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Posted on 8/28/21 at 1:13 pm to Capt ST
quote:
How long does an ERC typically take?
It's at least 12 hours to complete one, if the storm doesn't abort it. Often it'll take a day. In a few cases, it never really completes. Ike, IIRC, spent the entire run over the gulf trying to replace it's eyewall.
Don't bank on an ERC here though, since it's just ramping up the first one.
Posted on 8/28/21 at 1:13 pm to Cooler
quote:
What is the order for updating Track / Speed? 7 and 1 is Track and 4 and 10 is speed?
Less time than an eye replacement cycle
Posted on 8/28/21 at 1:13 pm to Duke
We need an acronym cheat sheet. What does ERC mean?
Nevermind.
Nevermind.
This post was edited on 8/28/21 at 1:14 pm
Posted on 8/28/21 at 1:14 pm to Bobby OG Johnson
quote:
Tomer Burg
@burgwx
Close-up of Hurricane #Ida's eye over the last hour, with a new convective burst to the north of the eye, as it reaches Category 2 intensity:
Posted on 8/28/21 at 1:14 pm to Duke
quote:
What people need to remember is Cat 2 conditions will frick stuff up because 100 with gusts 130+ will frick stuff up.
Average base design wind speed in BR is 124 mph.
Older homes and/or poor construction would be a major issue with just sustained 100 mph.
Posted on 8/28/21 at 1:14 pm to tigafan4life
Teedy is praying this storm heads East. Gubment dollars.
Posted on 8/28/21 at 1:15 pm to tigafan4life
Well Peej fricked me by making ERC (eye replacement cycle) apparently.
I was talking about, what I'm going to call EWRC for now on, is an eyewall replacement cycle. It's when, basically, a storm trades a small more intense core for a larger windfield and larger core.
I was talking about, what I'm going to call EWRC for now on, is an eyewall replacement cycle. It's when, basically, a storm trades a small more intense core for a larger windfield and larger core.
Posted on 8/28/21 at 1:15 pm to tigafan4life
Doesn’t matter if Nola gets eye or not
Latoyal better worry about getting 12+ in rain 12 hours
Latoyal better worry about getting 12+ in rain 12 hours
Posted on 8/28/21 at 1:16 pm to Midtiger farm
She will still get reflected with 80% of the vote.
Posted on 8/28/21 at 1:16 pm to Midtiger farm
quote:
Latoyal better worry about getting 12+ in rain 12 hours
Why? She won’t be voted out, and federal dollars keep covering her ineptitude
Posted on 8/28/21 at 1:16 pm to Duke
quote:
I really like Jack's "cone", might be a useful tool going forward in the thread.
He did pretty well with it for Laura last year.
I like it because it uses satellite center fixes. It takes out the guesswork, and is really useful for when no planes are in the storm.
This post was edited on 8/28/21 at 1:17 pm
Posted on 8/28/21 at 1:16 pm to Duke
quote:
Well Peej fricked me by making ERC (eye replacement cycle) apparently.
Recycle
Posted on 8/28/21 at 1:17 pm to BallsEleven
That’s it, couldn’t remember exactly but I knew it was dumb
Posted on 8/28/21 at 1:17 pm to Duke
Can someone tell me if this "jog" east changes the Orange Beach outlook?
Posted on 8/28/21 at 1:17 pm to Midtiger farm
quote:
Latoyal better worry about getting 12+ in rain 12 hours
The pumps should be able to handle that for the most part (the ones that are working at least)
It’s when NOLA gets 5 inches in 45 minutes is when there’s a problem
Posted on 8/28/21 at 1:17 pm to Duke
Thanks sir
Posted on 8/28/21 at 1:17 pm to Thib-a-doe Tiger
quote:
That’s it, couldn’t remember exactly but I knew it was dumb
This is a green hurricane.
Posted on 8/28/21 at 1:18 pm to Thib-a-doe Tiger
FWIW, I went through the eyewall of a Cat 2 last year and I will NEVER do it again. It's fricking terrifying. If you're in the path of this thing, get out now.
Posted on 8/28/21 at 1:18 pm to BallsEleven
You will be ok…… 
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