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Ultimately, does the recent uptick in crime affect the long-term real estate market in BR

Posted on 12/30/17 at 3:45 pm
Posted by Paul Allen
Montauk, NY
Member since Nov 2007
78717 posts
Posted on 12/30/17 at 3:45 pm
I’m speaking of the perennial quality neighborhoods across the city, “non-hood”. With the recent rash of violence do you feel the long-term real estate market is contracting yielding deteriorating prices, or do you feel it’ll be unscathed and prices will hold steady?

Case in point, New Orleans real estate seems to be steady, if not ascending, and they have dealt with crime for years now.
Posted by TigerBait2008
Boulder,CO
Member since Jun 2008
40497 posts
Posted on 12/30/17 at 3:47 pm to
Dumbass
Posted by Croacka
Denham Springs
Member since Dec 2008
61451 posts
Posted on 12/30/17 at 3:47 pm to
You sure do freak out about real estate once a week
Posted by jdeval1
Member since Dec 2009
7525 posts
Posted on 12/30/17 at 3:47 pm to
I don't see how it can help. BR isn't a draw for some outsiders like Nola is.
Posted by Anonymous95
Member since Sep 2014
2101 posts
Posted on 12/30/17 at 3:47 pm to
How can it not? There’s no world where it doesn’t hurt it.
Posted by Rize
Spring Texas
Member since Sep 2011
19853 posts
Posted on 12/30/17 at 3:47 pm to
Why do you care? Aren’t you jet settin down in Boca Raton?
This post was edited on 12/30/17 at 3:48 pm
Posted by Puck82
Baton Rouge
Member since Mar 2009
23951 posts
Posted on 12/30/17 at 3:52 pm to
The only areas that won’t truly be affected are the very high dollar areas.
Posted by Paul Allen
Montauk, NY
Member since Nov 2007
78717 posts
Posted on 12/30/17 at 3:54 pm to
I’ve got several rentals across the metro BR area. Life is grand in Boca though.
Posted by kingbob
Sorrento, LA
Member since Nov 2010
71223 posts
Posted on 12/30/17 at 3:55 pm to
quote:

I’m speaking of the perennial quality neighborhoods across the city, “non-hood”. With the recent rash of violence do you feel the long-term real estate market is contracting yielding deteriorating prices, or do you feel it’ll be unscathed and prices will hold steady?


Very little of the violence has spilled over into the nice neighborhoods of the city (Garden District, Southdowns, Capital Heights, Goodwood, Bocage, Tara, Inniswald, Shenandoah, Highland, etc) any more than usual.

Baton Rouge's main economic drivers (LSU, state agencies, Exxon, Dow, etc) aren't going anywhere. The plants can't move, and they don't give a flying f&%k about street crime. They have cameras, fences, and armed guards.

The flood devastated the suburbs, so there's not really anywhere else to go. The nicest areas of Baton Rouge were also the areas that did not flood. This means that the city can only decline so much because there are not safe (from flooding), affluent suburbs to flee to. The suburbs are just about maxed out at this point.

I'm bullish on BR property values (at least in areas that did not flood). However, I am very wary of areas like off of O'Neal and Tigerbend that got several feet of water.

So no, BR is not going to go into some sort of Jacksonian or Detroit-esque collapse. Its tax base has nowhere to go.
Posted by TDcline
American Gardens building 11th flor
Member since Aug 2015
9504 posts
Posted on 12/30/17 at 3:56 pm to
Nobody wants to pay for culcha and the financial undertow that comes with it.
Posted by East Coast Band
Member since Nov 2010
67022 posts
Posted on 12/30/17 at 3:58 pm to
IMO, crime is the #1 reason for property values sucking in certain neighborhoods.
Posted by ellesssuuu
Baton Rouge
Member since Mar 2016
3194 posts
Posted on 12/30/17 at 4:00 pm to
I agree with u but those areas will get more and more expensive. Questionable areas like O’Neal, Tiger Bend, Sherwood Forest, Coursey will continue to get worse. More white flight to Ascension and LP.
Posted by Paul Allen
Montauk, NY
Member since Nov 2007
78717 posts
Posted on 12/30/17 at 4:00 pm to
quote:

Its tax base has nowhere to go.


