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Message

re: The math for buying a home no longer works, per WSJ

Posted on 12/20/23 at 7:16 pm to
Posted by meansonny
ATL
Member since Sep 2012
26797 posts
Posted on 12/20/23 at 7:16 pm to
quote:

Let’s assume under your ridiculous scenario here that it’s plausible. Take home after taxes is going to net them about $4400/month in income

Conservatively, let’s assume your couple making 75 grand is going to pursue this house using your original $1100/m note. Add in insurance and escrow and that becomes about $1750.
Car insurance is going to run $250
Utility bills about $200
Cell phone for 2 people is $200
Internet is $65
Fuel, very conservative, $200
General upkeep and consumables, $300
Very conservative, let’s limit a car note (or two since they’re going to drive beaters) to $500.

That leaves them with $985 out of their original $4400, or $246/wk of disposable income. That buys groceries, whatever entertainment, and account for crazy fluctuations like car insurance increasing $100/m because reasons, or your electric bill going from $150/m to $500/m because fuel, or gas doubling, etc.

And don’t give me that bullshite about “they don’t need internet or a cell phone.” Yes they do. It’s 2023. Literally every aspect of the modern world involves you using the internet, from job seeking to banking to paying your bills.

So just stop. This is silly.

Housing payment was over $2200 in my scenario (that is what 37% of gross income would qualify at).
That already includes taxes, insurance, HOA, and PMI. I ran the numbers. Reread the post.

Car insurance 250.
Utility bills 200.
Cell phone at $200? Seriously? Mint mobile should be $80.
Fuel $200
No car note. But sure... save $500/month for future car expenses.
Wtf is consumables? $300 for toothpaste and toilet paper? frick that. Just put it towards the grocery bill.
Internet $65

I've got them at $3000/month before food and consumables.
But that includes saving $500/month (direct intention towards replacement cars but could be for emergency or bill fluctuation).
At $4400 take home, they have $1400 for groceries and consumables each month.
Everything under that goes into savings (there are just 2 of them. This isn't a family of 4 or anything).

Keep in mind that a family of 2 (married filing jointly at $75k/yr) would have would have a federal income tax liability of $713/month.
They are getting a tax refund to help them get ahead as well.

$1400/month for food and consumables for 2 people.
$500/month going into savings to help with car maintenance and/or the purchase of the next vehicle.
I have them purchasing a home at about $250k.
But my link had homes from $175k to $220k as well. Many options.
Posted by TigerFred
Feeding hamsters
Member since Aug 2003
27869 posts
Posted on 12/20/23 at 7:18 pm to
If he averages 10 hours a week overtime that’s 80K a year.
Posted by Chucktown_Badger
The banks of the Ashley River
Member since May 2013
37019 posts
Posted on 12/20/23 at 7:20 pm to
From August 2023.

LINK

quote:

Key Points

• The average stock market return is 10% annually in the U.S., while the actual return may vary widely from year to year and is closer to 6-7% when adjusted for inflation.

The average stock market return for the last 5 years was 11.33% (7.28% when adjusted for inflation), for the last 10 years it was 12.39% (9.48% when adjusted for inflation), for the last 20 years it was 9.75% (7.03% when adjusted for inflation), and for the last 30 years it was 9.90% (7.22% when adjusted for inflation).


Should I rerun the numbers with 11% returns? It'll look a lot better for your down payment.

For fun it's $85,439 after 5 years and $232,911 after 10 years. Compounding interest kids, save early save often.
This post was edited on 12/20/23 at 7:23 pm
Posted by meansonny
ATL
Member since Sep 2012
26797 posts
Posted on 12/20/23 at 7:21 pm to
quote:

quote:
Take home the past 8 years has been $60k a year (average $5k a month).


Then you are lying about grossing $170K.


170k is total comp.
Including 401k (and match), pension, health insurance.

I work for a fortune 100 as a w-2 in an industry that pays 1099. I've got $40k in benefits that don't show up on my paycheck. I max out 401k and hsa on my paycheck.
Posted by meansonny
ATL
Member since Sep 2012
26797 posts
Posted on 12/20/23 at 7:23 pm to
I don't know why he's giving you a hard time on returns.

