re: Storm Update:- Ida Moves Away - The Cleanup Begins...

Time to update OP title - HURRICANE Ida

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Go take a look at these fools in Houston arguing that it will still go there.

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Sure hope not, we are packing the camper and heading just past beaumont

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I'm staying with my sister's dog and cat. Full house generator and a stocked bar.

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Yell YEAH!!

Where is Duke to hold me? The general public is starting to post more and more…

So Wade Hampton, the meteorologist for KPLC just posted this….

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Ida is strengthening now as it approaches Cuba, as of 10 a.m. winds are up to 65 mph. There as been NO change to the forecast since yesterday, and that is good news.

But we can NOT take a victory lap just yet. Unfortunately the forecast cone is still over most of SWLA, and it would only take a shift westward of 50 miles to bring far worse conditions to our area. And computer models cannot forecast such tiny shifts or even wobbles that strong hurricanes often do as the approach land.

The new 12z run of the GFS model is the first picture here and it still shows a landfall between Vermilion Bay and Terrebonne Bay. That means the new data did not change anything with the track of Ida, which is what we wanted to see. Now again, I must stress that if the high east of Florida strengthens between now and Sunday the track could still be forced west. This is why I can not tell you that SWLA is in the clear, but the picture is better for us than for folks in SELA.

The second picture is the latest ensemble of the GFS and you will notice a tight clustering near the area mentioned above. But do note that there are some tracks over SWLA, which again is why we can not let our guard down yet. As landfall approaches the models should begin to cluster even more on the landfall location and we might be able to then say some areas are in the clear. But that won't happen until later today or Saturday.

And this no doubt looks to make landfall as a major hurricane and will likely be strengthening right up until landfall. It is still too early to get too specific on direct impacts to SWLA. But it is safe to say we will likely experience northerly winds of 30 to 60 mph with higher gusts farther east closer to the storm. And impacts would be less farther inland and closer to the Sabine Rive which would be farthest from the storm. We likely would see rain-bands with locally heavy rain possible at time along with a few tornadoes. Storm surge is likely to very minimal, though tides may run higher than normal and could cause some flooding in the normal posts of Cameron Parish. Now obviously those impacts are based on the forecast track remaining well east of here. If the track shifts those impacts increase.

So what should you do here in SWLA? Let's plan as if it is going to be worse, in case it is. I would still say at least make sure any loose items outside your home are secured or brought inside. Keep your vehicle fueled up in case you need to evacuate on short notice. Keep enough supplies to get through couple of days on your own, just in case power goes out. Know what you would do if the track shifts west and you need to ramp up your plans quickly. That includes know if you are evacuating and where to if so.

I like the trends that we continue to see, but a slight shift worries me a lot. I will not rest easy until this storm is gone and no longer a threat. So continue to follow us for updates over the weekend. We will be doing extra coverage on TV too over the weekend. No matter what stay calm, don't panic; try not to worry to much. And we will all get through this together we are #SWLASTRONG

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Directly below, this is asked…..

HMON



Seems like an outlier for now.

The covid risk is high in the panel on HTV

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Another thing about restoring power this year - with this slow supply chain environment, it may not be the same lead times to getting your power back on.

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Slow down a little. For a storm event like this parts would find their way down here, even if they come from other utilities. It’s not like Minnesota Power and Light is gonna sit on a bunch of transformers they have in stock and tell Entergy to pound sand.

Supply chain network sharing throughout utilities is common and happens every day.

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HMON taking it further west by at least 30 miles or so. That's an interesting development...

HWRF going a little east of the 6z run. Still nothing major on either shift, but a big deal for Houma/Lafayette corridors.

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I cant find an appropriate gif for how tight my a-hole is. I feel thibodaux and Morgan City is fricked wherever this goes