Texas or any other state aside from LA
Posted by ThatMakesSense
Fort Lauderdale
Member since Aug 2015
15281 posts
Posted on 12/30/17 at 4:02 pm to
House Hunters ever go to BR??

Always loved when they showed them the first house, couple LOVES IT, then they say it's 200k above their budget.
Posted by In The Know
City of St George, La
Member since Jan 2005
6795 posts
Posted on 12/30/17 at 4:02 pm to
No it doesn’t. My friend is a realtor and had his best year ever. I recently sold my house off Bluebonnet for $430k after buying it for $350k seven years ago. It’s a sellers market in BR and has been for years.
Posted by kingbob
Sorrento, LA
Member since Nov 2010
71223 posts
Posted on 12/30/17 at 4:02 pm to
quote:

I agree with u but those areas will get more and more expensive. Questionable areas like O’Neal, Tiger Bend, Sherwood Forest, Coursey will continue to get worse. More white flight to Ascension and LP.


White flight can only happen if there is affordable real estate to flee to. AP and parts of LP are starting to fill up. The prices for real estate in AP keeps going up and up too. It's starting to get unaffordable to buy in areas of AP and LP that didn't flood, and even many areas that did are MORE expensive than those fringe areas you're discussing, and not because housing prices are going down anywhere.
Posted by Pintail
Member since Nov 2011
12161 posts
Posted on 12/30/17 at 4:03 pm to
quote:

Very little of the violence has spilled over into the nice neighborhoods of the city (Garden District, Southdowns, Capital Heights, Goodwood, Bocage, Tara, Inniswald, Shenandoah, Highland, etc) any more than usual.


A shooting just happened less than a half mile from Waldon/Kenilworth. The trash is moving into those areas.
Posted by biglego
San Francisco
Member since Nov 2007
85581 posts
Posted on 12/30/17 at 4:07 pm to
quote:

I recently sold my house off Bluebonnet for $430k after buying it for $350k seven years ago.

People pay that much for a house in Baton Rouge?
Posted by kingbob
Sorrento, LA
Member since Nov 2010
71223 posts
Posted on 12/30/17 at 4:11 pm to
quote:

Texas or any other state aside from LA


I'm talking about industry. Exxon may elect to expand in Corpus Christi rather than North Baton Rouge, but Exxon in North Baton Rouge isn't leaving. Will these plants stop needing maintenance? All of those construction baws are still needed to do that, so Cajun, ISC, Turner, Jacobs, etc aren't going anywhere.

The state government (the state's largest employer) isn't collapsing any time soon. They will continue to employ tens of thousands of people around Baton Rouge.

LSU isn't going anywhere. They will still employ hundreds of professors. LSU also fuels hundreds of businesses around campus that cater to students. It drives real estate prices up and up for rentals to students.

The hospitals aren't going anywhere. In fact, they are building a new Children's Hospital and just finished building another ER. They will still employ thousands of doctors, nurses, and staff.

Are all of those lawyers who service those industries going to disappear? Someone has to do the work, and it can't all be done in New Orleans or Houston.

If EBR's government would just get out of the way, and JBE would stop trying to raise taxes twice a year, BR would be primed for continuing the boom Kip started.

You want to see a city in decline? You should have seen BR before Kip took over. It looked like a Scooby-Doo ghost town for the most part. Now, those abandoned buildings are luxury hotels. Downtown is a destination for nightlife and dining. We have more festivals than ever, more cultural events, more small businesses, etc. Broome is threatening to set things back, but Baton Rouge still has some serious economic inertia.
Posted by kingbob
Sorrento, LA
Member since Nov 2010
71223 posts
Posted on 12/30/17 at 4:13 pm to
What you mean is a shooting happened a block off of Staring Lane, which has been a bad neighborhood for over 20 years.
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