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Started By
Message
re: U.S. economy shrank 0.3% in the first quarter of 2025
Posted on 4/30/25 at 10:10 am to TigerMan327
Posted on 4/30/25 at 10:10 am to TigerMan327
Imports don’t lower GDP, that even CNBC doesn’t understand that is staggering.
If firms boosted their imports to load up on their inventory, then that would count as Inventory Accumulation, which is included in the Investments category of GDP. The negative hit from imports would thus cancel out with the positive boost to investment, leaving the net impact unchanged.
If GDP fell, it’s because we’re producing less. Not because we’re importing more.
If firms boosted their imports to load up on their inventory, then that would count as Inventory Accumulation, which is included in the Investments category of GDP. The negative hit from imports would thus cancel out with the positive boost to investment, leaving the net impact unchanged.
If GDP fell, it’s because we’re producing less. Not because we’re importing more.
1
Posted on 4/30/25 at 10:14 am to TigerHornII
quote:No they don’t
Massive imports to build inventory count as a negative to GDP.
Part of investment is inventory accumulation. The negative hit from imports cancels out with the positive influence on inventory accumulation, making the net impact of all imports 0.
GDP is gross domestic product. As in the total market value of goods and services produced within a country.
If GDP fell, it’s because we produced less. Not because we imported more.
Posted on 4/30/25 at 10:15 am to TooFyeToFly
quote:
What's really crazy is that today's numbers indicate that our total trade deficit has actually WORSENED since Trump took office.
That would be because companies tried to build inventories ahead of tariffs. Like everything else in the economy, it is dynamic, not static.
Posted on 4/30/25 at 10:16 am to funnystuff
Net Exports effects GDP.
Net exports = Exports - Imports.
Imports do indeed effect GDP from what Dr. Google is telling me
Net exports = Exports - Imports.
Imports do indeed effect GDP from what Dr. Google is telling me
Posted on 4/30/25 at 10:17 am to funnystuff
quote:
quote:
Massive imports to build inventory count as a negative to GDP.
No they don’t
Part of investment is inventory accumulation. The negative hit from imports cancels out with the positive influence on inventory accumulation, making the net impact of all imports 0.
GDP is gross domestic product. As in the total market value of goods and services produced within a country.
If GDP fell, it’s because we produced less. Not because we imported more.
You didn't look at the graphs of how the numbers were computed, did you? Nor do you understand that the numbers are dynamic.
Link to the breakdown from the US Government's Bureau of Economic Analysis
This post was edited on 4/30/25 at 10:28 am
Posted on 4/30/25 at 10:20 am to kywildcatfanone
quote:
short term pain
Jfc you guys have no idea
Posted on 4/30/25 at 10:23 am to RLDSC FAN
So are we moving back to the original definition of a recession and retired the Biden revised rules?
Posted on 4/30/25 at 10:26 am to Big Jim Slade
quote:
So are we moving back to the original definition of a recession and retired the Biden revised rules?
Nah, man. The economy has been doing great since covid! Just ignore the deficit spending and that 100,000 every few seconds increase to our debt.
The economy has been fineeeeee! It wasn’t propped up with waste and fraud no way no how.
Everything is fine
This post was edited on 4/30/25 at 10:27 am
Posted on 4/30/25 at 10:26 am to TigerMan327
quote:
Net Exports effects GDP.
Net exports = Exports - Imports.
Imports do indeed effect GDP from what Dr. Google is telling me
To your point, here is a link to the government's tracking of imports. Note the spike starting in Dec '24 followed by a rapid drop. That drop will continue, regardless of whether tariffs take hold or not, as companies sell down inventories.
This post was edited on 4/30/25 at 10:30 am
Posted on 4/30/25 at 10:27 am to DesScorp
quote:
Gotta clean the wounds before they can heal. That usually stings a bit.
This. Cant have a massive shutdown followed by 4 years of printing money and fabricating the GDP and not expect to get a glaring problem.
Posted on 4/30/25 at 10:30 am to beerJeep
quote:
When a sizable portion of your GDP is governmental waste and fraud, it is going to have some natural corrections when the fraud and corruption takes a hit.
Yeah I really miss all those “jobs” reports that were all gov job growth (like tumor). And growing our economy via money printing and shitty trade.
