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re: Tornado! Large PDS Watch Issued for Portions of LA & MS

Posted on 11/29/22 at 3:07 pm to
Posted by Roll Tide Ravens
Birmingham, AL
Member since Nov 2015
48931 posts
Posted on 11/29/22 at 3:07 pm to
quote:

I googled this, read two sentences, and said frick it.


Unstable air supports the development of surface based thunderstorms, which can become severe. The more surface based CAPE there is, the more unstable the air is, and the more fuel there is for the development of severe storms. In the winter months, it doesn't take much CAPE for severe storms, so seeing CAPE numbers over 1,000 is significant.
This post was edited on 11/29/22 at 3:08 pm
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
67232 posts
Posted on 11/29/22 at 3:08 pm to
Tornado or not, that's a rough storm. Warnings notes 2.5" hail.

Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
67232 posts
Posted on 11/29/22 at 3:11 pm to
I think that storm may be trying to put one down now, though.
Posted by paperwasp
25x HRV tRant Poster of the Week
Member since Sep 2014
27138 posts
Posted on 11/29/22 at 3:12 pm to
quote:

said frick it

It's just the amount of energy or fuel available to make a storm strong.

All you really need to know is that the instability can be:

<1000 weak
2500 moderate
4000 strong
>4000 real skrong

Higher values means more opportunities for a stronger thunderstorm or tornado to form.

(An area with low CAPE can still form a tornado, but there can be outbreaks in areas with higher CAPE.)
This post was edited on 11/29/22 at 3:19 pm
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
67232 posts
Posted on 11/29/22 at 3:15 pm to
Everything is struggling to mature and maintain an updraft right now. Lapse rates just aren't there at the moment.
Posted by paperwasp
25x HRV tRant Poster of the Week
Member since Sep 2014
27138 posts
Posted on 11/29/22 at 3:20 pm to
quote:

struggling to maintain an updraft

Posted by Champagne
Sabine Free State.
Member since Oct 2007
51676 posts
Posted on 11/29/22 at 3:20 pm to
quote:

Everything is struggling to mature and maintain an updraft right now. Lapse rates just aren't there at the moment.


That's good news, I think.
Posted by lachellie
LALA Land
Member since Aug 2012
1115 posts
Posted on 11/29/22 at 3:22 pm to
That cell coming across Toledo Bend has me worried.
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
67232 posts
Posted on 11/29/22 at 3:23 pm to
quote:

That's good news, I think.

It is. It was the main failure mode as far as the high end goes. Let's see if it holds. We could see the switch flip in a while when the LLJ ramps up.
Posted by deltaland
Member since Mar 2011
97244 posts
Posted on 11/29/22 at 3:25 pm to
quote:

Tornado or not, that's a rough storm. Warnings notes 2.5" hail.


My deer camp is between vaiden and Kilmichael fml
Posted by chinhoyang
Member since Jun 2011
25101 posts
Posted on 11/29/22 at 3:25 pm to
quote:

That cell coming across Toledo Bend has me worried.


The one aiming for Sabine Parish? I hope it calms down, as the guy who works on my old cars has three in process right now and his shop is close to the path.
Posted by deltaland
Member since Mar 2011
97244 posts
Posted on 11/29/22 at 3:30 pm to
Decided I didn’t want to drive to stuttgart today. Heading south to get closer to the action




Posted by Pisco
Mayfield, Kentucky
Member since Dec 2019
4122 posts
Posted on 11/29/22 at 3:43 pm to
WTVA with the livestream. Be safe y’all.
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
67232 posts
Posted on 11/29/22 at 3:44 pm to
Storm near Kilmichael, MS just went observed.

ETA: And now it isn't.
This post was edited on 11/29/22 at 3:47 pm
Posted by deltaland
Member since Mar 2011
97244 posts
Posted on 11/29/22 at 3:50 pm to
I’m gonna be busy with a chainsaw this weekend arent I

Posted by MorbidTheClown
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2015
71872 posts
Posted on 11/29/22 at 3:56 pm to
Steve Caparotta, Ph.D.
@SteveWAFB
·
1m
Report from around 3:30 this afternoon
Quote Tweet
Jeff Piotrowski
@Jeff_Piotrowski
·
23m
Small tornado now 7 west of McComb debris falling from sky. @NWSNewOrleans
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
67232 posts
Posted on 11/29/22 at 3:58 pm to
quote:

Jeff Piotrowski

quote:

debris falling from sky.

I bet it was a Boeing 777.
Posted by Roll Tide Ravens
Birmingham, AL
Member since Nov 2015
48931 posts
Posted on 11/29/22 at 3:59 pm to
Posted by deltaland
Member since Mar 2011
97244 posts
Posted on 11/29/22 at 4:02 pm to
So far not looking like anything other than a few cells with rotation and small short lived tornadoes

Is it supposed to be worse this evening or are we looking at a possible bust?
Posted by pdubya76
Sw Ms
Member since Mar 2012
6393 posts
Posted on 11/29/22 at 4:03 pm to
quote:

Small tornado now 7 west of McComb debris falling from sky. @NWSNewOrleans


The tornado sirens were going off in Liberty around 230. I haven’t heard of any damage in this area as of yet.
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