re: US Home Sellers outnumber Buyers by almost 500,000, the largest gap ever recorded

quote:

---

Said there was a housing shortage and that we needed millions more homes and this was a driver to home prices. Does this new number mean we built those homes or did people just quit looking for homes?

---

In my neighborhood people are still asking for insane prices while interest rates keep skyrocketing.


Some of them still sell, but it’s not near as fast as a year or two ago. Interest rates are really hurting buyers right now.

Downvoted for encroaching on KStouts bread and butter

Problem is that landlords pass on the higher expenses to renters. One should do all they can to hang onto their home. At least they’ll have something. 2 years ago insurance caused my mortgage to take nearly a paycheck. I doubled down and made it work. It wasn’t fun. This year it’s much better but who knows what next year brings. It’s a shame to see people lose homes bc of insurance costs

quote:

---

Said there was a housing shortage and that we needed millions more homes and this was a driver to home prices. Does this new number mean we built those homes or did people just quit looking for homes?

---

The housing shortage hasn’t been as bad as it’s been made out to be. A lot of the panic was fueled by marketing from builders, realtors, and others trying to push people into bidding wars and justify rising prices.

Any shortage we did have was largely artificial, driven by things like hedge funds buying up entire developments of single-family homes for rentals, boomers holding onto second or third homes, "zombie houses," and the explosion of short-term rentals.

Yes, inventory is tight in certain cities or neighborhoods, but it’s not as dire as they’ve been preaching. We’re short on new homes mainly because people have been convinced they need a brand-new house instead of considering older homes or fixer-uppers. There are still plenty of houses available in good areas that just need a little work, but people often pass them over.

I bought a foreclosure last week to add to my rental portfolio. It needs repairs, but anyone could’ve bought it. Most people probably didn’t want to deal with the work or see the opportunity to build equity. They’re looking for something turnkey, new, or already remodeled. I could flip this house for an $60K to $80K profit, easy. That means if someone had bought it and put in the effort, they’d have instant equity. But it seems like fewer people are willing to do that anymore.

They all want new, and builders have had an issue keeping up, but that has changed as builders' confidence is at the lowest levels since 2012 (excluding COVID which is junk data) and permits have slowed down. All the new nighborhoods from DSLD or whoever look like shite within 4-5 years anyway so the less of those being built the better IMO.







The truth is, we have more housing per capita in the U.S. now than at any point in history.

quote:

---

It's hard to trust the 'experts' in damn near anything. There is a ton of of supply multifamily housing, ie apartments, for people to live in around the country. That reduces demand for single family homes. Next, the foreclosure pauses for federal program mortgages have created a giant backlog of people seriously behind on their mortgages who will lose their houses. Joe Biden paused it. That will release a ton of additional inventory. A ton of new houses have been built. There are ghost neighborhoods in Florida, Texas, and all over where they sit vacant. The nationwide home builders only officially list a few at a time so it doesn't look like a glut. This is well documented in YouTube videos where actual real estate people, rather than armchair analysts, go to the empty neighborhoods.

---

Nailed it.

Despite what interest rates do, 2026 is going to be interesting once foreclosures start piling up. The COVID forbearance ends in October, and it takes 60 to 90 days for the preforeclosure process to start. So by January or February, that will happen, and some of those houses will be hitting the market by summer time, depending on the state, as some states have a longer process than others

FNMA and Freddie now actively combating mortgage fraud to keep people from lying to buy 2nd, 3rd, and 4th homes to use as rentals will also have a huge impact. Now those people will have to actually put 20% down and pay higher rates normally associated with investment properties so there will be fewer people who can or are willing to do that.

quote:

---

Downvoted for encroaching on KStouts bread and butter

---

Yea that bastard!


When I start a RE thread people reeeeeeeeeee about it like you have been warning us for 3 or 4 years now and telling me I was wrong, as if these things happen overnight.








Also, from the Redfin data in the OP here, it is broken down by cities

quote:

---

Yet they aren't.

We need to figure out why that is.

---

Uh yes they are, depending on your area.

We are still at the early stages of any correction but prices peaked around 2022, and several areas have seen a price decrease since then. Austin prices have dropped around 23% since the peak

Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here.

quote:

---

I think the cliff's note is that asking prices are simply too high and need to come down a tiny bit.

---

Meme worthy



ETA: Lily Katz of Redfin, an author of the article quoted in the OP:

quote:

---

My point stands.

---

I have made it a policy not to argue with retards.

Carry on

quote:

---

Mortgage rates are too high at current prices

---

Or prices are too high at current mortgage rates. Only one of the two can the sellers control.