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Message

re: Tornado outbreak, 94 dead, Upwards of 100 unaccounted for search/rescue & cleanup ongoing

Posted on 12/9/21 at 2:58 pm to
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
65856 posts
Posted on 12/9/21 at 2:58 pm to
I don't like the looks of this storm mode from the 18z HRRR:

Posted by deltaland
Member since Mar 2011
96562 posts
Posted on 12/9/21 at 3:04 pm to
Now that’s a spicy meatball
Posted by TheFonz
Somewhere in Louisiana
Member since Jul 2016
21922 posts
Posted on 12/9/21 at 3:23 pm to
Boy I wish I could understand what the frick y’all are looking at and talking about.
Posted by DeoreDX
Member since Oct 2010
4143 posts
Posted on 12/9/21 at 3:27 pm to
Explain this to me like I'm 5. When should I see this in Bham?
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36408 posts
Posted on 12/9/21 at 3:28 pm to
My question at this point is with that southern shortwave thats going to rotate into the main trough. As it swings around and into the larger system, does the lift associated get a few storms going ahead of the front/best shear.

The analogs are all over the place too.

Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36408 posts
Posted on 12/9/21 at 3:31 pm to
quote:

Boy I wish I could understand what the frick y’all are looking at and talking about.


Basically individual supercells = max tornado potential. The discussion is really about if we get a bunch of individual cells or something more like a broken line.

And for all the technical babble, we dont have an answer. At least IDK.
Posted by rt3
now in the piney woods of Pineville
Member since Apr 2011
143975 posts
Posted on 12/9/21 at 3:36 pm to
not to mention... it's at least partially going to be an overnight event

they're talking midnight to 9 AM Saturday for us here in CenLA
This post was edited on 12/9/21 at 3:41 pm
Posted by Slagathor
Makin' jokes about your teeny tiny
Member since Jul 2007
38745 posts
Posted on 12/9/21 at 3:38 pm to
quote:

The analogs are all over the place too


people should properly secure them before bad storms






I'm sorry.
Posted by S
RIP Wayde
Member since Jan 2007
164194 posts
Posted on 12/9/21 at 3:43 pm to
quote:

the swings are killing me.


Yea that’s why i always enjoy the consistency of November. Every year we get some weird april-ish weather around xmas
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
65856 posts
Posted on 12/9/21 at 4:41 pm to
quote:

people should properly secure them before bad storms



I laughed.
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36408 posts
Posted on 12/9/21 at 4:52 pm to
quote:

not to mention... it's at least partially going to be an overnight event


Is it really Dixie if its not a nocturnal outbreak?
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
65856 posts
Posted on 12/9/21 at 4:54 pm to
I just looked at the STP (Significant Tornado Parameter) on the HRRR. Let's hope it is just doing HRRR things.
Posted by deltaland
Member since Mar 2011
96562 posts
Posted on 12/9/21 at 5:14 pm to
Won’t it being a night event take some energy out of the air limiting the potential?

ETA damn my grammar is bad even my gf says it’s bad now when I talk. Starting to think I had a mild stroke
This post was edited on 12/9/21 at 5:18 pm
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
65856 posts
Posted on 12/9/21 at 5:19 pm to
quote:

Starting to think I had a mild stroke

Settle down, that's Owlie's hustle, baw.
Posted by Impotent Waffle
Baton Rouge
Member since Sep 2007
10068 posts
Posted on 12/9/21 at 5:25 pm to
What does it all mean? Do I need toilet paper? Will my inflatables make it? In BR?

Thanks..
Posted by deltaland
Member since Mar 2011
96562 posts
Posted on 12/9/21 at 5:29 pm to
Buy milk and bread baw
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36408 posts
Posted on 12/9/21 at 5:33 pm to
quote:


Won’t it being a night event take some energy out of the air limiting the potential?



In December, the potential is the cold air aloft. It helps a little bit, but it's not like it's April where the sun can really crank the temp up.
Posted by T_don
Abbeville
Member since Dec 2019
398 posts
Posted on 12/9/21 at 5:38 pm to
What’s the verdict for south Louisiana particularly Lafayette/youngsville area? I wish I could understand what the frick y’all say on here when it comes to weather lol
Posted by deltaland
Member since Mar 2011
96562 posts
Posted on 12/9/21 at 5:41 pm to
It is going to be a high tomorrow of 79. Plenty of warm air

What’s the timing for the MS delta region looking like?
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
65856 posts
Posted on 12/9/21 at 5:49 pm to
quote:

What’s the verdict for south Louisiana particularly Lafayette/youngsville area?

That far South you all won't have as much concern for supercell development, but you will have to deal with the squall line coming through late Saturday morning which could be severe.
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