re: U.S Home Sales on track for worst year since 1995

People won't start buying homes again until they feel secure about their future and right now most people are not feeling secure about the future.

Because the housing industry is pricing houses to the point that most of the regular folks in this country can not afford the buy a house anymore. They have priced people out of the market all together.

Having drywall and lumber being primarily imported from other countries definitely does not help either

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This is my fear. Obviously spending cuts are needed but Trump may have to slow walk it to avoid a gigantic recession.

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I've been saying for over a year that a recession is inevitable and it's because of the insane deficit spending during COVID combined with the supply chain shutdowns.

The excessive spending (PPP, stimmy checks, rent forbearance, etc) combined with fewer goods and services caused inflation so hot and workers to sit on the sidelines (sucking the government tits) that businesses had to ramp up pay increases to get/keep workers. That caused businesses to have to increase prices, further exacerbating inflation.

During all of this, consumers began offsetting the extra costs onto the backs of their credit cards (many of them simply not willing to sacrifice their lifestyles, see cruise ship bookings or Disney World ticket sales, etc). The US consumer is now at a record high amount of debt (something like $17-$18T) with a lot of it on credit cards running 20+% interest. And they're still doing it. This means an increasing amount of household incomes are going just to service consumer debt (ie: not paying it down... just like the federal government).

Eventually that has to come to an end whether that's the consumers cutting back on spending because they are being cut off on credit, they file bankruptcy, etc. We're currently seeing businesses scaling back on positions, so that's going to have a snowballing effect as it hits those consumers living on credit cards. As more consumers scale back, the economy slows.

GDP growth for at least the last year has been largely to wholly dependent on consumer debt creation. When the consumer debt bubble pops, GDP will take a pounding. This has been inevitable, regardless of who won in November.

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Not once the deportations start.

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What percentage of homes do you think are built by illegal immigrants? I'm 1000% in favor of fixing the shite Biden caused with their immigration policies. But you're kidding yourself if you think that getting rid of a large population of the construction workforce is going to bring down home prices.

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But Ive also noticed realtors are refusing to significantly lower prices

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Of course not.

Everyone is in debt lol. The realtor is in debt the person selling is probably in debt so they need every penny from the sales.

Its not a good recipe.

Not to mention if you are just buying the median house at $300K you better be bringing a serious downpayment or you are about to have a $2,500+ house note at the current rates.

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10yr is being kept high

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High?

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There is a pretty major shortage of American housing.

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Theres also a shortage in people being able to afford the houses available which is why they are not moving.

Having a shortage of housing and having a shortage of housing that people can afford are two different things.

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Back in 82 or 83 I bought my first house at 12%. People that think 7% is high would have a stroke if it was 12%. Glad those days are gone at least

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Thats the type of interest rate that make people responsible.

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Mortgage rates haven’t been dropping even with the Fed cutting rates because the 10-year Treasury yield has been unusually stubborn.

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correct

Trumps Tariff has nothing to do with it

The U.S. Treasury Department issues treasury notes, or debt obligations with a maturity date of two, three, five, seven or 10 years. The rates for these treasury notes are fixed at auction and investors receive interest over time..

A rising yield means investors expect stronger economic growth and/or higher inflation which prompts them to demand higher returns.

They are trying to have their cake and eat it too