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Started By
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re: TS Arthur - TS Warning for SE Texas and SW Louisiana - Flood Threat
Posted on 6/17/26 at 12:19 pm to wallowinit
Posted on 6/17/26 at 12:19 pm to wallowinit
1
Posted on 6/17/26 at 12:25 pm to Zapps4Life
quote:
Winds at Galveston quite impressive right now (gust 65 mph)
damn. my 12 hour chartered deep sea fishing trip tomorrow out of Galveston just got cancelled. “rough seas”
Posted on 6/17/26 at 12:34 pm to wallowinit
quote:
I understand what you’re saying, but I just saw a meteorologist point out that there was a forecast for 19 to 20 inches in Oldfield Louisiana
Surely you misunderstood him. He was probably referring to a model run.
Posted on 6/17/26 at 12:39 pm to TDsngumbo
Looked up Oldfield, LA on google maps and it shows it’s close to Denham Springs.
Posted on 6/17/26 at 12:40 pm to BZ504
quote:
Looked up Oldfield, LA on google maps and it shows it’s close to Denham Springs.
Yea some of the models I've seen shared do seem to be painting a bullseye over the general Baton Rouge area for the possibility of some eyebrow raising totals. Meanwhile actual forecasts are indicating a general possibility of 5-7 inches over the same area.
One thing that perplexes me is this, though:
Even though the models are painting massive totals over this area, the future radar model runs seem to show just a small area of heavy rain that comes in and out quickly. It doesn't seem to line up with each other.
This post was edited on 6/17/26 at 12:42 pm
Posted on 6/17/26 at 12:41 pm to cgrand
No video from Levi no care
Posted on 6/17/26 at 12:53 pm to BottomlandBrew
quote:
I've been away from LA for 15 years. Is the Comite diversion done
Not until mid 2028 at the earliest. Still have 5 contracts with active construction going.
Posted on 6/17/26 at 1:12 pm to TDsngumbo
Any additional rain in Pearl River county will be problematic. We have close to or over 30” of rain at my place in the last month. Luckily we drain fast but all the creeks are still rising from yesterday’s downpours.
Posted on 6/17/26 at 1:20 pm to friendlyobservation
quote:
Why is this a named storm? It looks like a massive rainmaker right now.
It damn sure ain’t ripping no sword out of a rock
Posted on 6/17/26 at 1:26 pm to Klark Kent
The strong wing is extremely localized. I’m driving through the suck zone along I-10 today and it’s just a decent breeze right now.
Posted on 6/17/26 at 1:31 pm to friendlyobservation
quote:
Why is this a named storm? It looks like a massive rainmaker right now.
Good thing it skipped offshore for a few hours. They would’ve had a hard time justifying this one
Posted on 6/17/26 at 1:43 pm to TDsngumbo
Perhaps and the model run forecast 19 to 20 inches.
That is certainly not out of the realm of possibilities from a system like this, no?
That is certainly not out of the realm of possibilities from a system like this, no?
Posted on 6/17/26 at 1:50 pm to friendlyobservation
quote:
Why is this a named storm?
Insurance companies need that named storm deductible in case anyone gets some tornado damage
Posted on 6/17/26 at 2:02 pm to The Boat
I am driving to Houston on Friday. Will this shite be over by then?
Posted on 6/17/26 at 2:09 pm to Disco Ball
I know the main area of circulation is right on the coast but if you look at the infrared model on tropical tidbits it almost looks like that big blob to the south has its own center.
Posted on 6/17/26 at 2:11 pm to tigersownall
quote:
but if you look at the infrared model on tropical tidbits it almost looks like that big blob to the south has its own center.
Mid level center/circulation Western shear is decoupling the lower level circulation (near the coast) and the blob.
This post was edited on 6/17/26 at 2:12 pm
Posted on 6/17/26 at 2:15 pm to tigersownall
quote:
I know the main area of circulation is right on the coast but if you look at the infrared model on tropical tidbits it almost looks like that big blob to the south has its own center.
Bunch of low level circulations with a mid-level one not stacked.
Basically this thing is a messy rainmaker.
Posted on 6/17/26 at 2:37 pm to rds dc
whoever gets a training rain band is going to get fricked
there could be a massive gradient on rainfall totals somewhere
there could be a massive gradient on rainfall totals somewhere
Posted on 6/17/26 at 2:39 pm to DVinBR
quote:
whoever gets a training rain band is going to get fricked
there could be a massive gradient on rainfall totals somewhere
it's been really sunny out here in Biloxi area and hot/humid. I'm expecting a deluge sometime overnight into tomorrow. The energy has to be there with these conditions right now
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