re: Tropical Storm Rafael - Spinning Down in Gulf

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That’s just a reminder of how many stupid models there are

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Yep. Earlier in the week they had this headed towards southern Texas. Even our local weather folks said no threat to Louisiana.

frick, supposed to leave out of NOLA on a 4 night cruise Thursday.

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I don't think so.

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Here. We. Geaux.

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frick, supposed to leave out of NOLA on a 4 night cruise Thursday.

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A hurricane is the least of your problems

Going to Cancun 11/23. Live in Houston. Happy it will not be an issue.

Are you fricking serious?

Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
1000 PM EST Sun Nov 03 2024

The convective structure of the system in the south-central
Caribbean Sea has not become any better organized this evening.
Current shower and thunderstorm activity is clustered in two regions
to the south and northeast of the estimated center. The center
itself remains quite broad and lacks distinct banding features, as
seen on an earlier GMI microwave pass at 2219 UTC. Given the lack of
improvement from this afternoon, the system remains a Potential
Tropical Cyclone (PTC), with an initial intensity at 30 kt. An Air
Force Reconnaissance Aircraft is in route to sample the system
tonight, and we should soon also receive an ASCAT-B scatterometer
pass to provide more information on its structure and intensity.

My best guess is that the system continues to move slowly northward
this evening, with a current motion a fairly uncertain 360/5 kt.
Over the next couple of days, a large mid-level ridge currently
parked north of the system off the southeastern U.S. coast should
shift a little eastward and build farther southeastward towards
Hispaniola. The result of this synoptic pattern should cause PTC18
to turn northwestward and gradually accelerate as it moves into the
northwestern Caribbean. This motion should bring the system near
Jamaica by Monday evening and the Cayman Islands on Tuesday evening.
This northwestward track should continue, likely bringing the system
over Cuba and ultimately into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico in 72
h. After that time, the track guidance begins to diverge, with
notable ECMWF ensemble cross-track spread in the
southwest-to-northeast direction over the Gulf of Mexico. Some of
this track spread is related to how fast a mid-latitude cutoff low
over the four corners region of the U.S. ejects out into the central
Plains. This feature will play a role in how much the mid-level
ridging ahead of the system becomes eroded when it emerges into the
Gulf of Mexico. The track guidance is a little slower compared to
the previous cycle, and the NHC track forecast is also a little bit
slower this advisory, while nudged just a hair to the west of the
prior forecast at the end of period. However, forecast confidence on
the track in the 96-h and 120-h time-frame is lower than usual.

The intensity forecast is also uncertain, because how much the
system is able to intensify will be determined by its evolving
structure over the next couple of days. Environmental conditions in
the northwestern Caribbean are forecast to be quite favorable, with
SHIPS guidance indicating vertical wind shear remaining 10 kt or
lower while traversing very warm 29-30 C sea-surface temperatures
for the next 48-60 h. Such an environment could favor rapid
intensification, as some of the regional-hurricane model guidance
aids were suggesting earlier today. However, this evolution depends
on when or if the system is able to develop an inner-core, and the
current poor structure argues against substantial development in the
short-term. Assuming the system does ultimately develop a better
aligned vortex, more significant intensification is forecast in the
24-60 h time frame, and the NHC intensity forecast still shows the
system becoming a hurricane in the northwestern Caribbean. After
PTC18 crosses Cuba into the Gulf of Mexico, the forecast environment becomes less favorable, with increasing southwesterly shear and decreasing sea-surface temperatures, though this environment is quite dependent on the forecast track. The latest NHC intensity forecast is quite similar to the prior one, splitting the difference between the more aggressive hurricane-regional models, and more subdued global model and statistical-dynamical aids.

Pretty good one.

So.....there are a few posters here who are supposed to be the experts on these things, but they have completely disappeared. They apparently don't know much.

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So.....there are a few posters here who are supposed to be the experts on these things, but they have completely disappeared. They apparently don't know much

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Then take the 10 seconds to go search the Internet for the tons of people who probably have. You can try to figure out who has legit info, and who is dropping fear porn for views. Are you one of those people who have to be spoon fed everything immediately when you want it, and if you don't get it you cry like a bitch?

When RDS or Duke have info they think is important to share, I'm sure they will share it.