re: We are now 162 years removed from the first day of the Battle of Gettysburg...

Ewell had just taken command of Stonewall Jackson’s 2nd corps just a few weeks prior when Jackson was shot by friendly fire. He had never been in command of that many forces before which is s big reason I think Ewell was so hesitant. Had Jackson been in command still I believe it’s fairly certain to assume that he pushes onward, likely capturing the high ground, even with tired and scattered forces it still would have likely been enough as the federals were steadily being beaten backwards the first day before the union had time to bring up reserves or fortify defensive positions such as Cemetery Hill. Jackson, like Lee would have known that if they waited, the union’s superior numbers of men and artillery would dig in, making it almost impossible to push a superior force off dug in positions on the high ground, requiring to attack uphill. Had Ewell been able to capture Cemetery Hill that first night, theres a solid chance that General Meade being new to command would not have wanted to fight with the high ground belonging to Lee. There are many what ifs with this battle as the fortunes could have gone either way several times. What if JEB Stuart’s cavalry was near to occupy Buford’s or what if Lee had taken Longstreet’s idea of maneuvering their army between Meade’s army and Washington. My theory is if Ewell takes Cemetery Hill the first night that Gettysburg turns into a series of localized engagements instead of a huge battle. The south generally had better officers and cavalry that could maneuver easier and faster than the larger union army could. Once the north wised up and learned to use their numerical advantage to their benefit, along with putting officers like Grant, Sherman and Hancock in charge who accepted high casualties of their own forces to wear down the smaller confederates, it was just a matter of time.