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re: Watching the price of lumber

Posted on 5/5/21 at 4:06 pm to
Posted by CatfishJohn
Member since Jun 2020
13394 posts
Posted on 5/5/21 at 4:06 pm to
quote:

Yeah this is insane. At some point these lumber mills will start expanding right?



One way or another, the free market will work itself out. Just a matter of time and how much patience you have if you have a project you're trying to complete.
Posted by baldona
Florida
Member since Feb 2016
20444 posts
Posted on 5/5/21 at 4:15 pm to
quote:

Why would they? They are making record profits with less overhead. Fewer mills mean fewer employees, and things to break down.



You realize expansion would be 3rd parties right? Outside competition? If profit is that great, someone else will join until it comes back down to being very competitive again.
Posted by biohzrd
Central City
Member since Jan 2010
5602 posts
Posted on 5/5/21 at 5:14 pm to
quote:

You realize expansion would be 3rd parties right? Outside competition? If profit is that great, someone else will join until it comes back down to being very competitive again.


As shown during the housing boom thanks to the reverse mortgage, no down payment, 120% loan debacle we went through years back.

Container ships full of lumber coming in from other countries cheaper then we could mill it here. The big guys know this, and will exploit it as long as they can.

There are members on this site whom have taken classes from my dad at LSU pertaining to this topic, or know him in a professional setting. I grew up with him, so I know a little of what I’m talking about.
Posted by bcflash
bossier city
Member since Oct 2016
447 posts
Posted on 5/5/21 at 5:20 pm to
And concrete over 130 a yard.
Posted by Sayre
Felixville
Member since Nov 2011
5507 posts
Posted on 5/5/21 at 5:37 pm to
Posted by RatherHunt
Louisiana
Member since Feb 2021
157 posts
Posted on 5/5/21 at 6:25 pm to
*Cough *cough felony charge
Posted by 3nOut
Central Texas, TX
Member since Jan 2013
28878 posts
Posted on 5/5/21 at 6:31 pm to
quote:

I grew up just south of there. That area needed something good to happen


Huntington or Diboll? I work with both school districts and those places are backwoods AF.

I had a meeting with an assistant superintendent and he dipped the whole time.



ETA: not a knock on them at all. I’d much rather work with those districts than Austin or Houston ISD.
This post was edited on 5/5/21 at 6:32 pm
Posted by biohzrd
Central City
Member since Jan 2010
5602 posts
Posted on 5/5/21 at 6:44 pm to
quote:

Huntington or Diboll


Technically Diboll, but actually even further in the woods of Bulah.

I remember riding my bike through clearcuts only to play around in the piles of hardwoods Temple wouldn’t take.


I have to give you some credit for even knowing Diboll or huntignton are towns. They are deep Pineywoods towns that not many people even know about.
This post was edited on 5/5/21 at 7:49 pm
Posted by Saintsisit
Member since Jan 2013
3924 posts
Posted on 5/5/21 at 8:27 pm to
quote:

You know the funny thing is contractors just leave all that wood exposed and unguarded while building.


I saw lumber dropped off at a new construction the other day. And I've never seen a house go up that fast . They said yall going to work if you want to steal this.
Posted by evil cockroach
27.98N // 86.92E
Member since Nov 2007
7459 posts
Posted on 5/5/21 at 9:17 pm to
quote:

The price of lumber is going up. The price for timber is not going up.
this. There is a shortage of lumber not a shortage of trees in the forest
Posted by PowerTool
The dark side of the road
Member since Dec 2009
21153 posts
Posted on 5/5/21 at 9:17 pm to
I worked a couple months in Deep East Texas. Slowed the frick down driving through Corrigan and Diboll.

This was mid 2000’s when pretty much anyone you talked to could tell you about the mills consolidating and offshoring to China so they could send back composite pulp junk.
Posted by 3nOut
Central Texas, TX
Member since Jan 2013
28878 posts
Posted on 5/5/21 at 9:41 pm to
quote:

I have to give you some credit for even knowing Diboll or huntignton are towns. They are deep Pineywoods towns that not many people even know about.




I work with schools all over Texas and have driven every inch of of 10, 20, and 35.

Not a lot of towns I haven’t been in or close to.
Posted by No Colors
Sandbar
Member since Sep 2010
10384 posts
Posted on 5/5/21 at 9:46 pm to
quote:

With so many shutting down in the past couple of years, and others only running minimal output the last year thank to China virus, the supply of lumber is low.


Just for the record, a couple of corrections

1) 40% of the pine sawmills in the Southeast shut down between 2008 and 2010. But none have shut down recently. Several new ones have been built and several more are under construction.

2) none are running on minimal output due to covid. Every mill is running wide open. Most are running 20 hours a day, 6 days a week.

3) the primary item that is in short supply is SPF studs. This is because Canada has grossly over harvested their forests for decades. And they can't hide it any more. Several sawmills close every year in Canada. And that pace of closures will accelerate. So the lack of SPF studs is creating a domino effect into other products.

4) the only part of the world that is currently growin an excess of softwood logs, and has the infrastructure to support increased manufacturing, is the Southeast USA. We are the Saudi Arabia of pine timber. The world will be turning to us to supply fiber over the coming decades.

Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
53923 posts
Posted on 5/5/21 at 9:49 pm to
Hell, I was in Lowe's today and they didn't even have any treated lumber priced. I guess that's easier than changing every time a load comes in.
This post was edited on 5/5/21 at 9:55 pm
Posted by The Torch
DFW The Dub
Member since Aug 2014
19276 posts
Posted on 5/5/21 at 9:53 pm to
How is all of this affecting the the pulp wood haulers or whatever they are .

The log trucks in North La

A friend of mine used to run a crew that did 100-120 loads a week and he made a decent living off of it.

He sold out 4 years ago
This post was edited on 5/5/21 at 10:05 pm
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
53923 posts
Posted on 5/5/21 at 9:54 pm to
Some interesting info in this video. How accurate is it? I really don't know.
Who is getting rich off lumber prices? (YouTube)
Posted by FCP
Delta State Univ. - Fightin' Okra
Member since Sep 2010
4785 posts
Posted on 5/5/21 at 9:59 pm to
quote:

One way or another, the free market will work itself out. Just a matter of time and how much patience you have if you have a project you're trying to complete
I've got three words for ya: "LX25 Portable Sawmill." Wood-Mizer is selling their entry level mill for $3,300.

Buddy of mine has a larger model, and he's making bank filling orders for small GCs around the area. Buy one of these and cut down trees to build your house/carport/shed/whatever, then sell the excess at the current, historical prices. You could easily pay for the mill itself, and you could probably get a few extra shillings on top of that if you're willing to keep milling.
Posted by Martini
Near Athens
Member since Mar 2005
48838 posts
Posted on 5/5/21 at 10:00 pm to
quote:

You know the funny thing is contractors just leave all that wood exposed and unguarded while building.


I saw lumber dropped off at a new construction the other day. And I've never seen a house go up that fast . They said yall going to work if you want to steal this.




I had a project in Angola a few years ago and had a load of lumber delivered on a Friday afternoon with all my guys gone so I had to drive up and spot it in the parking lot. Old Bull guard said “son you better get that wood inside that building or it will be turned into rocking chairs by Monday. “ sure enough they show up Monday morning and a couple big bundles of 2 x 6’ #2 pine was gone. No one saw anything of course.
Posted by Paul Allen
Montauk, NY
Member since Nov 2007
75185 posts
Posted on 5/5/21 at 10:01 pm to
No you didn’t
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
53923 posts
Posted on 5/5/21 at 10:02 pm to
Don't be rude, Paul.
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