My 401k doubles every 36 to 52 months (and has over the last 10 years that I've been tracking it).
That includes every downturn the past 10 years.
Posted by ansertiger
Member since Sep 2023
153 posts
Posted on 12/20/23 at 7:23 pm to
quote:

illustrating using things that many young people do

That’s the gripe. Boomers and the like assuming that everyone spends money on this stuff and therefore can’t afford a home, when it’s rent, utilities, student loans, health costs, the price of car ownership, groceries in 2023, wage stagnation etc. that keep many from being able to save buckets of money for ever increasing down payment totals. Just existing and living life is far more expensive than it ever has been.
Posted by meansonny
ATL
Member since Sep 2012
26797 posts
Posted on 12/20/23 at 7:26 pm to
quote:

Just existing and living life is far more expensive than it ever has been.

And many are so young that they think this is the first time America has had strangling inflation.
They think this is the worst it has ever been.
Posted by ansertiger
Member since Sep 2023
153 posts
Posted on 12/20/23 at 7:28 pm to
It’s the worst it’s ever been when you compare average salaries to average home prices, which is the whole point
Posted by jclem11
Chief Nihilist
Member since Nov 2011
9765 posts
Posted on 12/20/23 at 7:37 pm to
Your math is still fricked up dude. Just admit you are full of shite and don’t gross $170K.

In no frickin world is the take home pay on $170K only $60K.

You are full of shite.
Posted by TigerFred
Feeding hamsters
Member since Aug 2003
27869 posts
Posted on 12/20/23 at 7:44 pm to
The problem is you can’t save buckets of money. You have to save little cups of money until that equals one bucket. Then work on the next bucket.

It’s not easy. You have to be disciplined and focused on getting a home if that’s what you want. If not enjoy doing whatever it is that you do.


This is America. You have the opportunity to do whatever it is that you want to do.


The truth is that taxes are killing everyone and not just income taxes. As a country we continue to vote in politicians that are not in the general public’s best interest. In every scenario posted the take home pay is also being hit with sales taxes or property taxes or any other ridiculous fees imposed by politicians. They are all serving the people but getting rich.
Posted by Mushroom1968
Shreveport
Member since Jun 2023
6272 posts
Posted on 12/20/23 at 7:45 pm to
quote:

And don’t give me that bullshite about “they don’t need internet or a cell phone.” Yes they do. It’s 2023. Literally every aspect of the modern world involves you using the internet, from job seeking to banking to paying your bills.


There are many people who need internet or a smart phone for work. But let's be honest, most of it is just addiction and habit, we don't HAVE to have it. If 30 years ago, even cutting prices in half, you told wife and I we had to pay for a smart phone and home internet, we probably wouldn't have bought a home, or we would have struggled with rent. I'm a fireman and wife is a nurse, so technically we are lucky and could get by without a smart phone.

If you are paying $200 a month between couples for cell phone and $100 or whatever a month for home internet, cable. I mean, $300 a month can make a difference on your bills. If in 2000 you told me I'd have to pay $150 for all that I'd laugh and say well I'm not getting it. I know that, because that's what I did. My best friend is a successful business owner and he has a flip phone, he's extremely anti internet. Granted, he admitted a flip phone only saves about $20 a month compared to a smart phone.

ETA: He's the one that got me into shrooms
This post was edited on 12/20/23 at 7:47 pm
Posted by meansonny
ATL
Member since Sep 2012
26797 posts
Posted on 12/20/23 at 7:48 pm to
quote:

It’s the worst it’s ever been when you compare average salaries to average home prices, which is the whole point


The argument is as a barrier to home ownership.

About half of all home sales a year are first time homebuyers.

Better "statistics" would be median income for first time homebuyers and median home price for first time homebuyers.
I would much rather have a discussion on those numbers than the lazy headline catcher stats given in this thread.
Posted by elprez00
Hammond, LA
Member since Sep 2011
31551 posts
Posted on 12/20/23 at 7:49 pm to
quote:

Boomers and the like assuming that everyone spends money on this stuff and therefore can’t afford a home, when it’s rent, utilities, student loans, health costs, the price of car ownership, groceries in 2023, wage stagnation etc. that keep many from being able to save buckets of money for ever increasing down payment totals. Just existing and living life is far more expensive than it ever has been.

Since Hurricane Ida:
- homeowners insurance increased $2600/year
- car insurance increased $1200/year.
- my average electric bill is about $225/ month more. Essentially, my winter bill is now what my highest summer bill used to be. It’s between $125-225 more per month.

It’s comes out to around $500/month straight increase in stuff I have no control over. And yes that’s after shopping around for better rates. And that’s not counting gas, food, and other stuff. I figure I’ve taken about a $12-15k a year “pay cut”. It’s probably worse. Grocery bills that were $65/wk are now $150/wk. Fuel last year was way worse than this year, thankfully that’s trended down.
Posted by Mushroom1968
Shreveport
Member since Jun 2023
6272 posts
Posted on 12/20/23 at 7:51 pm to
quote:

Your math is still fricked up dude. Just admit you are full of shite and don’t gross $170K.

