash those hands!
quote:
80% of Americans would get the disease. 0.9% of them would die. Between 4 and 8 percent of all Americans over the age of 70 would die. 2.2 million Americans would die from the virus itself. It gets worse. People with severe COVID-19 need to be put on ventilators. 50% of those on ventilators still die, but the other 50% live. But in an unmitigated epidemic, the need for ventilators would be 30 times the number available in the US. Nearly 100% of these patients die.
So the actual death toll from the virus would be closer to 4 million Americans -- in a span of 3 months. 8-15% of all Americans over 70 would die. How many is 4 million people? It's more Americans than have died all at once from anything, ever. It's the population of Los Angeles. It's 4 times the number of Americans who died in the Civil War...on both sides combined. It's two-thirds as many people as died in the Holocaust. Americans make up 4.4% of the world's population. If we extrapolate these numbers to the rest of the world (warning: MOE is high here), this gives us 90 million deaths globally from COVID-19, in 3-6 months. 15 Holocausts. 1.5 times as many people as died in all of World War II.
Better wash those hands!
21
Posted on 3/19/20 at 6:09 am to Big_Sur
quote:
the population of Los Angeles
I’ll allow it
Posted on 3/19/20 at 6:10 am to Big_Sur
quote:
at Dixie State
Paging Mississippi State's AD and football scheduler...
Posted on 3/19/20 at 6:46 am to Big_Sur
quote:
0.9% of them would die.
Stopped reading right there. This kind of BS is a big part of the problem we are dealing with.
Posted on 3/19/20 at 6:48 am to Big_Sur
quote:
80% of Americans would get the disease. 0.9% of them would die.
This hasnt been supported by any population anywhere so far, including a cruise ship full of old people.
Posted on 3/19/20 at 6:50 am to Big_Sur
quote:
. 0.9% of them would die
99.1% would live
Posted on 3/19/20 at 6:51 am to Big_Sur
quote:
It's two-thirds as many people as died in the Holocaust.
Posted on 3/19/20 at 6:53 am to SloaneRanger
quote:
Stopped reading right there. This kind of BS is a big part of the problem we are dealing with.
faith healer eh?
Posted on 3/19/20 at 6:55 am to Big_Sur
Yeah I’m going to call BS on their little fantasy. The mortality they project is way overstated. Plus even if it is are 4 mm lives worth dying our economy and triggering another Great Depression? How many people are going to die with 25-30% unemployment over a prolonged period? How many are going to die with rampant homelessness in our cities? If we keep this knee jerk panic up that’s where we are headed all to give some 80 year olds a couple more years to die from the flu anyway.
Posted on 3/19/20 at 6:55 am to Big_Sur
Ah, the morning Chicken Little rally thread. Has it already been 24 hours?
Posted on 3/19/20 at 6:56 am to Big_Sur
The most people would die because trump would get re-elected! We have to crash the economy folks, think of the Mexicans and lgbt people
Posted on 3/19/20 at 6:56 am to Mid Iowa Tiger
quote:
Yeah I’m going to call BS on their little fantasy. The mortality they project is way overstated. Plus even if it is are 4 mm lives worth dying our economy and triggering another Great Depression? How many people are going to die with 25-30% unemployment over a prolonged period? How many are going to die with rampant homelessness in our cities? If we keep this knee jerk panic up that’s where we are headed all to give some 80 year olds a couple more years to die from the flu anyway.
SHUT YOUR MOUTH AND FLATTEN THE frickING CURVE. frick OUR ECONOMY!
Posted on 3/19/20 at 6:56 am to CelticDog
quote:
faith healer eh?
No, and no doctor either but I have informed myself enough to know that the mortality rate is nowhere near 1%.
Posted on 3/19/20 at 6:57 am to Big_Sur
My cleaning woman doesn't message me to tell me she is now working from home and she'll text me my cleaning instructions.
Posted on 3/19/20 at 7:04 am to DownshiftAndFloorIt
Crazy that something that could supposedly kill a whole Holocaust worth of Americans didn’t go ham in China or Japan or Korea. Japan is still planning on hosting the Olympics. China and Korea are restarting basketball leagues. The true mortality rate of this thing is probably minuscule and will never be known due to the vast vast number of people who get it and don’t know or get tested.
Posted on 3/19/20 at 7:05 am to Big_Sur
quote:
Between 4 and 8 percent of all Americans over the age of 70 would die.
I wonder what percentage of this cohort dies every single year?
Want to know why this is a national emergency? Go look at a picture of congress and the POTUS, aint many spring chickes among the bunch.
They are simply worried about saving their own arse and know they wont be around to foot the bill.
Posted on 3/19/20 at 7:09 am to cave canem
Over the last week I've realized this board is filled with fricking idiots.
Posted on 3/19/20 at 7:09 am to cave canem
quote:I do get the feeling that the wrong demographic is making decisions right now.
ant to know why this is a national emergency? Go look at a picture of congress and the POTUS, aint many spring chickes among the bunch.
Posted on 3/19/20 at 7:17 am to BobRoss
quote:
Over the last week I've realized this board is filled with fricking idiots.
Lots of them that are to obtuse to recognize sarcasm and run around looking to be offended for sure.
Posted on 3/19/20 at 7:24 am to DownshiftAndFloorIt
quote:
This hasnt been supported by any population anywhere so far, including a cruise ship full of old people.
What?
Most places which extensively test are around that figure. Lowest I saw being SK at .7%
Hell, if you want to assume that in this hysteria, only half of those infected ever go to get tested, you would get to that .9% number right now in the US
This post was edited on 3/19/20 at 7:27 am
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