re: The odds that we live in a simulation are close to 1

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Personally, I don't think we are anywhere close to creating a true AI.

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Depends on the theory you believe.

If technology advances at an ever increasing rate, meaning the more tech advances the faster tech advances basically exponentially without limit until singularity, we may be very close.

It’s very intersection. What’s even more interesting to me is that our creator has basically told the world that he created us in a similar fashion. You know, in his image. Similar to us creating AI in our image. Yet, people will latch on to all variations of the idea itself but will do everything possible to not give credence to Yahweh even when it is right there in front of their face.

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It is, and we're witnessing/about to witness the development of truly impressive AI first hand, which is very cool.

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I dont think we are quite that close to agi. Also we have little understanding of how our consciousness truly interacts with our biological bodies and what functions go hand in hand. Im not convinced a "concious" being without a biological body would be recognizable even if it is possible.

lofty Unfrozen Caveman Lawyer meme, mate

TYFYS Phil Hartman

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Can we discuss that you provide no support for your random conjecture

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You’re looking at it wrong if you expect actual evidence that we live in a simulation. Its most likely impossible to get evidence for that since the only evidence for that is most likely only contained outside of our universe.

The closest we will get to evidence is if we’re able to create simulations containing conscious beings. If we can, the odds that we live in a simulation are very close to 1, as I’ve talked about earlier in the thread.

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You can't have odds for things that haven't been proven to happen.

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Actually that's the only things we put odds on. If it's been proven then it's a certainty.

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Honestly I'm not sure what you mean by that either odds are 1 makes no sense. You mean a 100% chance?

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He means probability of 1. Probabilities are on a scale from 0 to 1, so yes 1 is 100%.

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whoever is controlling my player must be bored as hell

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No shite. My guy must have put his controller down and went outside to ride his bike for 2 years.

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You’re looking at it wrong if you expect actual evidence that we live in a simulation. Its most likely impossible to get evidence for that since the only evidence for that is most likely only contained outside of our universe.

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There are scientist that are exploring ways to investigate this subject...

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Such existential-sounding hypotheses often tend to be essentially untestable, but some researchers think they could find experimental evidence that we are living in a computer game. One idea is that the programmers might cut corners to make the simulation easier to run. “If there is an underlying simulation of the universe that has the problem of finite computational resources, just as we do, then the laws of physics have to be put on a finite set of points in a finite volume,” said Zohreh Davoudi, a physicist at MIT. “Then we go back and see what kind of signatures we find that tell us we started from non-continuous spacetime.” That evidence might come, for example, in the form of an unusual distribution of energies among the cosmic rays hitting Earth that suggests spacetime is not continuous, but made of discrete points. “That’s the kind of evidence that would convince me as a physicist,” Gates said. Yet proving the opposite—that the universe is real—might be harder. “You’re not going to get proof that we’re not in a simulation, because any evidence that we get could be simulated,” said David Chalmers, a professor of philosophy at New York University.

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If I understand this correctly there may be signs of limited "ram" in the universe for lack of better analogy...lol
From Scientific American article
LINK

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Porcine Human

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Obvious, but still a GREAT name.

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Ok so if we aren't sure about life being a simulation than no you couldn't put odds on it and it's absurd to say it's a 100% chance of happening. Is it possible? Yes but it is also possible for a God/gods or anything supernatural existing and both are unproven.

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I see, so you don't understand the math. Or the concept. Or the words that were typed.

OP didn't say there's that high a chance of it happening, he said the probability is that high that we are *already* living in a simulation. The logic goes like this:

Is it possible to create a true artificial intelligence? Well, do you think we are close right now? Or do you think we will get there in 100 years? Or how about a million years? Do you think humans a million years from now might be capable of creating an AI?

Because here's the thing, it doesn't matter how long it takes. Even if it takes us 100 million years to create a computer that powerful, that possibility makes it almost a certainty that we are in a simulation ourselves. Because if we can create AI, then simulating a universe is pretty trivial because we can already model our own pretty accurately. And we can run our simulation at whatever speed we like, so our simulated universe will evolve much faster than our own until they inevitably develop their own AI and simulated universe. And so on and so on, deeper and deeper levels of simulations, essentially forever.

And of this stack of countless simulated universes, only one of them, the first, is the "real" world. What are the chances that we are in that one? Slim to none is the answer.

So you have to choose one of two possible answers. Either you believe that true AI is achievable, even if it takes us millions of years, in which case the probability that we are currently in a simulation ourselves is nearly 100%. Or you do not believe that true AI is achievable, in which case the probability is of course 0% that we are in a simulation.


In short, OP wasn't talking about the odds that we will create AI. Any probability assigned to that is just a guess. Rather, the inevitability of AI is taken as a given, which results in the mathematical probability of nearly 1 that we are already inside a simulation.