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re: Tropical Storm Nicholas - Flash Flood Watch for South Louisiana

Posted on 9/13/21 at 2:16 pm to
Posted by Cosmo
glassman's guest house
Member since Oct 2003
131579 posts
Posted on 9/13/21 at 2:16 pm to
They backed way off on totals

Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36494 posts
Posted on 9/13/21 at 2:18 pm to
Lacking organization and a little faster moving.

You love to see it.
Posted by LSUJuice
Back in Houston
Member since Apr 2004
18051 posts
Posted on 9/13/21 at 2:18 pm to
That's a really promising trend.
Posted by Cosmo
glassman's guest house
Member since Oct 2003
131579 posts
Posted on 9/13/21 at 2:19 pm to
quote:

Lacking organization and a little faster moving.

You love to see it.



Storm 2k hates to see it
Posted by Impotent Waffle
Baton Rouge
Member since Sep 2007
10129 posts
Posted on 9/13/21 at 2:20 pm to
Raining its arse off Perkins\College area.
Posted by FCP
Delta State Univ. - Fightin' Okra
Member since Sep 2010
5172 posts
Posted on 9/13/21 at 2:31 pm to
quote:

They backed way off on totals
They keep that little orange blob over St. Helena Parish in every incantation of this thing. Sucks because that's basically me. Actually, it looks like they're keeping heightened rain totals along the entire northshore area.

If they could kindly move that over into land shark territory, that'd be great...
Posted by Capt ST
High Plains
Member since Aug 2011
13673 posts
Posted on 9/13/21 at 2:39 pm to
quote:

Raining its arse off Perkins\College area.


excellent, my crops needed the rain.
Posted by Bestbank Tiger
Premium Member
Member since Jan 2005
80896 posts
Posted on 9/13/21 at 2:54 pm to
quote:

Storm 2k hates to see it


But more than that, I love to see it.
Posted by lsugolfredman
Member since Jun 2005
1941 posts
Posted on 9/13/21 at 2:55 pm to


These forecasted gusts would be shocking to say the least, but it's a function of the increased forward speed. The HRRR model can be a bit spotty at the end of its runs. This is a bit of a concern with leaners and hangers from Ida.
Posted by LSUJuice
Back in Houston
Member since Apr 2004
18051 posts
Posted on 9/13/21 at 2:57 pm to
There was some discussion in the Ida thread about the hrrr (or models in general) being shite with wind gusts.
Posted by Y.A. Tittle
Member since Sep 2003
110957 posts
Posted on 9/13/21 at 2:59 pm to
quote:

quote:
Lacking organization and a little faster moving.

You love to see it.


Storm 2k hates to see it



It looks like it's about to go into rapid intensification!
Posted by lsugolfredman
Member since Jun 2005
1941 posts
Posted on 9/13/21 at 2:59 pm to
quote:

There was some discussion in the Ida thread about the hrrr (or models in general) being shite with wind gusts.


I'd argue they were spot on, especially as the time period was retracted. Also, this run is associated with additional time over water as it makes landfall in LA. Something to watch for.
Posted by Impotent Waffle
Baton Rouge
Member since Sep 2007
10129 posts
Posted on 9/13/21 at 3:03 pm to
quote:

Also, this run is associated with additional time over water as it makes landfall in LA. Something to watch for


Say wha? Can you show that run to us simple folk
Posted by lsugolfredman
Member since Jun 2005
1941 posts
Posted on 9/13/21 at 3:06 pm to
Posted by A Smoke Break
Lafayette
Member since Nov 2018
2175 posts
Posted on 9/13/21 at 3:08 pm to
Rob has everyone on the KATC facebook in a frenzy expecting 10 inches+ in acadiana.

Based off one model run.

Knowing full well this storm is now travelling faster and won't linger around as long.

You hate to see it.
Posted by Cosmo
glassman's guest house
Member since Oct 2003
131579 posts
Posted on 9/13/21 at 3:11 pm to
Rob loves the NAM and HRRR which overdoes everything a bit
Posted by TDTOM
Member since Jan 2021
25893 posts
Posted on 9/13/21 at 3:12 pm to
Wait, so now this thing is coming over Lafayette?
Posted by Chad504boy
4 posts
Member since Feb 2005
179007 posts
Posted on 9/13/21 at 3:12 pm to
quote:

HRRR


Posted by A Smoke Break
Lafayette
Member since Nov 2018
2175 posts
Posted on 9/13/21 at 3:12 pm to
quote:

Rob loves the NAM and HRRR which overdoes everything a bit


That he does.

I switched over to Chris Cozart after I spent 150 dollars on a fricking hotel room for a TS that stayed off shore and missed us on "20 inches of rain" per rob's fantastic hypecasting.

Nice guy, shitty hype man.
Posted by A Smoke Break
Lafayette
Member since Nov 2018
2175 posts
Posted on 9/13/21 at 3:13 pm to
quote:

Wait, so now this thing is coming over Lafayette?


According to rob and his models, crowley to lafayette yeah.
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