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Posted on 6/1/23 at 8:08 pm to Mr. Hangover
quote:
I think I have it all covered.
Not until you get a sandpaper handjob from your private meteorologist
Posted on 6/1/23 at 8:13 pm to Winston Cup
I knew this shite was going to happen. Now the outer bands are approaching the Baton Rouge area. I'll take being in the NW quadrant this time, though.
This post was edited on 6/1/23 at 8:18 pm
Posted on 6/1/23 at 8:18 pm to Mr. Hangover
quote:
I think I have it all covered.
Forgot "Florida cancels a game just to be safe".
Posted on 6/1/23 at 11:06 pm to RockChalkTiger
quote:
I bet none of the historical models had the SSTs we have in the Gulf already this year. Find the red under TD2.
Record High SSTs
You'd lose that bet soundly.
This post was edited on 6/1/23 at 11:10 pm
Posted on 6/2/23 at 5:42 am to RockChalkTiger
quote:
How do you go from 10% to 70% in 12 hours? Time to pitch the historical data and re-run the models based on the environment we have now, and not the one we had 30 years ago. Maybe they wouldn’t have missed the rapid intensification on Michael, Ida, Ian, etc.
You complain about the development chances jumping from 10% to 70% in 12 hours, but then also complain about NHC not forecasting a rapid intensification on previous hurricanes. So in one sentence you’re unhappy that they adjusted their forecast, but then in the next sentence you complain about them not adjusting another forecast.
Am I the only one who sees the irony here?
This post was edited on 6/2/23 at 5:44 am
Posted on 6/2/23 at 6:00 am to rds dc
Do hurricanes have back up beeps?
Posted on 6/2/23 at 6:02 am to Roll Tide Ravens
Actually, my concern is that the current models are underanticipating what is actually happening. Storms are intensifying before landfall at a higher rate than predicted, just like the model runs Wednesday missed that we’d have a TD Thursday. I just want an accurate forecast, that’s all. Which is why I stick my nose in here—I get that the NHC doesn’t want to cry wolf too often. But I appreciate the amateur/professional takes on what COULD happen. Just in case it does. Again.
This post was edited on 6/2/23 at 6:07 am
Posted on 6/2/23 at 6:34 am to RockChalkTiger
Feel sorry for the cruise boat coming back from western Carib
Posted on 6/2/23 at 8:42 am to lake chuck fan
Somebody tell that fricker it's going the wrong way! Lol
Posted on 6/2/23 at 9:55 am to RockChalkTiger
quote:
Actually, my concern is that the current models are underanticipating what is actually happening.
I don't share the concern. The use of models, when actually forecasting, is taking into account known biases with each model and asking questions like "does this make sense physically?".
Some models will miss rapid intensifications. Those models will still typically show you a low shear/warm water environment though.
Give me an upper level high over a hurricane with good warm water, I'm worried about RI even if the models aren't popping it off.
quote:
Storms are intensifying before landfall at a higher rate than predicted, just like the model runs Wednesday missed that we’d have a TD Thursday.
The reality though is a blob of storms without a defined surface low and one with a really poorly defined surface low aren't really that different. The question of TD/not TD is "does it just meet the technical requirements of being a tropical cyclone or not?"
I'd understand you more if the forecast was a 30 kt nothing and we had a strong TS today.
quote:
Which is why I stick my nose in here
Good. Stick around.
Posted on 6/2/23 at 3:05 pm to rds dc
quote:
Upgraded to Arlene.
Hide ya shite. She's been known to steal Iroc Z wheels and kegerators and she ain't above helping her lowlife friends strip your central unit of copper wire.
ETA: Levi just posted the first Tropical Tidbits video of the season.
This post was edited on 6/2/23 at 3:08 pm
Posted on 6/2/23 at 7:25 pm to RockChalkTiger
quote:
I just want an accurate forecast, that’s all.
I just want Paige spirinac to sit on my face
Posted on 6/2/23 at 8:17 pm to rds dc
Will this cancel NCAA regional baseball?
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