re: Tropical Development - Mid Atlantic - 70% 5 Day Development

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If I could answer that with certainty, someone would be paying me a whole lot of money to do so. I can speculate wildly though.

Ocean temps in the deep tropics are relatively cool for this time of year, with the subtropics being pretty warm overall. The Caribbean has been a buzzsaw shear wise, so I doubt we'll see those long track CV storms through the Caribbean into the Gulf. At least until the middle of September.

With the NAO looking to stay negative (and perhaps dive way negative for a while), this should keep the Bermuda High a little suppressed and generally keep troughs over the east coast. Makes a nice little path to turn stuff out to sea off the east coast. Think this will hold true for most of August at least. After that...well reassess when it gets closer.

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I love quoting your shite to my non-OT boys acting like I know something. Just sucks when they ask me a question...