ETA: lol at the [l]O[w]-T downvoters. I totally forgot I was in the land one notch gayer than the Soccer Board. Carry on, figments.
This post was edited on 4/30/25 at 3:18 pm
Posted on 4/30/25 at 10:31 am to DesScorp
quote:
Gotta clean the wounds before they can heal. That usually stings a bit.
We've always been at war with Eurasia.
Posted on 4/30/25 at 10:33 am to kywildcatfanone
quote:
No idea how reasonable people don't understand this.
some people went to college and studied economics.
Posted on 4/30/25 at 10:35 am to TooFyeToFly
Wow what a moron. Please explaining this to us BUT include the last four years numbers. Adjusted numbers that is not the fake ones put out for media
Posted on 4/30/25 at 10:36 am to TigerHornII
He sure didn’t. Don’t you love it when the dolts pop off after reading an article almost always written by a poli sci major.
Posted on 4/30/25 at 10:40 am to RLDSC FAN
We need a recession to correct course, that’s why I voted for Trump to improve the economy in 2024.
- Jeff, Prarieville, 54
- Jeff, Prarieville, 54
Posted on 4/30/25 at 10:46 am to TigerMan327
And Investment = Business Investment + Residential Investment + Inventory Investment
Google is telling you wrong. This economist is telling you that the negative GDP impact from growing imports is offset by the positive GDP impact from other areas like inventory accumulation. By design. The whole point of putting imports into the GDP equation with a negative component is to cancel out the other positive impacts that would otherwise inappropriately materialize.
So for example, if you buy a toy made in China, that would add $20 to GDP through the consumption category. You are consuming a $20 toy. However, GDP is, by definition, Gross Domestic Product. Product meaning production. So we don’t want that toy to count as US GDP, as it was not produced in the US. So we subtract imports from the equation so that the positive shock to consumption cancels against the negative shock to imports, leaving total GDP unchanged.
Same idea for inventory buildup on imports. If a housing company buys a bunch of lumber from Canada to put into their inventory, that adds to GDP in the investment category. Because inventory investment is part of total investment, But since the lumber wasn’t produced in the US, we don’t want it in GDP. After all, the D stands for Domestic. As in, made in this country. So we use the negative import category to offset the boost to investment that would otherwise artificially inflate the true value for the gross domestic production.
The entire point of the import category is to offset purchases of goods made in other countries that are incorrectly adding to the other elements of GDP. Meaning the net effect of an import on GDP is zero.
Google is telling you wrong. This economist is telling you that the negative GDP impact from growing imports is offset by the positive GDP impact from other areas like inventory accumulation. By design. The whole point of putting imports into the GDP equation with a negative component is to cancel out the other positive impacts that would otherwise inappropriately materialize.
So for example, if you buy a toy made in China, that would add $20 to GDP through the consumption category. You are consuming a $20 toy. However, GDP is, by definition, Gross Domestic Product. Product meaning production. So we don’t want that toy to count as US GDP, as it was not produced in the US. So we subtract imports from the equation so that the positive shock to consumption cancels against the negative shock to imports, leaving total GDP unchanged.
Same idea for inventory buildup on imports. If a housing company buys a bunch of lumber from Canada to put into their inventory, that adds to GDP in the investment category. Because inventory investment is part of total investment, But since the lumber wasn’t produced in the US, we don’t want it in GDP. After all, the D stands for Domestic. As in, made in this country. So we use the negative import category to offset the boost to investment that would otherwise artificially inflate the true value for the gross domestic production.
The entire point of the import category is to offset purchases of goods made in other countries that are incorrectly adding to the other elements of GDP. Meaning the net effect of an import on GDP is zero.
This post was edited on 4/30/25 at 10:53 am
Posted on 4/30/25 at 10:48 am to TigerHornII
I’m a professional economist. Y’all don’t understand the variable you are talking about. This is the Dunning Kruger Effect in action. You don’t know enough about GDP to know what you don’t know.
See my other reply immediately prior to this one.
See my other reply immediately prior to this one.
This post was edited on 4/30/25 at 10:49 am
Posted on 4/30/25 at 11:05 am to Sweep Da Leg
Read two posts below your reply
Posted on 4/30/25 at 11:08 am to Sweep Da Leg
quote:
Adjusted numbers that is not the fake ones put out for media
Yall really are at war with facts and data huh?
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