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Started By
Message
re: Tropical Storm Debby - Flooding Threat Slowly Shifting NE
Posted on 8/1/24 at 12:23 pm to nicholastiger
Posted on 8/1/24 at 12:23 pm to nicholastiger
quote:
that's a long time for it to be over land and by the time it comes off Cuba it will have to intensify rapidly
That’s the issue. With lack of steering in the gulf it can drift over water for a few days in very favorable conditions
1
Posted on 8/1/24 at 12:29 pm to deltaland
After listening to Levi confusion for a while. 
Posted on 8/1/24 at 12:39 pm to lsuman25
Just watch the trends. In the past couple days we have gone from a wide spread with anything from OTS to the Central Gulf in play. Every operational has trended towards putting the system off the western tip of Cuba. That means the Gulf is in play for all of them. Beyond that, watch the upper air trends over the Eastern half of the US. That will tell the tale going forward. Most of that is synoptics, but nailing down a landfall will have a good bit to do with the mesoscale which is going to be muddy until we start to get into range of some of the higher res models.
This is going to be a pain in the arse to forecast, and having this storm follow the shitshow that was Barrel is going have some folks shitting on the NHC yet again.
This is going to be a pain in the arse to forecast, and having this storm follow the shitshow that was Barrel is going have some folks shitting on the NHC yet again.
Posted on 8/1/24 at 12:42 pm to rds dc
God protect 30A
For many it’s the only place their wives let them hit it
For many it’s the only place their wives let them hit it
This post was edited on 8/1/24 at 12:43 pm
Posted on 8/1/24 at 1:01 pm to LegendInMyMind
First run of the HMON has it making landfall in Mobile
Posted on 8/1/24 at 1:05 pm to lsuman25
quote:
First run of the HMON has it making landfall in Mobile
As what
Posted on 8/1/24 at 1:07 pm to Fun Bunch
50-60 mph Tropical Storm
Posted on 8/1/24 at 1:08 pm to lsuman25
The main thing is that it doesn't look to stall. Can't be certain, though, as it isn't out far enough to really tell.
This post was edited on 8/1/24 at 1:09 pm
Posted on 8/1/24 at 1:15 pm to LegendInMyMind
HWRF in big bend 4 days from now as a hurricane. Now lets see if it does any weird movements
Posted on 8/1/24 at 1:21 pm to lsuman25
Posted on 8/1/24 at 1:29 pm to lsuman25
quote:
HWRF in big bend 4 days from now as a hurricane. Now lets see if it does any weird movements
Pretty much right on St. Vincent Island at 973mb.
Posted on 8/1/24 at 1:30 pm to rds dc
What model (Euro, GFS, etc) does the National Hurricane Center use when they give their cone? Is it their own model or a blend of others?
Posted on 8/1/24 at 1:34 pm to LegendInMyMind
HWRF starts moving it south at the end of it's run
Posted on 8/1/24 at 1:36 pm to danilo
Blend but it's dynamic. Some favored more than others and what's favored can change from season to season, storm to storm or even forecast to forecast.
Posted on 8/1/24 at 1:50 pm to LanierSpots
That’s another quarter blob left shift. And the blob is now red, no bueno.
Posted on 8/1/24 at 2:03 pm to questionable
Euro hangs it out off the SC coast for like 4 days before moving back inland.
Posted on 8/1/24 at 2:06 pm to LegendInMyMind
Great, I live 25 miles from there
Posted on 8/1/24 at 2:10 pm to LegendInMyMind
If it’s Louisiana’s turn please come at the end of August.
My sunflower field to raise money for St Jude just started blooming.
My sunflower field to raise money for St Jude just started blooming.
Posted on 8/1/24 at 2:12 pm to LegendInMyMind
quote:
St. Vincent Island
Spare the Cape! We are here now
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