re: Storm Update:- Ida Moves Away - The Cleanup Begins...

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Weren't the models not really showing much intensification unti through the Yucatan and after the ULL got out the way/

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I thought that also.

Your comment reminded me of something written about Hurricane Camille relative to its spectacular intensification to Cat 5.

A ULL over Mississippi had been involved (it was specifically referred to as a cold pool of air aloft). I just heard a meteorologist refer to the ULL over Florida as “cool air in the upper atmosphere” moving out or dissipating. Are “cold air” and “cool air” synonymous? Or, can there be dramatic differences between them?

The point being that, in Camille’s case, the dissipation of the ULL was called “melding with the surrounding environment” and that event coincided exactly with Camille’s then record pressure drop and wind speed increase. To cap it off, the ULL left a shear line behind that Camille shifted course eastward to follow into the Bay Saint Louis landfall instead of slightly west of the mouth of the Mississippi River which had been forecast. Small shift east for sure but crucial for New Orleans.

Is it possible, do you think, that this ULL is influencing the models towards later dramatic intensification you referred to and the shift in tracks eastward? Maybe one of our professional advisors has a thought on this.

I’m sorry I don’t have a better reference or link. It’s from a college text on Tropical Meteorology current in early to mid 70s.