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re: Weather technology is becoming too good
Posted on 4/19/19 at 6:07 am to tgrbaitn08
Posted on 4/19/19 at 6:07 am to tgrbaitn08
quote:
I started getting text and emails from my kids school at 5 am this morning saying school was closed due to the threat of tornado activity throughout the day.
Jesus man
2
Posted on 4/19/19 at 7:04 am to TH03
Don’t bother. He’s apparently too clueless to even realize how he sounds.
Posted on 4/19/19 at 7:18 am to slackster
quote:
And if they let kids out half way through the day, the bitching on this board would be on another level.
But not from me
It’s common sense.
Posted on 4/19/19 at 7:35 am to HueyP
quote:
They blew it and scared the absolute shite out of the media addicted sheep. They should he held responsible for the mental injury they inflicted.
The sun was shining this morning and I had employees sitting at their desks crying because they were terrified.
Is selling a few more commercials really worth the fear they induce?
People died yesterday from the tornadoes.
Posted on 4/19/19 at 7:55 am to TH03
quote:
Jesus man
Why is that so hard to believe? I got a text from school at 5:51 am and an email from school at 5:55 am
Why would I make that up?
Posted on 4/19/19 at 8:03 am to tgrbaitn08
You have GOT to be trolling.
Posted on 4/19/19 at 10:25 am to TDsngumbo
I didnt mind the closure.
My normal way to work is closed due to bridge repair....a bridge on the detour collapsed tuesday...Wednesday morning parish work crew was filling in 2 washouts with gravel on that detour and the only other way is about 6 inches from water going over the road.
Wouldn't have taken much to flood and cut a lot of people off from getting home.
My normal way to work is closed due to bridge repair....a bridge on the detour collapsed tuesday...Wednesday morning parish work crew was filling in 2 washouts with gravel on that detour and the only other way is about 6 inches from water going over the road.
Wouldn't have taken much to flood and cut a lot of people off from getting home.
Posted on 4/19/19 at 10:52 am to doubleb
quote:
But not from me
It’s common sense.
With all due respect, it would be an abaolut clusterfrick if they closed school across the area halfway through the day. That's not debatable.
Posted on 4/19/19 at 12:12 pm to joshwj93
quote:
Both people that were killed in Mississippi were traffic fatalities related to the weather.
But, a fatality in Alabama last night, the woman was in her mobile home and a tree fell on her house.
Posted on 4/19/19 at 12:28 pm to East Coast Band
I think back to the convective allowing models the SPC uses, on Wednesday evening. They showed most of the UH up in Mississippi. Had a messy convection mechanism in Louisiana. Storms severe into Alabama. They each had different solutions but the aggregate was pretty much on point.
It's hard not to be impressed just how right those got the situation yesterday. Just ten years ago, there wasn't nearly this quality in modeling.
It's hard not to be impressed just how right those got the situation yesterday. Just ten years ago, there wasn't nearly this quality in modeling.
Posted on 4/19/19 at 12:31 pm to East Coast Band
quote:
But, a fatality in Alabama last night, the woman was in her mobile home and a tree fell on her house.
You cant stop all fatalities however I think we can all agree the less people on the roads the better. Also I still think alot of the closures were just due to there being a long weekend anyway.
Posted on 4/19/19 at 12:31 pm to Duke
quote:
I think back to the convective allowing models the SPC uses, on Wednesday evening. They showed most of the UH up in Mississippi. Had a messy convection mechanism in Louisiana. Storms severe into Alabama. They each had different solutions but the aggregate was pretty much on point.
It's hard not to be impressed just how right those got the situation yesterday. Just ten years ago, there wasn't nearly this quality in modeling.
Duke, in this instant content consumption age, dildos are bitching that you cant tell them within a minute if a tornado will drop on their house at 5pm on x day.
I for one thank you and rds for allowing a hobby of mine to grow in the knowledge that I didn't have before.
Posted on 4/19/19 at 12:36 pm to 50_Tiger
quote:
Duke, in this instant content consumption age, dildos are bitching that you cant tell them within a minute if a tornado will drop on their house at 5pm on x day.
Victims of their own success, the weather people.
quote:
I for one thank you and rds for allowing a hobby of mine to grow in the knowledge that I didn't have before
Glad you've enjoyed learning more. I know I have from dudes like rds.
It was a hobby for me too, but so much of one I've forgone doing engineering and am working on a met degree now. It's great to have others here who are interested too, to share my fascination with the sky.
Posted on 4/19/19 at 2:04 pm to TDsngumbo
I think it’s worth to have the conversation that local media can be way too obsessed with the weather and will hype events to a level that’s unnecessary for ratings. That starts a ripple effect to where local schools/organizations feel like they have to be too proactive.
In Alabama, 4/27/11 & Snowmageddon 2014 have created this narrative that every potential event has to be hyped up. Then the busts (which seems to happen more often than not) are a lot more noticeable than they used to be because now everyone has rearranged their day.
In Alabama, 4/27/11 & Snowmageddon 2014 have created this narrative that every potential event has to be hyped up. Then the busts (which seems to happen more often than not) are a lot more noticeable than they used to be because now everyone has rearranged their day.
Posted on 4/19/19 at 3:07 pm to TDsngumbo
quote:
I’m saying we rely on model output a little too much in some instances. Perhaps do away with the “slight/enhanced/moderate/high risk crap. Just say “hey, the potential for severe weather and tornadoes exists tomorrow so prepare and pay attention”. Too much of a good thing can sometimes be a bad thing.
The entire point of a numerical model is to quantify something
Posted on 4/19/19 at 4:25 pm to slackster
quote:
With all due respect, it would be an abaolut clusterfrick if they closed school across the area halfway through the day. That's not debatable.
It’s been done several times in recent years with few issues.
Buses roll, parents car pool, whatever.
Posted on 4/19/19 at 4:27 pm to Duke
quote:
It's hard not to be impressed just how right those got the situation yesterday. Just ten years ago, there wasn't nearly this quality in modeling.
You have a link to quantify just how much better the 24 hour forecast has gotten over the last decade?
Posted on 4/19/19 at 4:43 pm to doubleb
PDF From UAlbany From 2014 Looking At SPC Forecasting Skill
Page 4 has a nice chart to look at and see how the forecasting skill has improved over the past two decades, with full explanations of how they determined it.
Page 4 has a nice chart to look at and see how the forecasting skill has improved over the past two decades, with full explanations of how they determined it.
Posted on 4/19/19 at 4:56 pm to Duke
That chart shows no improvent in the 24 hour forecast from 2006 to 2012 where it stops.
My personal experience, certainly not scientific, indicates that although we see forecasts given 3, 5 and even 10 days out; there’s really not much difference in the 24 hour forecast.
The link provided isn’t current so I can’t really determine if I’m right or wrong.
My personal experience, certainly not scientific, indicates that although we see forecasts given 3, 5 and even 10 days out; there’s really not much difference in the 24 hour forecast.
The link provided isn’t current so I can’t really determine if I’m right or wrong.
Posted on 4/19/19 at 5:10 pm to markasaurus
quote:
Fear sells. Ratings result from fear. Media eats this stuff up. Social media influence makes it take off like wildfire.
But this isn't ratings period so...
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