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re: Wall Street: Housing market to see 2nd biggest home price decline since Great Depression
Posted on 10/4/22 at 9:44 am to The Third Leg
Posted on 10/4/22 at 9:44 am to The Third Leg
quote:
but this won’t be a 2008 level apocalypse.
Nothing will ever be that but as I said in my OP the one thing to keep an eye on is the 400K mortgages still in some form of forbearance.
Once the economy opened back up, were seeing double-digit percentage drops of people coming out of forbearance. That stopped like 6 months ago and the percentage of those leaving forbearance every month is small. Numbers like .02% leaving monthly. The last I looked we were in the 350K range.
Actually, some forbearance rates have increased due to infaltion people went back into forbearance.
quote:
By loan type, the number of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loans (GSE) in forbearance also decreased two basis points from 0.34% to 0.32% in August 2022, while Ginnie Mae loans in forbearance increased from 1.26% to 1.32%. The forbearance share for portfolio loans and private-label securities (PLS) declined eight basis points, from 1.34% to 1.26%
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Posted on 10/4/22 at 9:45 am to diat150
quote:
houses are still way overpriced in South LA. Hoping things start dropping so I can try and lowball someone and get a great deal.
If you will be borrowing from a bank the higher interest rates will drive up your monthly payments more than the probable drop in home values.
Just plug numbers into a mortgage calculator if you don't understand. The difference in a monthly payment is massive when people go from borrowing at 2.8% to borrowing at 6.8%
The 2.8% cheap money is the biggest part of what fueled the rapid growth of home prices
Posted on 10/4/22 at 9:46 am to GreatLakesTiger24
quote:
maybe not buying a house in 2021 wasn't the mistake of a lifetime, as i've been told so many times
Bought in BR metro in Nov 2021 and rented the house back to the previous owner until we moved in summer 2022. I’ll let you know if that was a huge mistake or an accidentally brilliant move on the other side of this recession.
But I’m not usually that lucky, and I am rarely brilliant.
Posted on 10/4/22 at 9:46 am to GreatLakesTiger24
quote:
maybe not buying a house in 2021 wasn't the mistake of a lifetime, as i've been told so many times
Really depends on the area.
Shitty overbuilt exurbs featuring 150 homes with the same floorplan are probably going to get crushed. Highly desirable suburbs with well maintained quality homes will probably maintain or even keep going up, albeit much more slowly than the last couple of years.
Posted on 10/4/22 at 9:46 am to stout
Cheap interest rates drove housing prices over what they were worth.
It’s correction season. Hopefully this time they won’t bail out the banks. No one is too big to fail.
It’s correction season. Hopefully this time they won’t bail out the banks. No one is too big to fail.
Posted on 10/4/22 at 9:49 am to diat150
quote:
houses are still way overpriced in South LA. Hoping things start dropping so I can try and lowball someone and get a great deal.
Like all things RE….Depends on where. Areas that are more dependent on oil and gas will probably weather the recession better than tourism-dependent communities. So the correction will probably be more acute in New Orleans than in Lake Charles, Houma, Lafayette, or the area around Baton Rouge.
Farm land is insanely expensive now at least in my area in Louisiana, especially considering how much more financing is right now. But there are a lot of disturbing reasons for that.
Posted on 10/4/22 at 9:51 am to stout
I'll make sure to let MCAD know when those Mfers decide to increase my appraisal again next year
Posted on 10/4/22 at 9:52 am to JohnnyKilroy
The suburbs will probably weather whatever is coming better than inner cities where townhomes are going for $500k - $1m only a few blocks next to a crack den.
Posted on 10/4/22 at 9:53 am to diat150
quote:
I just pulled up a random house but in what fricking world is this a 400k house? tiny arse yard, shitty portable building. the outside still looks like 1950, and the inside is hideous. I feel like this house should be no more than $100 sqft.
Drop that house in Dallas proper and it might push $1M in the right areas, and I’m not talking highland park.
Posted on 10/4/22 at 10:00 am to stout
Good. maybe my property taxes that skyrockets last year will come down a few pennies.
Posted on 10/4/22 at 10:01 am to stout
I’m not seeing it where I’m at. Shite is being listed crazy high, getting a ton of showings and under contract within a week
Posted on 10/4/22 at 10:03 am to kingbob
quote:
Some how, some way, BR area prices will only go up.
Broome thanks you for your increased tax donations
Posted on 10/4/22 at 10:06 am to The Third Leg
quote:I couldnt imagine being able to afford a 1 mil house note and that being the house I have to call home.
Drop that house in Dallas proper and it might push $1M in the right areas, and I’m not talking highland park.
Posted on 10/4/22 at 10:06 am to diat150
quote:
I just pulled up a random house but in what fricking world is this a 400k house? tiny arse yard, shitty portable building. the outside still looks like 1950, and the inside is hideous. I feel like this house should be no more than $100 sqft.
And in Bendel Gardens, that might be a tear down hat it not been renovated. Not uncommon for older homes like that to be demolished and replaced with a monstrosity in that area.
This post was edited on 10/4/22 at 10:14 am
Posted on 10/4/22 at 10:07 am to diat150
I’ve seen 100+ year old remodels on 7.5k sq ft lots going for over $350/sq foot—post rate hikes.
Posted on 10/4/22 at 10:11 am to molsusports
quote:
The difference in a monthly payment is massive when people go from borrowing at 2.8% to borrowing at 6.8%
I got 2.75% in summer of 21. If I borrowed the same amount of money at 7% it would have been another $1,000 a month in my mortgage.
Posted on 10/4/22 at 10:15 am to stout
Works for me. I'm buying a house next year.
Posted on 10/4/22 at 10:17 am to fallguy_1978
quote:
I've seen some analysts predict 20-25% declines in some markets
I imagine this will be the case for many areas. With everything being expensive, interest rates increasing and houses being way overpriced in the the first place, people are going to get very selective and others will just be priced out unless there are steep declines.
Posted on 10/4/22 at 10:17 am to stout
I'm ready to purchase another home 
Posted on 10/4/22 at 10:27 am to stout
I think I really lucked out. Bought my first home in July of 2020 with a 2.75% fixed rate.
I was especially lucky because I got the house the first day it was listed for $6k less than it appraised. Lexington, KY is the type of market that I think will be pretty well shielded from the housing decline, seeing as how there isn’t really any new housing being built in Fayette County (not much room left to build neighborhoods and all the horse farm land is protected).
That, combined with the fact that over the past 12 years more people have moved to Lexington than did Louisville, there is definitely not a ton of inventory on the market. Surrounding counties might be in a worse situation though.
My current home isn’t going to be my forever home, but I don't mind holding on to it for 10 years or so if the market doesnt make sense.
I was especially lucky because I got the house the first day it was listed for $6k less than it appraised. Lexington, KY is the type of market that I think will be pretty well shielded from the housing decline, seeing as how there isn’t really any new housing being built in Fayette County (not much room left to build neighborhoods and all the horse farm land is protected).
That, combined with the fact that over the past 12 years more people have moved to Lexington than did Louisville, there is definitely not a ton of inventory on the market. Surrounding counties might be in a worse situation though.
My current home isn’t going to be my forever home, but I don't mind holding on to it for 10 years or so if the market doesnt make sense.
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