In no frickin world is the take home pay on $170K only $60K.

You are full of shite


Wife and I combined gross around $130k, our net is literally half. Granted I have a pension, but I also put in a 457b, my wife puts very little in her retirement, and yes we've argued about that. He could be putting much more into his, or his HSA. Obamacare was a big detriment to me and my family. Not gonna lie, it was huge.
Posted by meansonny
ATL
Member since Sep 2012
26797 posts
Posted on 12/20/23 at 7:52 pm to
quote:

Your math is still fricked up dude. Just admit you are full of shite and don’t gross $170K.

In no frickin world is the take home pay on $170K only $60K.

You are full of shite.


Since you can't do math...
My total comp is 170k.
40k are benefits not even showing up on my paycheck (insurance and pensions).
My paystub gross is about 130k.
I max 25k on 401k and $7750 in HSA.
In addition, I deduct health insurance, life insurance, auto insurance, and home insurance from my paycheck.
I even deduct charitable giving in my paycheck (company match).
Posted by Mushroom1968
Shreveport
Member since Jun 2023
6272 posts
Posted on 12/20/23 at 7:53 pm to
quote:

Since Hurricane Ida:
- homeowners insurance increased $2600/year
- car insurance increased $1200/year.


Very good point and goes against what I've been saying. Yes, if living in Louisiana, insurance can be a killer. I agree with what you are saying.

ETA: fwiw, and it may sound harsh or shitty, I'll buy my kids the vehicle, but they have to work and pay their own insurance. It is what it is, we ain't rich. I had to pay my own, granted much cheaper, in HS, I also made around $3 an hour.
This post was edited on 12/20/23 at 7:56 pm
Posted by jclem11
Chief Nihilist
Member since Nov 2011
9765 posts
Posted on 12/20/23 at 8:01 pm to
I math very well.

You are burying insurance that no one deducts from a paycheck such as auto and home. Lmao.

At the least you are being slightly dishonest to flex on the internet which is pathetic.
Posted by meansonny
ATL
Member since Sep 2012
26797 posts
Posted on 12/20/23 at 8:03 pm to
quote:

ETA: fwiw, and it may sound harsh or shitty, I'll buy my kids the vehicle, but they have to work and pay their own insurance. It is what it is, we ain't rich. I had to pay my own, granted much cheaper, in HS, I also made around $3 an hour.

We've been having our kids buy their own car and their own insurance.
My son has a $4k Honda.
My daughter saved $8k for a Nissan sentra at 80k miles.
My 16 year old daughter has $8k saved ($14/hr at walmart). But she hasn't found a car yet.
They pay for the car and I title them for the cheaper insurance (then they pay me the cost of adding the vehicle to the policy).

We've returned "the favor" with my oldest in college by covering some of his freshman expenses. He ended up moving back home his sophomore year (didn't find the right living situation) which is why I've been eyeing townhomes and condos in the marietta/sandy springs area.

I've got about $60k liquid and another $55k in a brokerage account which might be a good down-payment on a condo.
Posted by meansonny
ATL
Member since Sep 2012
26797 posts
Posted on 12/20/23 at 8:08 pm to
quote:

You are burying insurance that no one deducts from a paycheck such as auto and home. Lmao.


By no one, you mean tens of thousands of people at my employer. And tens of thousands of people who work at UPS, Ryder, ADP, etc..

I've been able to manipulate my take home. My car insurance went up and I backed down on life insurance. I make more money and I will move my motorcycle insurance back into my payroll deduction. Etc..

The point is that I try to manage our entire living expenses not on my gross income but on my take home. As my income goes up, I'm saving more.
Posted by ansertiger
Member since Sep 2023
153 posts
Posted on 12/20/23 at 8:17 pm to
quote:

Better "statistics" would be median income for first time homebuyers and median home price for first time homebuyers.

That would introduce survivorship bias which is very relevant here since you would be excluding everyone who couldn’t buy a home. What you’d be looking for is median income of people in their mid-20s (as a constant) to median home price for first time time homebuyers. (Even this wouldn’t account for the increased costs of expenses compared to wages though, which is every bit as relevant)

I’d love to see that as well, but that sounds very hard to come by. Also guessing that is a large disparity as well, and probably the largest it’s ever been.

If you find that data over the last century or so, please post it here. I’d love to be corrected.


This post was edited on 12/20/23 at 8:42 pm
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