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Started By
Message
re: TS Elsa - Heading off to the NE, Then Shut the Tropics Down for a Couple of Weeks
Posted on 7/2/21 at 2:41 pm to KOA
Posted on 7/2/21 at 2:41 pm to KOA
quote:
So Louisiana in the clear nice
And just like that, Lake Charles zapped out of existence and off the map
This post was edited on 7/2/21 at 2:46 pm
0
Posted on 7/2/21 at 2:41 pm to doubleb
quote:
So the stronger it gets means a more western course still?
That’s not good.
That rule of thumb is relative to the possible tracks. It means a stronger storm is more likely to track to the Western side of model guidance as opposed to the Eastern side. It isn't likely to have wild swings like you are thinking.
Posted on 7/2/21 at 2:43 pm to rds dc
quote:another square!
Also, this meets the 24hr criteria for RI.
Posted on 7/2/21 at 2:44 pm to KOA
Except for your house. Gone.
Posted on 7/2/21 at 2:45 pm to LegendInMyMind
quote:
That rule of thumb is relative to the possible tracks. It means a stronger storm is more likely to track to the Western side of model guidance as opposed to the Eastern side. It isn't likely to have wild swings like you are thinking.
I thought so too, but Yesterday the guys here were saying with this storm it’s different because of a different pattern.
This post was edited on 7/2/21 at 2:46 pm
Posted on 7/2/21 at 2:48 pm to doubleb
Don't see a polar outflow channel yet.
Posted on 7/2/21 at 2:53 pm to Jim Rockford
quote:
polar outflow channel
It was good back in the early 2000s, but now it is nothing but reruns and cheap infomercials.
Posted on 7/2/21 at 2:54 pm to LegendInMyMind
I laughed way too hard at that... probably a sign that I need get this 3-5 day weekend started 
Posted on 7/2/21 at 2:59 pm to doubleb
That's typically the rule of thumb but in this case a stronger storm would feel more of a west push. At least in the short term.
Posted on 7/2/21 at 3:03 pm to VABuckeye
quote:I've got a friend in the process of moving to Vero Beach. Have fun in Florida, guys!
Moved to Naples, FL yesterday. Oh boy.
And good luck, seriously. Our tornados are bad, but just drive-bys. You guys get the area denial.
Posted on 7/2/21 at 4:20 pm to tokenBoiler
Posted on 7/2/21 at 4:44 pm to Bobby OG Johnson
See the no wind at 700 mb but then it's blowing about 40 kts down at the surface? So this circulation has a tilt between the mid and low levels. This is expected with the forward speed and is why very few saw this turning into a hurricane so soon.
Posted on 7/2/21 at 5:03 pm to Duke
Weakening trend continues on 18z GFS. It looks to be a little North of last run, too. If that keeps up, it could end up tracking more along Cuba instead of straight across it, which would probably take a toll on it.
It crosses Cuba in a stretched out mess, and for the first time on 850mb Vorticity it isn't tightly wrapped. It looks to be split in two areas of rotation. Then, on its approach to FL it tries to get its act back together and bundle back up, but doesn't get much stronger at ~1003mb at landfall in roughly the same spot.
It crosses Cuba in a stretched out mess, and for the first time on 850mb Vorticity it isn't tightly wrapped. It looks to be split in two areas of rotation. Then, on its approach to FL it tries to get its act back together and bundle back up, but doesn't get much stronger at ~1003mb at landfall in roughly the same spot.
This post was edited on 7/2/21 at 5:16 pm
Posted on 7/2/21 at 5:11 pm to LegendInMyMind
quote:
it could end up tracking more across Cuba which would probably take a toll on it.
Depends on which part. The mountains can tear it up. It can cross the flat part eithout much trouble.
Posted on 7/2/21 at 5:14 pm to Jim Rockford
quote:
Depends on which part. The mountains can tear it up. It can cross the flat part eithout much trouble.
True, but with a weaker storm anyway, and with what is already against it, any significant land interaction will hurt it. A large part of the GFS keeping it as strong as it has is from the fact that it avoids most land by going between Haiti/DR and Jamaica. It has also been tracking it straight across Cuba, with this run being more along a portion of Cuba.
This post was edited on 7/2/21 at 5:16 pm
Posted on 7/2/21 at 5:17 pm to LegendInMyMind
This run also takes it much further inland, instead of riding the coast.
Posted on 7/2/21 at 5:48 pm to LegendInMyMind
I thought the cone was supposed to be different this year. Looks the ssme to me.
Posted on 7/2/21 at 6:31 pm to Jim Rockford
quote:
National Weather Service
@NWS
Don't mess with lightning. It can strike up to 10mi from storms; well before rain starts or well after it ends. Go inside at the first sign of lightning and stay for at least 30min after the last rumble of thunder or flash of lightning. Bring the #4thOfJuly fun indoors with you!
Twitter video with sound
Posted on 7/2/21 at 6:37 pm to Bobby OG Johnson
What is it about lightning that makes you watch the video over and over again? I've seen that one before, but it still does that to me.
Posted on 7/2/21 at 6:38 pm to Bobby OG Johnson
Made one to include the end of it with the cat.
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