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Started By
Message
re: Storm Watch- Gulf- Tropical Depression- Northward Miss. Valley
Posted on 6/3/20 at 4:38 pm to tiger91
Posted on 6/3/20 at 4:38 pm to tiger91
quote:
We went in mid May and FloraBama was fine.
Meh
I went the weekend before last in the evening and waited in a line and had to be seated upstairs because you had to be seated anywhere you were.
Downstairs was full. Had to order drinks and such only from servers and I think you would go pick up food. wanted a drink and to listen to some music. The wind was howling and blowing drinks off the table and knocking the bartenders stuff all over the place.
It wasn't horrible, just not what I wanted at the time. If I would have went earlier I could have ordered drinks on the beach side and heard music, which would have been better.
1
Posted on 6/3/20 at 4:38 pm to GEAUXmedic
Center reforming to the north ? Or a wobble ?
Either way, both euro and GFS bring deep tropical moisture northward. Never seen a flash flood watch for 6 days. Plenty of instability expected.
Either way, both euro and GFS bring deep tropical moisture northward. Never seen a flash flood watch for 6 days. Plenty of instability expected.
Posted on 6/3/20 at 4:39 pm to GEAUXmedic
Looks like that dip or depression in land is allowing the storm to be in water more. They were expecting the storm to be over land till Friday.
Looks like just a little more wobble and eye will be fully over water.
Looks like just a little more wobble and eye will be fully over water.
Posted on 6/3/20 at 4:45 pm to Mudminnow
quote:
Looks like that dip or depression in land is allowing the storm to be in water more. They were expecting the storm to be over land till Friday.
Looks like just a little more wobble and eye will be fully over water.
This will be interesting if it's a 50/60 mph tropical storm as it starts to head north Friday afternoon compared to a depression like they thought it would be.
This post was edited on 6/3/20 at 4:46 pm
Posted on 6/3/20 at 4:52 pm to notiger1997
This fricking sucks. I haven't seen my parents in six months and the weekend I plan to go, this happens.
God, I hate living here more and more each day.
God, I hate living here more and more each day.
Posted on 6/3/20 at 4:52 pm to LaBR4
That site is just showing the NHC track.
Posted on 6/3/20 at 4:54 pm to GEAUXmedic
Oh ok, thought so. I like to see the exact line all the way through. Even though much further East will feel the impacts. Looks like Monday early AM, conditions will start to deteriorate around the Baton Rouge area.
This post was edited on 6/3/20 at 4:57 pm
Posted on 6/3/20 at 5:11 pm to LaBR4
Levi just said in his latest update that it's not totally out of the question for this to become a cat 1 hurricane before landfall but it's not likely.
GFS has a much weaker system coming into the central LA coast while the EURO has a bit of a stronger, more tightly-wound circulation coming in. Place your bets which one will win.
GFS has a much weaker system coming into the central LA coast while the EURO has a bit of a stronger, more tightly-wound circulation coming in. Place your bets which one will win.
Posted on 6/3/20 at 5:13 pm to TDsngumbo
quote:
GFS has a much weaker system coming into the central LA coast while the EURO has a bit of a stronger, more tightly-wound circulation coming in. Place your bets which one will win.
Not a tough bet. Give me the Euro any day against GFS.
Shear and coolish water temps will be the battle.
Posted on 6/3/20 at 5:15 pm to GEAUXmedic
I'd have to think intensity forecasts are off on this one right now because it was suppose to be on land until friday. These models don't know wtf it's going to do.
This post was edited on 6/3/20 at 5:16 pm
Posted on 6/3/20 at 5:22 pm to deuce985
quote:
I'd have to think intensity forecasts are off on this one right now because it was suppose to be on land until friday
They're not that far off for Louisiana. It's early June, it can't really get much stronger than 75-80 mph imo.
The odds of the 65+ storm just increase if it's stays just on the coast and holds the circulation together. That'll let it fight off the dry air longer and take more advantage of the outflow enhancement Saturday.
Brings more impacts into Louisiana vs farther east.
Posted on 6/3/20 at 5:25 pm to Duke
Hey Duke...any storm surge predictions yet?
Posted on 6/3/20 at 6:24 pm to TigerNAtux
Youtube Video with Jack Sillin Good explanation.
Posted on 6/3/20 at 6:27 pm to deuce985
quote:
I'd have to think intensity forecasts are off on this one right now because it was suppose to be on land until friday. These models don't know wtf it's going to do.
They're missing by like 20 miles. That's basically a rounding error, except in this case it's over water v land so it matters slightly more than normal.
As Duke said, intensity is going to be an hard to ramp up considering the steering forces that will bring it north.
Posted on 6/3/20 at 6:41 pm to slackster
Although lost at times, the 18z HWRF is much stronger. Looking at 985mb due south of cenla coast
Posted on 6/3/20 at 7:03 pm to Zephyrius
Anybody want to give me a forecast for ono island? Is everyone else moving their boats or keeping them on the lifts?
Posted on 6/3/20 at 7:08 pm to TutHillTiger
SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.3N 91.8W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM S OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.3N 91.8W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM S OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES
Posted on 6/3/20 at 7:10 pm to The Boat
quote:
Shear and coolish water temps will be the battle.
did I imagine this or didn't someone post an image earlier in this thread showing a good size spot of somewhat hot water right in the middle of the Gulf... where Cristobal is supposed to head straight for?
Posted on 6/3/20 at 7:18 pm to rt3
quote:
did I imagine this or didn't someone post an image earlier in this thread showing a good size spot of somewhat hot water right in the middle of the Gulf... where Cristobal is supposed to head straight for?
It's a warm patch but warm for early June.
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