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re: TS Elsa - Heading off to the NE, Then Shut the Tropics Down for a Couple of Weeks

Posted on 7/1/21 at 8:36 pm to
Posted by Bullfrog
Running Through the Wet Grass
Member since Jul 2010
60285 posts
Posted on 7/1/21 at 8:36 pm to
quote:

MDR to get nice and hot by August and keep the TUTT
MDR = Miami Dade Region?
TUTT = Tampa Upper Tampa and Tiamiami
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36439 posts
Posted on 7/1/21 at 8:39 pm to
Main Development Region
Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (this makes shear)

The idea being hopefully if there is a parade of waves they could develop early and find a way out to sea more easily.
Posted by goodgrin
Atlanta, GA
Member since Nov 2003
6771 posts
Posted on 7/1/21 at 9:01 pm to
It's just a tropical storm with winds that will top out around 60 mph. Calm the frick down.
Posted by Clockwatcher68
Youngsville
Member since May 2006
7597 posts
Posted on 7/1/21 at 9:37 pm to
quote:

Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough


Bingo!!!
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
21018 posts
Posted on 7/1/21 at 9:39 pm to
00z Early Cycle guidance.



Firing some deep convection tonight but can't really say where the LLC is in relation to the deep convection.

Posted by RummelTiger
Official TD Sauces Club Member
Member since Aug 2004
92791 posts
Posted on 7/1/21 at 9:40 pm to
quote:

Can we get this pinned


Again…

A) Nothing gets stickied until it reaches the Gulf.

B) Generally, only hurricanes get stickied…and usually only Cat 2 and above.
Posted by East Coast Band
Member since Nov 2010
66950 posts
Posted on 7/1/21 at 9:41 pm to
Seems odd that it is forecast to stay together for so long, yet never becomes a hurricane.
Which is fine with me
Posted by Bobby OG Johnson
Member since Apr 2015
32092 posts
Posted on 7/1/21 at 9:44 pm to
quote:

Mike Adcock
@MikeAdcockWx

First recon sortie into Tropical Storm #Elsa scheduled to depart at Friday morning at 3:15 am EDT. WC-130 fix missions will be complemented by P-3 tail doppler radar and G-IV synoptic surveillance missions.
Posted by Bobby OG Johnson
Member since Apr 2015
32092 posts
Posted on 7/1/21 at 9:57 pm to
quote:

National Hurricane Center
@NHC_Atlantic

Tropical Storm #Elsa Advisory 6: Elsa a Little Stronger. Moving Quickly West-Northwestward Towards the Lesser Antilles.
Posted by TigerNAtux
Louisiana
Member since Dec 2007
18436 posts
Posted on 7/1/21 at 10:00 pm to
A 60 mph storm to the west of SELA would flood the shite out of many, many people.

Same goes for anyone east of it.

Do. Not. Want.
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
71321 posts
Posted on 7/1/21 at 10:03 pm to
It seems to be moving too fast right now to get much organization going.
Posted by Chad504boy
4 posts
Member since Feb 2005
175791 posts
Posted on 7/1/21 at 10:06 pm to
quote:

A 60 mph storm to the west of SELA would flood the shite out of many, many people.

Same goes for anyone east of it.

Do. Not. Want.


Holy drama
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36439 posts
Posted on 7/1/21 at 10:08 pm to
Quick derail, clouds made for a pretty cool sunset here.









Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
71321 posts
Posted on 7/1/21 at 10:17 pm to
Good stuff.

I took this one the other day. Really wish I had the camera with me.
Posted by Bobby OG Johnson
Member since Apr 2015
32092 posts
Posted on 7/1/21 at 10:36 pm to
quote:

Quick derail


Great shots!


The only thing new I have is this retarded squirrel.


Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36439 posts
Posted on 7/1/21 at 10:39 pm to
Probably should be the hurricane thread mascot imo
Posted by Bobby OG Johnson
Member since Apr 2015
32092 posts
Posted on 7/1/21 at 10:44 pm to
Posted by Bobby OG Johnson
Member since Apr 2015
32092 posts
Posted on 7/1/21 at 10:51 pm to
Posted by starkvingrad
Florida
Member since Apr 2021
5837 posts
Posted on 7/1/21 at 10:54 pm to
Long-track tropical forecast with Florida in the cone?

It's that time of year again! Would you look at that, it's July 1st.
Posted by Dlab2013
Pineville, Luzianna
Member since Jun 2013
9266 posts
Posted on 7/1/21 at 10:58 pm to
Looks like Florida might get some rain......
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