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Started By
Message
1
Posted on 4/2/17 at 10:46 am to rt3
quote:
Fordoche
Shite, that area got hit not long ago.
Posted on 4/2/17 at 10:46 am to fishfighter
quote:
So, is there a tornado coming towards New Roads area?
yes... a storm showing strong rotation is heading dead red for New Roads
the tornado warning doesn't reach NR yet... but if it keeps going there should be one coming out
Posted on 4/2/17 at 10:46 am to baytiger
quote:
a weak cap can actually aid supercell development. prevents everything from blowing up into a big MCS so you get lots of discrete cells with strong updrafts where the cap does break.
I agree. My point was that a lot of storms firing at once can prevent the necessary ingredients for a certain cell to become tornadic in nature. Too much energy can be taken away from them due to another cell cutting it off.
Posted on 4/2/17 at 10:47 am to baytiger
quote:
yeah and steph abrams thinks the atmosphere is a hamburger, what's your point?
I'd still tap it
Posted on 4/2/17 at 10:48 am to rt3
The SELA tornado is coming up on and hour and a half since warned.
Anybody have any idea if it's gotten down at all?
Anybody have any idea if it's gotten down at all?
Posted on 4/2/17 at 10:49 am to rt3
Well, there is a shite load of lighting around here. I bit more to the west, southwest. 
Posted on 4/2/17 at 10:49 am to rt3
Sheeesh
Posted on 4/2/17 at 10:51 am to baytiger
quote:
a weak cap can actually aid supercell development. prevents everything from blowing up into a big MCS so you get lots of discrete cells with strong updrafts where the cap does break.
Cap is tricky, typically an upcapped early day setup results in lots of junk convection. However, today the atmosphere was primed from early on for big surface based convection. The mid level flow this morning seemed to favor more upscale growth and these cells might stabilize the atmosphere to the point that there won't be enough forcing later to fire discrete cells out away from the cold front. Kind of what the latest HRRR runs are showing.
Posted on 4/2/17 at 10:54 am to rds dc
You'd love my house. I'm on a hill facing west in NW Austin. This shite comes right at me every time. Kinda scary and kinda fun.
Posted on 4/2/17 at 10:55 am to rds dc
quote:
Cap is tricky, typically an upcapped early day setup results in lots of junk convection. However, today the atmosphere was primed from early on for big surface based convection. The mid level flow this morning seemed to favor more upscale growth and these cells might stabilize the atmosphere to the point that there won't be enough forcing later to fire discrete cells out away from the cold front. Kind of what the latest HRRR runs are showing.
That's been my thought on it.
I've always heard that storm chasers actually want a little cap to keep things in check prior to storms forming. Keeps the atmosphere ripe.
Posted on 4/2/17 at 10:56 am to rt3
quote:
new tornado watch that now covers me
Very high probabilities:
quote:
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
High (90%)
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
High (70%)
Based on the location, looks like SPC is favoring more cell development out ahead of the main line.
Posted on 4/2/17 at 10:57 am to crtodd
quote:
In New Roads with my mom right now and the TV is out....keep me posted please? Trying to keep up on here but hard to
Stay safe for the next half hour or so. Unlikely there is a tornado on the ground right now, but you should still be vigilant. Interior room, etc.
Posted on 4/2/17 at 10:58 am to Teddy Ruxpin
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1054 AM CDT Sun Apr 2 2017
.UPDATE...
Upgrading the DSS level to ORANGE - High Impact at this time.
No other changes at this time. 24/RR
&&
.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...ORANGE.
DEPLOYED...None.
ACTIVATION...High Impact and coordinators desk,
Ozone and Baton Rouge Amatuer Radio clubs.
ACTIVITIES...Short fused warnings, EM support
Decision Support Service (DSS) Code Legend:
GREEN = No weather impacts that require action
BLUE = Long fused Watch/Warning/Advisory in effect or high
visibility event
YELLOW = Heightened impacts with short fused
Watch/Warning/Advisory issuances; Radar support
ORANGE = High Impacts - Slight to Moderate risk of severe weather;
Nearby tropical events, HAZMAT or other large episodes
RED = Full engagement for moderate risk of severe weather; Direct
tropical threats; events of national significance.
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1054 AM CDT Sun Apr 2 2017
.UPDATE...
Upgrading the DSS level to ORANGE - High Impact at this time.
No other changes at this time. 24/RR
&&
.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...ORANGE.
DEPLOYED...None.
ACTIVATION...High Impact and coordinators desk,
Ozone and Baton Rouge Amatuer Radio clubs.
ACTIVITIES...Short fused warnings, EM support
Decision Support Service (DSS) Code Legend:
GREEN = No weather impacts that require action
BLUE = Long fused Watch/Warning/Advisory in effect or high
visibility event
YELLOW = Heightened impacts with short fused
Watch/Warning/Advisory issuances; Radar support
ORANGE = High Impacts - Slight to Moderate risk of severe weather;
Nearby tropical events, HAZMAT or other large episodes
RED = Full engagement for moderate risk of severe weather; Direct
tropical threats; events of national significance.
Posted on 4/2/17 at 10:58 am to tigerfoot
That one moving towards New Roads has a little hook on it. Looks bad.
There are a lot of trees in that area. It may not be on the ground but it looks like it is trying to develop.
There are a lot of trees in that area. It may not be on the ground but it looks like it is trying to develop.
This post was edited on 4/2/17 at 11:00 am
Posted on 4/2/17 at 11:00 am to rds dc
Is there still talk of one of these watches becoming a PDS Watch? Or are they backing off on that?
Posted on 4/2/17 at 11:00 am to slackster
Dang internet service is super slow.
Posted on 4/2/17 at 11:01 am to baytiger
NOTE: The tornado watch in east Texas and north and Western Louisiana, though not a PDS watch, is listed with a high probability of tornadoes and a high probability of EF-2+ tornadoes.
This post was edited on 4/2/17 at 11:02 am
Posted on 4/2/17 at 11:01 am to baytiger
quote:
it's a good sign. it means the storm cell's rotation is getting less intense. Tornado probably won't last much longer.
No more warnings on the cell west of BR
Posted on 4/2/17 at 11:01 am to member12
Tornado warning near New Roads has been dropped. Very broad circulation at this moment. Folks in the area should still be mindful of the situation though. Hail and severe weather are still expected.
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