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re: Tornado! High Risk Day w/ 3 Active PDS Watches

Posted on 1/22/17 at 10:56 am to
Posted by Roll Tide Ravens
Birmingham, AL
Member since Nov 2015
51945 posts
Posted on 1/22/17 at 10:56 am to
Looking at the models, the low almost looks like a mini-tropical system when it moves inland. It is also a cold-core low, so hail will be an issue for places that end up underneath it.
This post was edited on 1/22/17 at 10:59 am
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
21669 posts
Posted on 1/22/17 at 11:02 am to
quote:

Looking at the models, the low almost looks like a mini-tropical system when it moves inland.


Hermine was 982 at landfall this past summer
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
21669 posts
Posted on 1/22/17 at 11:04 am to
Areas in Georgia were just devastated overnight... this has already been a bad string of days.

Posted by cubsfan5150
NWA
Member since Nov 2007
18925 posts
Posted on 1/22/17 at 11:14 am to
If that's Adel, that's about 15 miles north of me. I've seen some other pictures too. Not much left where the tornado hit.
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
21669 posts
Posted on 1/22/17 at 11:16 am to
Yes, the pictures out of that area extremely disturbing.
Posted by Paul Allen
Montauk, NY
Member since Nov 2007
78655 posts
Posted on 1/22/17 at 11:31 am to
Any reports out of Ft Walton Beach and Destin?
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
21669 posts
Posted on 1/22/17 at 11:57 am to
PDS for second day in a row. This one is basically maxed out:


TORNADO WATCH PROBABILITIES FOR WT 0021
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1142 AM CST SUN JAN 22 2017

WT 0021 PDS
PROBABILITY TABLE:
PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES : 90%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /F2-F5/ TORNADOES : 90%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS : 90%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS : 90%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS : 90%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES : 90%
PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS : >95%


Posted by cubsfan5150
NWA
Member since Nov 2007
18925 posts
Posted on 1/22/17 at 11:58 am to
Crazy, for the second time within a year a tornado has hit within a mile south of me. Luckily, no damage either time.

Edit: To be clear, I sustained no damage. Lots of downed trees south of me.
This post was edited on 1/22/17 at 12:10 pm
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36494 posts
Posted on 1/22/17 at 11:59 am to
Wow on those probabilities!
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91871 posts
Posted on 1/22/17 at 12:09 pm to
Tornado warning NW of Montgomery.

quote:

681
WFUS54 KBMX 221804
TORBMX
ALC001-221845-
/O.NEW.KBMX.TO.W.0011.170122T1804Z-170122T1845Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1204 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2017

The National Weather Service in Birmingham has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
Northern Autauga County in Alabama...

* Until 1245 PM CST

* At 1203 PM CST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a
tornado was located over Mulberry, or 11 miles east of Valley
Grande, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.

* Locations impacted include...
Deatsville, Billingsley, Vida Junction, Booth, Marbury, Mulberry
and New Prospect.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3242 8683 3243 8683 3251 8687 3271 8664
3271 8641 3257 8641 3240 8682
TIME...MOT...LOC 1803Z 233DEG 26KT 3248 8679

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...<.75IN

$$



Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91871 posts
Posted on 1/22/17 at 12:13 pm to
That warning near Montgomery seems a bit unique in that it appears to be the center of the low level circulation as well.

I don't know if that is rare or not, but usually you see these warning are far out in front of the overall system.
Posted by SEClint
New Orleans, LA/Portland, OR
Member since Nov 2006
49487 posts
Posted on 1/22/17 at 12:21 pm to
How many people have heard the roaring of a tornado IRL?

I'll never forget that sound, and it's so spooky when it's at night. Its like, fighting blind.
Posted by wareagle47
Member since Dec 2009
1388 posts
Posted on 1/22/17 at 12:25 pm to
quote:

Crazy, for the second time within a year a tornado has hit within a mile south of me. Luckily, no damage either time.

Edit: To be clear, I sustained no damage. Lots of downed trees south of me.


Did you grow up in Valdosta? I grew up there and still have family there and in Nashville, GA. Sounds like things down there got a little crazy last night. Two of my grandfather's friends were killed when a tree fell on their house around 4am. Hope that area is spared this afternoon during the second round.
This post was edited on 1/22/17 at 12:26 pm
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91871 posts
Posted on 1/22/17 at 12:25 pm to
quote:

Crazy, for the second time within a year a tornado has hit within a mile south of me. Luckily, no damage either time.

Edit: To be clear, I sustained no damage. Lots of downed trees south of me.


FYI, if you're in Valdosta, GA, you're severe weather threat doesn't really diminish until 4-5pm local time. You're through the early day stuff but the afternoon stuff is still coming.



Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91871 posts
Posted on 1/22/17 at 12:31 pm to
This spin up has been warned, but appears to be broadening over the last few minutes.

Posted by cubsfan5150
NWA
Member since Nov 2007
18925 posts
Posted on 1/22/17 at 12:39 pm to
Any clue where they lived?
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36494 posts
Posted on 1/22/17 at 12:41 pm to
Good radar reading slackster. You're getting pretty good at seeing this stuff.
Posted by Crimson1st
Birmingham, AL
Member since Nov 2010
21151 posts
Posted on 1/22/17 at 12:42 pm to
Wow I don't recall seeing numbers so high on a watch since April 2011. That's some freaky high potency...prayers out to those affected already and who are in the watch area!
Posted by wareagle47
Member since Dec 2009
1388 posts
Posted on 1/22/17 at 12:46 pm to
Lived just outside of Nashville. Not too far off of Adel Hwy.
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
21669 posts
Posted on 1/22/17 at 12:51 pm to
Looks like 3 semi discrete supercells are about to move onshore around Mexico Beach

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