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re: TS Jerry, TS Karen & More Areas to Watch - Peak Season
Posted on 9/12/19 at 7:32 am to DawgCountry
Posted on 9/12/19 at 7:32 am to DawgCountry
Latest GFS has 94 and 96 developing but turning out to sea. Has a TS spinning up in the Caribbean as well and crossing Cuba toward south Florida. And about 3 waves coming off Africa one after the other
0
Posted on 9/12/19 at 7:54 am to DawgCountry
Not often you see that dramatic of a shift in guidance.
Euro appears to shift the starting position to the ENE of previous and this finds a path up the east coast (operational pulling a Sandy into Jersey) and ensambles are on board to.
This has implications for where 96 L ends up too.
The GFS is way to the west but also doesn't really develop it.
Euro appears to shift the starting position to the ENE of previous and this finds a path up the east coast (operational pulling a Sandy into Jersey) and ensambles are on board to.
This has implications for where 96 L ends up too.
The GFS is way to the west but also doesn't really develop it.
Posted on 9/12/19 at 8:20 am to Duke
quote:
This has implications for where 96 L ends up too.
How exactly??
Posted on 9/12/19 at 9:16 am to Duke
quote:
Not often you see that dramatic of a shift in guidance.
Euro appears to shift the starting position to the ENE of previous and this finds a path up the east coast (operational pulling a Sandy into Jersey) and ensambles are on board to.
This has implications for where 96 L ends up too.
The GFS is way to the west but also doesn't really develop it.
Euro seemed to jump towards your thinking from last night and consolidates the system off to the NE. The 12z run from yesterday had the system stay elongated and disorganized up until landfall in SE FL. The 00z shows a bit less shear over the system, the mid level vort is able to get better organized and eventually consolidates the LLC under it. The big changes are at the surface and the track of the mid level vort doesn't change that much from 12z to 00z.
This does a couple of things, it gets the system away from the ULL and it keeps it over water. It doesn't look too bad for the Bahamas with the system being a developing TS but any kind of weather delay is bad for recovery. Beyond that, the system does appear to open a door for future 96L to curve NE. Overall, this would be a good turn of events for the Gulf.
Posted on 9/12/19 at 9:16 am to DawgCountry
So interesting thing here is some models push it west and euro east. It seems the trend is the weaker the system is the more west it goes and the stronger it is the more eastward shift it has.
That's a dramatic difference between the model. That's like 600+ miles difference. It should be noted they struggle with these systems all the time so it wouldn't be shocking if it shifts again until something forms then they'll get a better idea.
The trend I've noticed in the models is weak = west stronger system = eastward shift.
That's a dramatic difference between the model. That's like 600+ miles difference. It should be noted they struggle with these systems all the time so it wouldn't be shocking if it shifts again until something forms then they'll get a better idea.
The trend I've noticed in the models is weak = west stronger system = eastward shift.
Posted on 9/12/19 at 9:28 am to deuce985
quote:
The trend I've noticed in the models is weak = west stronger system = eastward shift.
It's a position thing. The west models have it stuck with the upper low and missing the weakness to go N. The east ones have it getting away from the upper low and getting the weakness as rds explained.
Posted on 9/12/19 at 9:32 am to Duke
It's odd to see such a big shift on the models like that. It always seems like the consistency goes way down before it forms into anything. That's a pretty big spread of disagreement across the computer models.
Posted on 9/12/19 at 9:43 am to deuce985
quote:
It's odd to see such a big shift on the models like that. It always seems like the consistency goes way down before it forms into anything. That's a pretty big spread of disagreement across the computer models.
Weak systems that aren't vertically stacked, getting sheared, and without a clear center of circulation are fickle. It looks like the Euro wants to have the low level center reform near the mid level, which changes the starting point to the ENE. Gets it away from the heavier shear and better situated to feel the push more north.
So you get this huge split because of the models don't agree with the initial position.
Posted on 9/12/19 at 10:32 am to rds dc
12z GFS is running. It will be interesting to see if it jumps towards the Euro or holds steady. The 06z GEFS showed no signs of shifting.
Posted on 9/12/19 at 10:35 am to rds dc
We could use a good drenching rain in Cenla, tbh.
Posted on 9/12/19 at 11:10 am to Jim Rockford
I'd be happy with a few days of fricking cloud cover.
Posted on 9/12/19 at 11:12 am to Not Cooper
I approve this message.
Posted on 9/12/19 at 11:21 am to rds dc
Looks like the 12z GFS says this thing does nothing much, moves into the Gulf and heads into the panhandle. I believe that’s a shift to the East.
This post was edited on 9/12/19 at 11:22 am
Posted on 9/12/19 at 11:23 am to rds dc
12z GFS doesn't fold to the 00z Euro.
00z Euro
Usually, a blend of the two weighted towards the Euro is a good guess. What makes this tricky is any westward shift in the Euro has it interacting with land and limiting development. Tough call for the NHC coming up. A system that stays offshore will potentially be stronger and pose a risk to the EC.
00z Euro
Usually, a blend of the two weighted towards the Euro is a good guess. What makes this tricky is any westward shift in the Euro has it interacting with land and limiting development. Tough call for the NHC coming up. A system that stays offshore will potentially be stronger and pose a risk to the EC.
This post was edited on 9/12/19 at 11:24 am
Posted on 9/12/19 at 11:38 am to rds dc
The reason for all the uncertainty is because mother nature wants to take it into FL and up the east coast BUT my sometimes shitty impeccable luck wants to drag it into gulf shores since I have a guys fishing trip planned for mid next week 
Posted on 9/12/19 at 11:42 am to NOLAGT
God doesn't want you to eat his fish it seems.
Posted on 9/12/19 at 12:00 pm to PsychTiger
I'm ok with skunking on his fish if he lets me drink his bourbon in peace on da beach 
Posted on 9/12/19 at 12:08 pm to NOLAGT
Latest GFS also has the next couple Atlantic long track storms all curving out to sea.
If that holds, minus something spinning up in the Caribbean, we might be getting close to not having to worry about gulf threats
If that holds, minus something spinning up in the Caribbean, we might be getting close to not having to worry about gulf threats
Posted on 9/12/19 at 12:14 pm to deltaland
Shhh, don’t wake the baby
Posted on 9/12/19 at 12:27 pm to deltaland
quote:
If that holds, minus something spinning up in the Caribbean, we might be getting close to not having to worry about gulf threats
I always breath a sigh of relief when first cold front comes. Makes it difficult for anything forming east of FL to make it here.
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