re: Tropical Development - Mid Atlantic - 70% 5 Day Development

He better hunker down for a cooler breeze.

It's possible it could develop into something weak, but will bring higher rain chances with it no matter what.

The one back near Africa has a better chance of actually forming into something, getting a boost from that Kelvin wave. Hard to argue with rds's analysis that would have it curving off the east coast and eventually out to sea.

Peej said nothingburger for South LA which was false

Tell that to people that lost power for 3 days. And some people did get 15” of rain

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There is an interesting question raised though. Was Peej right enough to say his curse is broken? I'd argue why risk it, but worth consideration nonetheless.

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Very good question and worth pondering. I mean PEEEEJJJ was more accurate for Barry than many of the high paying meteorologists on TV. He simply nailed it.

This storm will be interesting to watch by the end of next week. GFS and European having it as a fish storm but close enough to the florida east coast to keep an eye on.

Totally unrelated to this storm but, I was in a hardware store when Irma was building. Old yankee in there started bellowing about how Sandy was so bad up north. I agreed with him, then he said the Gulf states NEVER get anything near as rough as Sandy.

About a week later, Irma's eye went about 15-20 miles west of my house. The streets were just tunnels of piled up trees afterwards, most piles being about 8' tall. Charlie, Jean, and Francis were nothing compared to Irma.

I still look for that old yankee occasionally.


Africa sends the bad ones. Duke, any predictions on frequency of start ups this year?

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5-day development chance is orange now - 50%

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Duke, any predictions on frequency of start ups this year?

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If I could answer that with certainty, someone would be paying me a whole lot of money to do so. I can speculate wildly though.

Ocean temps in the deep tropics are relatively cool for this time of year, with the subtropics being pretty warm overall. The Caribbean has been a buzzsaw shear wise, so I doubt we'll see those long track CV storms through the Caribbean into the Gulf. At least until the middle of September.

With the NAO looking to stay negative (and perhaps dive way negative for a while), this should keep the Bermuda High a little suppressed and generally keep troughs over the east coast. Makes a nice little path to turn stuff out to sea off the east coast. Think this will hold true for most of August at least. After that...well reassess when it gets closer.

Thanks for the post.