re: TS Jerry, TS Karen & More Areas to Watch - Peak Season

This one?

Space city weather on some rain that may be coming from the gulf

https://spacecityweather.com/

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Some readers may note that the National Hurricane Center has begun tracking an upper-level low pressure system over the eastern Gulf of Mexico (note, this is distinct from Tropical Storm Humberto). This is because the forecast models have gotten a little bit more excited about the possibility of this system evolving from a low pressure system in the upper levels of the atmosphere into a low pressure circulation at the surface.

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The hurricane center gives this feature a 30 percent chance of developing into a tropical depression or storm as it moves westward toward the lower or central Texas coast, probably coming ashore on Monday or Tuesday. I’m sure there will be a lot of hoopla about this system over the next couple of days, and some of that is justifiable because one never likes to see low pressure over the Gulf of Mexico in mid-September. With that being said, this one has a long way to go before becoming organized. All of the best global models keep it at tropical depression status right now. So while we cannot rule anything out. I am reasonably confident that we are not looking at a situation in which a hurricane approaches Texas early next week.

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However, even disorganized tropical systems can produce heavy rainfall, and that will be a threat along the Texas coast beginning on Monday. How much of a threat remains to be seen, as there is a considerable spread in the model forecasts. The European model paints a bullseye of 4-6 inches around Matagorda Bay and Victoria, with lesser amounts north and south of there, including for the Houston region. The GFS model keeps totals mostly confined to 2 to 3 inches along most of the Texas coast. Another model we’ve been following more, the Germany-based ICON forecast system, keeps the heaviest rain offshore but does bring 4 to 6 inches into Harris County during the middle of next week.

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Duke-
Regarding Humberto, is outdoor work in the BR area a safe bet next week? Or is “dirt work” a bad plan?

We can't let this thread fall to the second page.

What kind of weather might Fort Polk get next week? We've got some folks on Rotation here next week. They came from afar so they are looking forward to some "exotic" weather.
Or was it exotic women? Either way, what's the weather look like next week? Thanks very much.

I’ve noticed there has been a lot of hurricane activity in the pacific by Mexico headed up toward Cabo lately. Has a hurricane ever hit California around San Diego? I don’t remember hearing about anything major, but was just curious.

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Has a hurricane ever hit California around San Diego? I don’t remember hearing about anything major, but was just curious.

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There was a hurricane that hit San Diego in the 1850s or 1860s. Otherwise, it's typically just rain from decaying systems.

Typically the water is too cold and they get turned out to sea most of the time.

I've seen about 2" where I'm at in the SE part of EBR. Practically all of it Monday night.

Correct. You guys had some small hail close by last week too. We had thunder this morning at MSY but no rainfall in the gauge. Hit or miss isolated convection. The QPF doesn’t do well if a small TS dumps 2-3 inches over Prairieville or Greensburgh but 90 Percent of the CWA stays dry.

Heading to Galveston Friday... doesn’t look like it’ll be a dry trip

It's 9/16 in middle of hurricane season and the hurricane thread has stayed on the same page for 2 days. This is awesomeness at its best.