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re: Storm Update:- Ida Moves Away - The Cleanup Begins...

Posted on 8/28/21 at 9:26 am to
Posted by Roscoe
Member since Sep 2007
3092 posts
Posted on 8/28/21 at 9:26 am to
quote:


Hurricane Ida - Hurricane Warning for LA - Follow NHC & Local NWS Offices for Updates
I was watching the weather channel and didn’t hear that. But awesome if it comes in at a 2.


At 9:05, the guy talks about the future and whether conditions are ripe for this thing to get stronger. He says they are definitely seeing signs it is strengthening and will continue to strengthen. But he says to notice the outflow is restricted on the southern side. He says there is a bit of southerly wind sheer that’s probably holding this thing back a little. And he says that would be good news if that’s the case because he doesn’t like what he sees with the heat content that will provide fuel as it closes in on the coast and allow it to get to major hurricane status, which is what the majority of the major weather models are suggesting. However, he then says the consensus now is that this is potentially a major hurricane, but the good news here is that the model forecast have generally come down a little bit in intensity. Whether that is a short term shift, or long term trend, he isn’t sure. But based on the CURRENT models, it’s more likely a Cat 2 or low Cat 3.
Posted by RidiculousHype
The Hatch
Member since Sep 2007
10969 posts
Posted on 8/28/21 at 9:27 am to
quote:

It’s probably a 2 now

Yeah it’s looking pretty nasty for sure

Posted by RummelTiger
Official TD Sauces Club Member
Member since Aug 2004
93702 posts
Posted on 8/28/21 at 9:27 am to
quote:

TWC is showing 100 mph in New Iberia but their little corner graphic shows Lafayette getting 60 mph gusts .... that can't be right, right ?


Honestly, don’t even watch the garbage they put out. They’re hacks.

I’d listen to Peej before them.
Posted by Midtiger farm
Member since Nov 2014
6229 posts
Posted on 8/28/21 at 9:28 am to
quote:

They are dumb for telling the truth? That’s the problem with the media today.


Because they don't expand on the comment

Did they show the 06z hwrf who was one of the best at intensity last year?

Did they show last 2 runs of the gfs and euro and compare the change in pressure?

The NHC might lower forecast to a 3 in half and hour but it a 10mph drop in wind going to make that much of a difference?
Posted by Thib-a-doe Tiger
Member since Nov 2012
36774 posts
Posted on 8/28/21 at 9:28 am to
quote:

I’d listen to Peej before them.



They don’t talk in all caps. I’m sticking with TWC
Posted by mark65mc
Baton Rouge
Member since Dec 2007
11540 posts
Posted on 8/28/21 at 9:29 am to
quote:

If they ship out refugees, I mean evacuees, from New Orleans after the storm, where will they go this time?



I hear Martha’s Vineyard is nice this time of year.
Posted by Cosmo
glassman's guest house
Member since Oct 2003
131901 posts
Posted on 8/28/21 at 9:29 am to
quote:

TWC is showing 100 mph in New Iberia but their little corner graphic shows Lafayette getting 60 mph gusts .... that can't be right, right ?



Guy earlier posted graphs from private mets that seemed realistic and they were in line with that
Posted by Ingeniero
Baton Rouge
Member since Dec 2013
23194 posts
Posted on 8/28/21 at 9:30 am to
Anyone got tips for cooking during a power outage? We have a gas stove but there's a lockout function that won't let me light the burners with a match if there's no power
Posted by Bayou_Tiger_225
Third Earth
Member since Mar 2016
12929 posts
Posted on 8/28/21 at 9:30 am to
quote:

Did they show the 06z hwrf who was one of the best at intensity last year?

This. Until the HWRF comes down I'll remain skeptical.

Last year with Laura the GFS and Euro had Laura weaker than what it was. The HWRF nailed it.
Posted by Cosmo
glassman's guest house
Member since Oct 2003
131901 posts
Posted on 8/28/21 at 9:30 am to
quote:

Did they show the 06z hwrf who was one of the best at intensity last year?


Yeah but even HWRF is trending towards a smaller slightly weaker storm. Still low end cat 4 though
Posted by Tigers2010a
Member since Jul 2021
3627 posts
Posted on 8/28/21 at 9:30 am to
quote:

It was miserably hot after Katrina.


Yes but looking at my local forecast this time, they aren't showing temps over 88 through next Saturday. Not as hot hopefully.
Posted by Hold That Tiger 10
Member since Oct 2013
25629 posts
Posted on 8/28/21 at 9:31 am to
quote:


I’d listen to Peej before them


Posted by Icansee4miles
Trolling the Tickfaw
Member since Jan 2007
32275 posts
Posted on 8/28/21 at 9:31 am to
Mike Seidel always at Ground Zero because no one does the miserable drowned rat look nearly as well as he does. They must be hoping for some rooftop rescues to send Cantore to New Orleans instead of closer to the fray
Posted by Thib-a-doe Tiger
Member since Nov 2012
36774 posts
Posted on 8/28/21 at 9:31 am to
quote:

Anyone got tips for cooking during a power outage? We have a gas stove but there's a lockout function that won't let me light the burners with a match if there's no power



Propane grill. Or any grill really. Will take longer to boil anything but it works
Posted by Tigerfan1274
Member since May 2019
4744 posts
Posted on 8/28/21 at 9:32 am to
quote:

TWC is showing 100 mph in New Iberia but their little corner graphic shows Lafayette getting 60 mph gusts .... that can't be right, right ?


This seems very possible to me. I don't think Lafayette would be getting very many of these, but it certainly seems possible.
Posted by tiger91
In my own little world
Member since Nov 2005
40242 posts
Posted on 8/28/21 at 9:32 am to
It's oddly really pretty. That blowing up over Cuba? Scary yes, but so pretty in a weird way.
Posted by Purple Spoon
Hoth
Member since Feb 2005
20982 posts
Posted on 8/28/21 at 9:33 am to
quote:

Because they don't expand on the comment

Did they show the 06z hwrf who was one of the best at intensity last year?

Did they show last 2 runs of the gfs and euro and compare the change in pressure?

The NHC might lower forecast to a 3 in half and hour but it a 10mph drop in wind going to make that much of a difference?



Weather media is more for ratings than anything. Especially in an age where we have access to the same information in real time as they do.
Posted by Oates Mustache
Member since Oct 2011
26630 posts
Posted on 8/28/21 at 9:33 am to
quote:

Yeah but even HWRF is trending towards a smaller slightly weaker storm. Still low end cat 4 though


A cat 4 hurricane is classified as "catastophic damage"

Posted by dukke v
PLUTO
Member since Jul 2006
216545 posts
Posted on 8/28/21 at 9:33 am to
Posted by Hold That Tiger 10
Member since Oct 2013
25629 posts
Posted on 8/28/21 at 9:34 am to
I don't think that was meant as a compliment towards you, dumbass.
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