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Posted on 6/23/21 at 2:39 pm to The Boat
quote:
That first wave is the same one that nobody started a thread on and got a lot of hate for
The 1st wave never really had a chance and the NHC was being generous when they briefly bumped it to 30%. Also, the phantom system the GFS kept trying to spin up was unrelated. Probably more related to how the GFS was handling the MJO.
The 2nd wave is more intriguing with SST not really being favorable but some other factors are favorable for development.
Posted on 6/23/21 at 2:42 pm to rds dc
Will there be waves in Gulf Shores?
Posted on 6/23/21 at 2:59 pm to rds dc
Checks date...
That warm patch near the equator helping some waves kick off early?
I'm assuming it's more of a wind shear lessener kind of thing, since they're not actually getting going in the warm patch.
That warm patch near the equator helping some waves kick off early?
I'm assuming it's more of a wind shear lessener kind of thing, since they're not actually getting going in the warm patch.
This post was edited on 6/23/21 at 3:00 pm
Posted on 6/23/21 at 3:06 pm to rds dc
Posted on 6/23/21 at 3:26 pm to rds dc
Im having some folks over for dinner Friday night.
Should I cancel or will we be ok?
j\k
Should I cancel or will we be ok?
j\kPosted on 6/23/21 at 4:36 pm to rds dc
In all seriousness, this is the type of output we would expect to see in late August or September and not for the 4th of July weekend.
Posted on 6/23/21 at 4:41 pm to rds dc
Huh.
Well...
frick all that.
I'm going to have to do some reading concerning these early season waves because this is the second robust one already this year. Odder still is maintaining good enough conditions in the MDR and on to keep it alive and for the members who miss the islands flourishing.
Well...
frick all that.
I'm going to have to do some reading concerning these early season waves because this is the second robust one already this year. Odder still is maintaining good enough conditions in the MDR and on to keep it alive and for the members who miss the islands flourishing.
Posted on 6/23/21 at 4:50 pm to Duke
quote:
I'm going to have to do some reading concerning these early season waves because this is the second robust one already this year. Odder still is maintaining good enough conditions in the MDR and on to keep it alive and for the members who miss the islands flourishing.
I think this might be the start of a bad trend for this season. There are some signs that intraseasonal forcing might put a cap on things later in July but the overall large scale setup for the season looks to favor strong AEW through peak season.
This post was edited on 6/23/21 at 4:55 pm
Posted on 6/23/21 at 4:57 pm to rds dc
Nothingburger
Posted on 6/23/21 at 4:59 pm to theunknownknight
Again ...
Posted on 6/23/21 at 5:00 pm to rds dc
quote:
I'm going to have to do some reading concerning these early season waves because this is the second robust one already this year. Odder still is maintaining good enough conditions in the MDR and on to keep it alive and for the members who miss the islands flourishing.
quote:
I think this might be the start of a bad trend for this season. There are some signs that intraseasonal forcing might put a cap on things later in July but the overall large scale setup for the season looks to favor strong AEW through peak season.
Posted on 6/23/21 at 5:01 pm to rds dc
quote:
I think this might be the start of a bad trend for this season.
Yup. Me too.
quote:
There are some signs that interseasonal forcing might put a cap on things later in July but the overall large scale setup for the season looks to favor strong AEW through peak season.
A lot of eastern starters might not be the worse thing since there are more opportunities to escape OTS. Though, the general height pattern on the latest CFS weeklies and monthies doesn't show a lot of weakness in the ATL ridge going forward.
The later July lull shows up pretty well with shear getting a little aggressive in the Caribbean and even out east into the open Atlantic.
Posted on 6/23/21 at 5:04 pm to Duke
Posted on 6/23/21 at 5:07 pm to Duke
quote:
A lot of eastern starters might not be the worse thing since there are more opportunities to escape OTS.
If SST don't warm significantly in July then waves will struggle to develop in the MDR, resulting in more US threats. I would like to see a flame thrower across the MDR this season with a parade of picturesque Cat 5s harmlessly roaming the open Atlantic on their journey OTS.
Posted on 6/23/21 at 5:07 pm to theunknownknight
quote:
Nothingburger
That's the safe bet for this time of year.
Posted on 6/23/21 at 5:08 pm to rds dc
Cape Verde storm in June. That sounds about right....
Posted on 6/23/21 at 5:09 pm to rds dc
quote:
rds dc
quote:
I think this might be the start of a bad trend for this season. There are some signs that intraseasonal forcing might put a cap on things later in July but the overall large scale setup for the season looks to favor strong AEW through peak season.
quote:
Duke
quote:
Yup. Me too.
Posted on 6/23/21 at 5:11 pm to rds dc
quote:
I think this might be the start of a bad trend for this season. There are some signs that intraseasonal forcing might put a cap on things later in July but the overall large scale setup for the season looks to favor strong AEW through peak season.
We're going to have alot of lift over Africa during the heart of the season which is going to just be a tropical wave producing factory.
Posted on 6/23/21 at 5:13 pm to rds dc
quote:
If SST don't warm significantly in July then waves will struggle to develop in the MDR, resulting in more US threats.
Good point. I'm hoping we really only need to get it to warm enough to at least develop a closed storm and take advantage of the warmer water closer to the islands, enough to get north of them more often than not.
Ridge baby ridge over the MDR.
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