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re: Wall Street: Housing market to see 2nd biggest home price decline since Great Depression
Posted on 10/4/22 at 12:17 pm to SDVTiger
Posted on 10/4/22 at 12:17 pm to SDVTiger
quote:
So are you predicting a housing meltdown like 08?
Cause nothing shows that to be happening
We are in a completely different cycle this time around because historically in every recession the US has gone through interest rates actually fell. In this recession interest rates are rising as the Fed aggressively is rising rates to try to bottom out the economy to get us back to the bottom so we the economy can start growing again.
I do know that right now we are in the 1st inning of the default market and I'm hearing by 2024 around the housing inventory will consist of around 20-30% of foreclosed properties. Don't get crazy though with that number as we are going to continue to have an inventory shortage because most people who locked in their homes and their investment properties with 2-4% mortgage loans are going to hold on to their properties so we will continue to have a tight supply going forward in most markets across the US. The supply will just consist of 20-30% of the foreclosed properties.
With all that said its going to hurt a lot of people who are already struggling to make ends meet.
2
Posted on 10/4/22 at 12:19 pm to JohnnyKilroy
quote:
Really depends on the area.
Shitty overbuilt exurbs featuring 150 homes with the same floorplan are probably going to get crushed. Highly desirable suburbs with well maintained quality homes will probably maintain or even keep going up, albeit much more slowly than the last couple of years.
Thats what I'm thinking. The nice neighborhoods are going to keep value. I don't think people are just going to chop off 20% off the price just because the marker is bad. They just won't sell
Posted on 10/4/22 at 12:20 pm to fallguy_1978
quote:
I've seen some analysts predict 20-25% declines in some markets.
GFY
Posted on 10/4/22 at 12:23 pm to MrLSU
quote:
by 2024 around the housing inventory will consist of around 20-30% of foreclosed properties.
I dont see that happening.
That would make more than one major financial institution fail.
Posted on 10/4/22 at 12:23 pm to WaWaWeeWa
quote:
Where is Paul Allen?
He said prices were going to go up because of lack if supply
You can’t have rising interest rates and inflation and expect housing prices to keep rising when they are at all time highs.
It’s economics 101
It depends on where in the country you live. Texas, Florida, Tennessee, Carolinas are all experiencing and will continue to see an influx of residents from New York, California, Illinois, etc. (the high tax & politically blue states). There is not only a tax migration taking place but also a political migration taking place so those red states with low taxes will continue to see massive growth.
Also the best way to financially leverage your way through a recession is to purchase real estate. Those with cash know now is the time to buy real estate because the best time to buy is when no one wants to buy and the worst time to buy is when everyone wants to buy.
Posted on 10/4/22 at 12:27 pm to stout
quote:
quote:
by 2024 around the housing inventory will consist of around 20-30% of foreclosed properties.
I dont see that happening.
That would make more than one major financial institution fail.
Bookmark the post because those percentages are what multiple large REO institutions are forecasting right now. Again, this will be available inventory. I'm not saying that 20-30% of all available homes will be in foreclosure just the future inventory numbers I'm being told will be 20-30%.
And yes you will see the Non-Bank Lending sector consolidate which is what I mentioned above. Buy Bank stocks avoid non-bank lender stocks.
This post was edited on 10/4/22 at 12:32 pm
Posted on 10/4/22 at 12:42 pm to stout
quote:
ts not that rare. Divorce, job less, etc still sends many people spiraling out of control. I see it constantly in my line of business.
I know someone thats in the bankruptcy attorney biz and they said that foreclosures are practically non-existent so that they no longer have source of houses to flip.
Posted on 10/4/22 at 12:42 pm to MrLSU
quote:
I do know that right now we are in the 1st inning of the default market and I'm hearing by 2024 around the housing inventory will consist of around 20-30% of foreclosed properties. Don't get crazy though with that number as we are going to continue to have an inventory shortage because most people who locked in their homes and their investment properties with 2-4% mortgage loans are going to hold on to their properties so we will continue to have a tight supply going forward in most markets across the US. The supply will just consist of 20-30% of the foreclosed properties
I agree that people with a home that they can afford aren't eager to move unless they have a life changing event (divorce, job move, job loss, financial event).
But I find myself becoming more and more skeptical about the housing shortage narrative the NAR has been pushing.
They seem to ignore a bunch of obvious problems with the shortage argument such as:
1. home ownership rates are around 65% which is pretty typical historically (not consistent with the belief that an unusual shortage exists)
2. a lot of people (including baby boomers who will die over the next 10 years) own more than one home - second and third homes are financial weights to be sold when the economy degrades or life events happen;
3. investor ownership tends to boom with increasing prices but can reverse into extra supply when private and corporate investors start going underwater - if lots of renters stop paying or being able to afford the rent many investors will make a purely financial decision to sell;
4. apartments, condos, and other rentals are alternatives to housing and have been overbuilt recently;
5. foreclosures haven't started and that will be more supply at the wrong time when prices are being forced downwards.
I don't think housing prices fall off a cliff in most places (outside of stuff like California, Austin, Boise, Phoenix, and Florida) but I think there are a bunch of reasons value has to decrease over the next few years
Posted on 10/4/22 at 12:44 pm to Tempratt
quote:
I know someone thats in the bankruptcy attorney biz and they said that foreclosures are practically non-existent so that they no longer have source of houses to flip.
I have no student loans and my house is paid off. How dumb am I?
BTW - when do my property taxes go down? There's no indication from my county that they have any plans to lower them.
This post was edited on 10/4/22 at 12:45 pm
Posted on 10/4/22 at 12:44 pm to Abstract Queso Dip
quote:
No one can explain to me these 40 percent market corrections. The only thing that I see is a bunch of overleveraged wishcaster econ people at hedgefunds.
And they won’t be punished either. They will in fact be bailed out because they are “Too big to fail”
Posted on 10/4/22 at 12:45 pm to NIH
HCAD lowered my appraised value by $6. lmao.
Posted on 10/4/22 at 12:46 pm to athenslife101
quote:
It’s bad for the real estate industry at large who’ve been mass buying houses who will see major losses.
Good.
Posted on 10/4/22 at 12:50 pm to stout
Deals to be made. Love it.
Posted on 10/4/22 at 1:05 pm to stout
Good. I might be moving to NOLA. I need a nice place in Old Metairie for a steal.
Posted on 10/4/22 at 2:01 pm to Jones
quote:
The nice neighborhoods are going to keep value. I don't think people are just going to chop off 20% off the price just because the marker is bad. They just won't sell
Instead of outgrowing and moving, i think we will see a lot more remodels and expansions in the next few years. Or at least that is what I am priming my wife for
we are in a good location that is unless Houston goes full detroit
Posted on 10/4/22 at 3:45 pm to RedHawk
quote:I got almost the exact same rate at the exact same time(refi).
I got 2.75% in summer of 21. If I borrowed the same amount of money at 7% it would have been another $1,000 a month in my mortgage.
Wife is wanting to move soon, never messes with any of our financials, and simply can't grasp this whole interest rate thing and how much more expensive it'll be even for a similarly priced house.
This post was edited on 10/4/22 at 3:57 pm
Posted on 10/4/22 at 3:47 pm to shel311
scouting real estate right now would be soul crushing with high prices and high rates
This post was edited on 10/4/22 at 4:17 pm
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