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re: Tropical Storm Debby - Flooding Threat Slowly Shifting NE

Posted on 8/1/24 at 4:46 pm to
Posted by CoonassatTEXAS
Austin, TX
Member since Nov 2005
1264 posts
Posted on 8/1/24 at 4:46 pm to
Shhhh the Cajun Rivera is paradise
Posted by X123F45
Member since Apr 2015
29827 posts
Posted on 8/1/24 at 4:48 pm to
quote:

Rutherford


It's actually peaceful as all hell
Posted by lake2280
Public intellectual
Member since Nov 2012
4474 posts
Posted on 8/1/24 at 4:48 pm to
I’d rather spend a week at Holly Beach.
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
75137 posts
Posted on 8/1/24 at 4:48 pm to
quote:

Shhhh the Cajun Rivera is paradise

I didn't know Geraldo was from down that way.
Posted by OysterPoBoy
City of St. George
Member since Jul 2013
44877 posts
Posted on 8/1/24 at 4:50 pm to
Looks like bad news for Sanibel Island. They were just getting back on their feet.
Posted by lsumailman61
Gulf Shores
Member since Oct 2006
7968 posts
Posted on 8/1/24 at 4:50 pm to
We had 2 camps at Rutherford Beach from the 50’s until 2005. Spent every summer out there unless I was playing baseball.
Posted by LanierSpots
Sarasota, Florida
Member since Sep 2010
71096 posts
Posted on 8/1/24 at 5:08 pm to
quote:

Looks like bad news for Sanibel Island. They were just getting back on their feet.


Yea, it may get sporty around here. Still recovering in a lot of places.


Watching closely.

Posted by X123F45
Member since Apr 2015
29827 posts
Posted on 8/1/24 at 5:13 pm to
quote:

We had 2 camps at Rutherford Beach from the 50’s until 2005. Spent every summer out there unless I was playing baseball.


I don't want to be a carpetbagger, but all of those vacant properties are mighty tempting.
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
75137 posts
Posted on 8/1/24 at 5:14 pm to
18z GFS has the ridge to the west backing off and the storm getting swept up by the trough/front. It keeps it moving, at least initially.



I think this is more a function of where the system comes off of Cuba. It is more north than past runs.
This post was edited on 8/1/24 at 5:16 pm
Posted by Bobby OG Johnson
Member since Apr 2015
33491 posts
Posted on 8/1/24 at 5:15 pm to
quote:

But why???



You are asking questions to which I have no answer
Posted by lsusteve1
Member since Dec 2004
47836 posts
Posted on 8/1/24 at 5:16 pm to
quote:

18z GFS has the ridge to the west backing off and the storm getting swept up by the trough/front. It keeps it moving, at least initially.


I’ll take that in a heartbeat
Posted by Bobby OG Johnson
Member since Apr 2015
33491 posts
Posted on 8/1/24 at 5:17 pm to
Posted by lsuman25
Erwinville
Member since Aug 2013
43295 posts
Posted on 8/1/24 at 5:18 pm to
Seems like today with the GFS trend is to have the center come off more north off of Cuba hence the Eastern shift in it today and less of a stall over Florida. Hopefully it sticks but somehow i bet there will be more wrinkles.
Posted by Bobby OG Johnson
Member since Apr 2015
33491 posts
Posted on 8/1/24 at 5:18 pm to
quote:

FearlessFreep
Posted by lsuman25
Erwinville
Member since Aug 2013
43295 posts
Posted on 8/1/24 at 5:21 pm to
Take away is where does it come off of Cuba, northern part, in between or somehow more west and south
Posted by lsuman25
Erwinville
Member since Aug 2013
43295 posts
Posted on 8/1/24 at 5:22 pm to
Also in that loop seems the GFS devleops the northern part and the southern part just dissipates.
Posted by deltaland
Member since Mar 2011
102715 posts
Posted on 8/1/24 at 5:43 pm to
quote:

and having this storm follow the shitshow that was Barrel is going have some folks shitting on the NHC yet again.


:looks at oysterpoboy:
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
21522 posts
Posted on 8/1/24 at 5:55 pm to
quote:

Take away is where does it come off of Cuba, northern part, in between or somehow more west and south


It's not really where it comes off Cuba, as much as it's the edge of the WATL ridge. The GFS is trending weaker with the ridge allowing for a sooner potential turn N and then NE. However, models tend to under do the ridge and that's why it's common to see westward trends with storms being steered by this kind of setup.
Posted by lsuman25
Erwinville
Member since Aug 2013
43295 posts
Posted on 8/1/24 at 5:58 pm to
Why you're the best RDS
Posted by LanierSpots
Sarasota, Florida
Member since Sep 2010
71096 posts
Posted on 8/1/24 at 6:25 pm to
quote:

18z GFS has the ridge to the west backing off and the storm getting swept up by the trough/front. It keeps it moving, at least initially.


I’ll take that in a heartbeat



Not super excited about that. If that path were to work out, the eye would pass directly over my shop which is 2 miles inland from Anna Maria island


Dont wish that on me baw


This post was edited on 8/1/24 at 6:28 pm
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