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re: Tropical Storm Arlene- Heading Southward - No Threat to LSU vs FSU

Posted on 6/1/23 at 1:27 pm to
Posted by East Coast Band
Member since Nov 2010
62790 posts
Posted on 6/1/23 at 1:27 pm to
Yall hate it when someone other than RDS starts a hurricane thread, but let's face it, our threads' tropical systems typically fizzle out, whereas RDS tropical systems are the real deals.
Posted by udtiger
Over your left shoulder
Member since Nov 2006
98806 posts
Posted on 6/1/23 at 1:28 pm to
quote:

Look at the bright possibilities... it could ramp up to a 5 and directly hit New Orleans. Like a rinse...


don't tease me
Posted by WhiteRussianDude
Member since Feb 2023
206 posts
Posted on 6/1/23 at 1:31 pm to
quote:

So soon. And right at the beginning of gay month.


..Not gonna be the only thing blowing this month.
Posted by LSURoss
SWLAish
Member since Dec 2007
15318 posts
Posted on 6/1/23 at 1:45 pm to
I'm going to Ireland in six weeks, should I cancel?
Posted by onelochevy
Slidell, LA
Member since Jan 2011
16534 posts
Posted on 6/1/23 at 1:56 pm to
Nice and breezy in PCB right now. Perfect day for an outside concert
Posted by Klingler7
Houston
Member since Nov 2009
11977 posts
Posted on 6/1/23 at 1:56 pm to
91L : 19:46z : peak 10 sec wind 36kt. (41 mph)

1008.0 mb (29.77 in hg)
This post was edited on 6/1/23 at 1:59 pm
Posted by WestCoastAg
Member since Oct 2012
145162 posts
Posted on 6/1/23 at 2:14 pm to
quote:

Crawfish prices
Blue shed
Hurricane bingo
Will this change my flight plans?
Is this the longest thread in TD history?
i am supposed to drive through the landfall area right at the exact time of landfall. Will I be safe?
Posted by TigerTatorTots
The Safeshore
Member since Jul 2009
80778 posts
Posted on 6/1/23 at 2:19 pm to
quote:

Crawfish prices
Blue shed
Hurricane bingo
Will this change my flight plans?
Is this the longest thread in TD history?





I think I have it all covered.
No Punta Cana no care

Posted by alphaandomega
Tuscaloosa
Member since Aug 2012
13548 posts
Posted on 6/1/23 at 2:24 pm to
Posted by notiger1997
Metairie
Member since May 2009
58131 posts
Posted on 6/1/23 at 2:27 pm to
quote:

Look at the bright possibilities... it could ramp up to a 5 and directly hit New Orleans. Like a rinse..


Nah. It needs to go wherever your doublewide is parked
Posted by Ace Midnight
Between sanity and madness
Member since Dec 2006
89531 posts
Posted on 6/1/23 at 2:34 pm to
quote:

Will I be safe?


Short answer: No.

Long answer: Probably.
Posted by Nicky Parrish
Member since Apr 2016
7098 posts
Posted on 6/1/23 at 2:38 pm to
The fear mongers are out in force
Posted by Klingler7
Houston
Member since Nov 2009
11977 posts
Posted on 6/1/23 at 2:41 pm to
19:40Z. : invest 91L : lowest estr. Pressure is 1006.6 mb.
Posted by RockChalkTiger
A Little Bit South of Saskatoon
Member since May 2009
10340 posts
Posted on 6/1/23 at 2:45 pm to
One day into the season and the NHC is already 0-2, after missing the one that hit the cruise ship last week. How do you go from 10% to 70% in 12 hours? Time to pitch the historical data and re-run the models based on the environment we have now, and not the one we had 30 years ago. Maybe they wouldn’t have missed the rapid intensification on Michael, Ida, Ian, etc.
This post was edited on 6/1/23 at 2:46 pm
Posted by notiger1997
Metairie
Member since May 2009
58131 posts
Posted on 6/1/23 at 2:46 pm to
quote:

The fear mongers are out in force


Got any examples?
Posted by deltaland
Member since Mar 2011
90617 posts
Posted on 6/1/23 at 3:18 pm to
quote:

How do you go from 10% to 70% in 12 hours?


That’s fairly common
Posted by Tarps99
Lafourche Parish
Member since Apr 2017
7421 posts
Posted on 6/1/23 at 3:25 pm to
quote:

How do you go from 10% to 70% in 12 hours?


That’s fairly common


How many times have we been duped on the 15 day forecast models showing a Cat 5 over Venice?

Weather can be unpredictable, it changes every minute regardless of what computer model tells you. It is only a prediction and a best guess at that.
Posted by Fun Bunch
New Orleans
Member since May 2008
115833 posts
Posted on 6/1/23 at 3:27 pm to
quote:

Yall hate it when someone other than RDS starts a hurricane thread, but let's face it, our threads' tropical systems typically fizzle out, whereas RDS tropical systems are the real deals.



Posted by notiger1997
Metairie
Member since May 2009
58131 posts
Posted on 6/1/23 at 3:27 pm to
quote:

How many times have we been duped on the 15 day forecast models


People that think anything over 10 days out is a good track deserve to be fooled
Posted by Duke
Twin Lakes, CO
Member since Jan 2008
35623 posts
Posted on 6/1/23 at 3:29 pm to
quote:

One day into the season and the NHC is already 0-2, after missing the one that hit the cruise ship last week.


What are you talking about?

That wasnt tropical last week. It aint the NHC's purview.

Ramping up odds fast on an invest isnt unusual either. New information comes in, they get adjusted.

quote:

How many times have we been duped on the 15 day forecast models showing a Cat 5 over Venice?


Post a 15 day out model here and watch the hate flow. Practically everyone knows 15 day out on models are fantasy.
This post was edited on 6/1/23 at 3:31 pm
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