re: Storm Update:- Ida Moves Away - The Cleanup Begins...

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Its 20 miles east maybe.

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How big are yall seeing?

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Meteorologist Nick Mikulas
Models continue to converge on a Louisiana landfall of a tropical system in the next several days. Overnight models have brought some new clues as to how this will play out, so here’s the latest on the newly classified Tropical Depression 9.
LOCATION...16.9N 79.2W
ABOUT 115 MI...180 KM SSW OF NEGRIL JAMAICA
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
Models are still shifting a bit, but the general idea of a Louisiana landfall is increasing. I’d say this system has a 70% chance of making landfall somewhere along the Louisiana coast. The fact that it’s forming along the northern side of the wave means a lower chance this heads for Texas. And a ridge of high pressure should block this from going much further east than New Orleans. Even within that relatively small window, there are big impacts to our local forecast. While individual models have had pretty big swings in landfall location, the ensemble trend has been slowly to the east. We’ll see if that stabilizes. Given the factors I mentioned, I think it will. So what does that mean for us? As you know, the west side of a tropical system is typically the weaker side. Of course, in a well developed hurricane, even if you are 50 miles west of the center, you’ll still have a significant impact. But the impacts quickly lessen as you head further west. Since we don’t know exactly where this will make landfall, or have a narrow enough window yet, I can’t go parish by parish. I can say that the eastward shift has really sped up the threat for local issues. Landfall could be as early as Sunday evening. That’s a significant change from yesterday. That means we are about 3 days from this being on our doorstep. That timing could shift a bit, but plan on being ready by Sunday morning.
NHC brings this to near major hurricane status with wind of 110 mph. Intensity forecasts are very hard, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see this storm end up stronger than that. Another concern is the rainfall. It doesn’t seem like this storm will stall out, but it will provably be moving around 7-10 mph. The slower it moves, the more rain we get along, and east of the center. WPC is already showing a large area of 5-10 inches of rain inland, and that will be refined as we get closer. There could easily be a corridor of 10+ inches of rain. This is all track dependent, so that’s just a general idea of what this storm will do near and east of the center.
Morning and afternoon models should shed more light on things. The Hurricane Hunter aircraft will also be in TD 9 later today, and will give me more information to work with. For now, stay tuned, and start preparing. There are still scenarios where we miss the bad stuff, but we are squarely in the middle of the threat zone in Central Louisiana. I’ll update this evening. Hopefully before 7:00 PM.

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remove the front panel if it isnt raining and leave the top off. if you have a pop up shade tent, put that over it and remove all the sides to allow it to stay as cool as possible.

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